Game 5 of the World Series will occur on Sunday at 8:07 p.m. ET, with an unlikely pitching matchup between Gerrit Cole and Joe Ross after Max Scherzer was scratched with neck spasms.
The single-game DFS format will take center stage in the World Series. Let’s start by taking a brief look at the different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Format
FanDuel will use its traditional single-game format. That means you’ll have to roster one MVP, one All-Star, and three utilities. Your MVP will get a 2x scoring bonus, while your All-Star will get a 1.5x scoring bonus. You don’t need to pay additional salary to roster players in those premium spots.
FanDuel also features only hitters. You won’t have to worry about choosing between any of the pitchers on either roster and can focus simply on which batters you think will score the most fantasy points.
The DraftKings format is a little more complicated — you have to roster six players instead of five, and you’ll have to choose between batters and pitchers. DraftKings also features a captain, who earns a 1.5x scoring multiplier but will cost 1.5x their traditional salary.
Relief pitchers also become viable options in this format. They aren’t as dominant as they were in previous seasons — they earned more points for innings pitched and strikeouts than starting pitchers did last year — but they can still provide excellent value at their current salaries. Most of the relievers are priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, so pitchers who have the potential to pitch multiple innings are particularly intriguing.
Pitchers
Gerrit Cole led the AL in FIP, xFIP, swinging-strike rate, strikeout rate, and strikeout minus walk rate this year, while posting career-best marks in all of those listed categories.
He allowed five runs to the Nationals in Game 1, as he wasn’t sharp — falling behind 14 of the 29 batters that he faced.
But he is substantial a -225 favorite (implied 69.2%) against the Nats in Game 5, after posting a 15-0 record with a 1.73 ERA from June through September before allowing just one run over his first 22.2 playoff innings. Cole has thrown at least seven innings in all four of his postseason starts.
Joe Ross will be making his second appearance since Sept. 29, in what was an up and down season as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery.
He has averaged a tick under eight strikeouts per nine innings for his career and pitched to a 2.75 ERA (4.88 xFIP) after rejoining the Nats rotation in August.
Ross tossed two shutout innings (19 pitches) in Game 3 and should be limited to about five innings and 75-80 pitches on Sunday, but at a price point of $6,000, he’s certainly worth consideration.
The primary concern is his split (.389 wOBA vs. LHH, .324 wOBA vs. RHH) against lefties, who have punished Ross throughout his career.
Anibal Sanchez ($8,000) should be available in relief, but Daniel Hudson ($7,600) seems most likely to work multiple innings.
Hudson has a 1.44 ERA, but a 4.68 xFIP since joining the Nats at the trade deadline, and he strikes out less than one batter per inning.
Considering that Ross is cheaper than either Sanchez or Hudson, he seems like the best option.
Batters
Astros Lineup
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. Michael Brantley (L)
- 4. Alex Bregman (R)
- 5. Yuli Gurriel (R)
- 6. Yordan Alvarez (L)
- 7. Carlos Correa (R)
- 8. Martin Maldonado (R)
- 9. Gerrit Cole (R)
George Springer is the highest rated batter in our MLB Models for Game 4, with the highest (1) average projection, (2) ceiling projection, and (3) floor projection. He posted a career-best .314 ISO against right-handed pitching this season — the second-best power measurement on the slate behind…
Yordan Alvarez, who has struggled in the postseason (10-for-49), but posted a 181 wRC+ against righties during his historically excellent rookie year.
Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman have the second- and third-highest batter ceiling and floor projections on the Game 5 slate. Bregman had the big grand slam on Saturday, but our models suggest pivoting back to Altuve for Sunday. The diminutive second baseman recorded his third consecutive multi-hit game on Saturday and has a .365 average with a 1.110 OPS in the playoffs. At 16.1 PPG over the past month, Altuve is 4.6 PPG clear of the other batters on this slate.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Alex Bregman (2) and Jose Altuve (27).
Michael Brantley has every split in his favor against Ross (146 wRC+ vs. RHP) but his salary ($8,000) is at its highest price point of the postseason.
Yuli Gurriel is in the midst of a five-game hitting streak and hits fifth in the Astros lineup, but at $7,200, he’s priced like a bottom of the order bat. I see substantial value on the Cuban, who posted a 140 wRC+ against righties.
Martin Maldonado has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate but also posted a .216 expected batting average this season.
Nationals Lineup
- 1. Trea Turner (R)
- 2. Adam Eaton (L)
- 3. Anthony Rendon (R)
- 4. Juan Soto (L)
- 5. Howie Kendrick (R)
- 6. Ryan Zimmermann (R)
- 7. Victor Robles (R)
- 8. Yan Gomes (R)
- 9. Joe Ross (R)
Victor Robles, Ryan Zimmermann, Howie Kendrick, and Yan Gomes remain the lowest-rated batters on this slate in our MLB Models and are not players that I will consider including in my lineups.
Trea Turner ranks fourth on the slate (and first amongst Nationals batters) in average projection, ceiling projection, and floor projection. In Game 4, he was $200 more expensive than George Springer, but for Game 5, he’s $600 cheaper than Springer.
Adam Eaton is $2,400 more expensive for Game 5 than he was for the same matchup in Game 1 – there is no value remaining at his current price point.
Anthony Rendon ($9,800) and Juan Soto ($9,400) are the first and third most costly batters, but they rank 6th and 7th in terms of ceiling projection, and fifth and ninth by average projection – so you can probably guess that they are both overpriced. I would lean towards Rendon, whose average flyball distance and overall flyball rate create additional extra-base hit opportunities.
Pictured Above: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Photo Credit: Gerrit Cole
