The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday’s Showdown slate features the New York Yankees at the Boston Red Sox at 8:08 pm ET. We’ll be using Bales Player Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
Pitchers
The two pitchers on the mound today are:
- Gerritt Cole (R)
- Nathan Eovaldi (R)
Gerrit Cole is priced at $15,600 for the CPT slot and $10,400 for UTIL. He has the highest floor/Ceiling Projection according to the Player Model and will likely be the most popular player. Cole has a 14.5% swinging-strike rate, 12.06 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, and 2.92 FIP.
His last three starts of the season haven’t been great, though. He allowed five, three, and seven earned runs in six, six, and 5.2 innings, respectively. He did strike out six, six, and seven batters, however. One of those games was against the Red Sox in Boston – six innings, five hits, three earned runs, three walks, six strikeouts, and one home run allowed. In three prior meetings against Boston, Cole went:
- Five innings, six hits, three earned runs, two walks, eight strikeouts, and one home run in Boston
- Six innings, five hits, one earned run, two walks, and 11 strikeouts in New York
- Five innings, eight hits, five earned runs, two walks, six strikeouts, and three home runs in Boston
The Red Sox have gotten to Cole at home this season, so there is some merit to fading him. That said, it’s the playoffs, and the sample size of three games is super small. Projected Ownership numbers will be a huge factor in whether to Cole or not.
Nathan Eovaldi doesn’t have the gaudy strikeout numbers of Cole, but the FIP is lower at 2.79, and he’s done better at suppressing home runs (0.74 HR/9 compared to 1.19 for Cole). Eovaldi just faced the Yankees two starts ago in Boston and got lit up – 2.2 innings, seven hits, seven earned runs, two walks, and one home run. In three other starts against the Yankees, he went:
- Five innings, seven hits, two earned runs, one walk, six strikeouts, and two home runs in New York
- 7.2 innings, seven hits, two earned runs, and eight strikeouts in Boston
- Five innings, two hits, one earned run, one walk, and seven strikeouts in New York
The Yankees are sixth in strikeouts and 11th in ISO against right-handed pitching, while the Red Sox are 14th in strikeouts and second in ISO.
As of now, I am leaning towards going with Eovaldi due to recency bias and being at home. Stacking against Cole and the Yankees bullpen (fifth-lowest FIP) is scary, but Cole has given up more home runs on the road, and the FIP is 3.22 versus 2.28 at home. Much will depend on projected ownership, though.
Hitters
Studs
Aaron Judge is priced at $14,700 CPT and $9,800 UTIL. He had 39 home runs, 89 runs, 98 RBI, and six stolen bases during the regular season. The slash was .287/.373/.544 with a .256 ISO. The walk rate was 11.8%, while the strikeout rate was 25%. What’s most impressive for me, though, is that the numbers against both righties and lefties are almost identical. He does have a little more power against lefties, but that’s splitting hairs. He bats third in the lineup, and Eovaldi does have slight reverse splits as both the HR/9 and FIP are higher against righties than lefties. I’m not a huge BVP guy, but in his career, Judge is 9-for-23 with two doubles and a home run with a 12.5% strikeout rate.
Giancarlo Stanton is priced at $13,200 CPT and $8,800 UTIL. He had 35 home runs and 97 RBI during the regular season. The slash was .273/.354/.516 with a .243 ISO. The walk rate was 10.9%, while the strikeout rate was 27.1%. Against Eovaldi, he’s gone 9-for-30 with two doubles and two home runs, but the strikeout rate is 29%. No risk it no biscuit, right?
Rafael Devers is the highest-priced batter on the slate at $15,900 CPT and $10,600 UTIL. In 21 at-bats against Cole, he has notched five hits, with three of those being home runs. He will likely bat cleanup for the Red Sox and is arguably the best hitter for Boston.
On the season, he had 38 home runs, 101 runs, 113 RBI, and five stolen bases. The slash was .279/.352/.538 with a .259 ISO. The walk rate was 9.3%, while the strikeout rate was 21.5%. As with most lefties, he has more power against righties: .341 ISO vs. .128 against lefties. If paying up, I’d probably want one of the pitchers, but going Devers and Eovaldi could be somewhat unique.
Kyle Schwarber is priced at $15,000 CPT and $10,000 UTIL. He had 32 home runs, 76 runs, and 71 RBI with two teams this season. The slash was .266/.374/.554 with a .288 ISO. The walk rate was 13.6%, while the strikeout rate was 27%. Against right-handed pitching, the ISO was .358 compared to .130 against lefties. His history against Cole hasn’t been great as he’s gone 5-for-20 with a home run and a 27.3% strikeout rate, but if Cole is going to serve up a home run, it will likely be to a lefty. The HR/9 is 1.48 compared to 0.97 to righties. Schwarber will likely bat second in the lineup.
Values and Punts
Brett Gardner isn’t sexy by any means. He had 10 home runs, 47 runs, 39 RBI, and four stolen bases in 461 plate appearances. He is priced at the minimum and will likely start, bat seventh in the lineup, and he does have a little pop and a little speed to provide multiple paths to fantasy goodies. I can’t ask for much more for $4,000. He’s the best option to provide salary relief.
Gio Urshela is priced at $5,400 and is projected to bat sixth in the lineup. The splits against righties haven’t been great this season (.241/.280/.386 slash with a .145 ISO), but he has gone 4-for-15 with a double and home run against Eovaldi. I know, small sample size, but he’s cheap.
Alex Verdugo is priced at $5,800 and will likely bat fifth in the lineup. Verdugo doesn’t have much pop, as the ISO is only .138. He did have 13 home runs, 88 runs, 63 RBI, and six stolen bases during the regular season. He’s also had some success against Cole in the past – 4-for-14 with two doubles and a home run.
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Photo Credit: New York Yankees/Getty Images
Picture: Aaron Judge
