Game 6 of the World Series, which begins on Tuesday at 8:07 p.m. ET, will see a terrific pitching rematch from Game 2 as Stephen Strasburg once again faces Justin Verlander.
The single-game DFS format will take center stage in the World Series. Let’s start by taking a brief look at the different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Format
FanDuel will use its traditional single-game format. That means you’ll have to roster one MVP, one All-Star, and three utilities. Your MVP will get a 2x scoring bonus while your All-Star will get a 1.5x scoring bonus. You don’t need to pay additional salary to roster players in those premium spots.
FanDuel also features only hitters. You won’t have to worry about choosing between any of the pitchers on either roster and can focus simply on which batters you think will score the most fantasy points.
The DraftKings format is a little more complicated — you have to roster six players instead of five, and you’ll have to choose between batters and pitchers. DraftKings also features a captain, who earns a 1.5x scoring multiplier but will cost 1.5x their traditional salary.
Relief pitchers also become viable options in this format. They aren’t as dominant as they were in previous seasons — having earned more points for innings pitched and strikeouts than starting pitchers last year — but they can still provide excellent value at their current salaries. Most of the relievers are priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, so pitchers who have the potential to pitch multiple innings are particularly intriguing.
Pitchers
Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander finished fourth and fifth respectively in xFIP in 2019, but Strasburg (6 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 7 K) got the better of Verlander (6 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 6 K) in the Nationals’ 12-3 Game 2 victory.
Verlander recorded 21 swinging strikes, to Strasburg’s 11 in that contest – the Nationals were just able to convert with runners in scoring position.
The two share comparable batted-ball data, allowing the same average exit velocity (87.3 mph), and a similar hard-hit rate (33.3% for Verlander; 33.8% for Strasburg).
The difference in their profiles comes down to strikeout-minus-walk rate, where Verlander held a seven percent advantage – finishing with the second-best K-BB% in baseball behind Gerrit Cole – while Strasburg finished 10th.
Between his edge in strikeout ability, and the fact that oddsmakers set the Astros as a -175 favorite (implied 63.6%) in Game 6, Verlander rates slightly higher than Strasburg in our MLB Models for Tuesday, even though Strasburg has averaged more DraftKings PPG both over the past year (26.8 to 20.7) and the previous month (26.2 to 18.5).
The pair lead the slate in expected Plus/Minus, but Verlander has the edge in average projection (26.3 to 23.9), floor (3.6 to 3.2) and ceiling (43.3 to 39.8), and is the more valuable selection at a price point just $200 above his counterpart.
The salary gap was $800 before Game 2, but Verlander’s cost has come down $400 since that start, while Strasburg has seen a $200 salary increase following the win.
I don’t anticipate that any relievers are in line for multiple-inning roles on Tuesday, though its possible that either Patrick Corbin or Max Scherzer could make a relief appearance in an elimination game for the Nats.
However, Will Harris seems to be the most likely reliever to enter any close contest. The Astros’ righty has nine shutout innings during this postseason, allowing just six baserunners against 11 strikeouts while averaging 3.9 PPG on DraftKings.
A.J. Hinch will deploy Harris – who has especially excellent splits against lefties – in any close game, and he’s worth considering at the minimum salary ($3,000) on DraftKings.
Batters
Astros Projected Lineup
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. Michael Brantley (L)
- 4. Alex Bregman (R)
- 5. Yuli Gurriel (R)
- 6. Carlos Correa (R)
- 7. Yordan Alvarez (L)
- 8. Robinson Chirinos (R)
- 9. Josh Reddick (L)
George Springer has the highest rating amongst position players in our MLB Models for Game 6, again showing the highest average projection (9.1), floor (2.1), and ceiling (30.8). Including the postseason, Springer has paced for more than 50 home runs while hitting out of the leadoff spot and has the eighth-best regular season ISO amongst all hitters (min. 450 PA).
Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman have seen a price drop of $400 and $200 respectively over Game 2. Altuve has been the more valuable fantasy hitter both over the past month (14.3 PPG to 11 PPG) and over the past year (12.9 PPG to 12.2 PPG). He has hits in 15 of 16 postseason games, and our models much prefer Altuve in Game 6.
Michael Brantley (146 wRC+ against RHP) remains the preferred split option. Brantley’s cost relative to his No. 3 lineup spot makes him the third highest-rated batter on the slate (behind Springer and Altuve) – despite a $600 price hike since Game 2.
Yordan Alvarez (181 wRC+ against RHP) broke out for three hits in Game 5 (on scorched batted balls of 100.5 mph, 106.4 mph, and 106.9 mph) and still seems primed for a multi-homer game.
Carlos Correa doubled in Game 3, walked three times in Game 4, and homered in Game 5 (while nearly hitting another – a 103.5 mph flyout), so he appears to be heating up.
Yuli Gurriel remains the forgotten man amid a six-game hitting streak. His price is down $400 since Game 2, and he should be worth a long look.
Our models love Martin Maldonado once again, despite his career .211 expected batting average. He brought his average exit velocity up from the bottom 5% of the league to the 23rd percentile this season while also doubling his walk rate.
Kyle Tucker is one to consider if he starts over Josh Reddick and his reverse splits. Tucker, the preseason No. 12 prospect in MLB, posted 38 homers and 35 steals over 147 games between Triple-A and the majors this year, and he has a dynamic set of tools.
Nationals Projected Lineup
- 1. Trea Turner (R)
- 2. Adam Eaton (L)
- 3. Anthony Rendon (R)
- 4. Juan Soto (L)
- 5. Howie Kendrick (R)
- 6. Asdrubal Cabrera (S)
- 7. Ryan Zimmermann (R)
- 8. Kurt Suzuki (R)
- 9. Victor Robles (L)
Asdrubal Cabrera has the most experience against Verlander, going 21-for-76 with six doubles, three homers, and eight walks. But he has also struck out 30 times in those 84 regular-season plate appearances (35.7%) and also struck out all three times that he faced Verlander in Game 2 – though he’s also now $800 less expensive.
Kurt Suzuki is 14-for-42 (.333 average) lifetime against Verlander, and also singled and homered off of the future Hall-of-Famer in Game 2. Suzuki has missed the past two games with a hip-flexor injury but could prove to be a sneaky selection if he’s included in the Game 6 lineup. However, Suzuki is also the second-lowest rated player in our MLB Models for Game 6.
Similarly, our models are incredibly down on Victor Robles, who has the lowest average exit velocity (87 mph) and shortest average flyball distance (191 feet) of any Game 6 regular, and Ryan Zimmermann, who posted an 89 wRC+ this season following a resurgent (118 wRC+) 2018.
Trea Turner only has two hits in the World Series, with one home run and one steal in the playoffs, but he retains the highest ceiling projection (27) for any Nationals hitter and has seen a $200 price drop since Game 2.
Adam Eaton is 0-for-7 over the past two games after his price hit a peak of $9,200. It’s back down to $7,200, just $200 more than his Game 2 cost, putting Eaton back into consideration given his split (career wRC+) against right-handed pitching (98 wRC+ vs. LHP)
Juan Soto has been the Nats’ most consistent postseason hitter, averaging 12.2 PPG – second amongst hitters on this slate. He owns a 155 wRC+ against righties, and the Astros didn’t roster any left-handed pitchers. HIs price is only up $200 from Game 2.
Anthony Rendon has averaged 10.3 PPG over the past month and costs $800 more than Soto despite a less favorable split (career 124 wRC+ vs. RHP, 141 wRC+ vs. LHP).
Howie Kendrick is 5-for-23 with six strikeouts against Verlander and went 0-for-3 in Game 2. His batted ball data is amongst the best on the slate (3rd in flyball distance, second in average exit velocity, and third in hard-hit rate) and his 146 wRC+ this year was a career-best. Still, his price ($8,600) has held steady since Game 2, and I would much prefer Brantley or Eaton at a severe discount.
Pictured Above: George Springer
Photo Credit: Shanna Lockwood, USA Today Sports
