World Series Game 3 DFS Breakdown (Friday, 10/25): Keep Eating with Eaton

Game 3 of the World Series will occur on Friday at 8:07 p.m. ET, with a pitching matchup between Zack Greinke and Anibal Sanchez.

The single-game DFS format will take center stage in the World Series. Let’s start by taking a brief look at the different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel.

Format

FanDuel will use its traditional single-game format. That means you’ll have to roster one MVP, one All-Star, and three utilities. Your MVP will get a 2x scoring bonus, while your All-Star will get a 1.5x scoring bonus. You don’t need to pay additional salary to roster players in those premium spots.

FanDuel also features only hitters. You won’t have to worry about choosing between any of the pitchers on either roster and can focus simply on which batters you think will score the most fantasy points.

The DraftKings format is a little more complicated — you have to roster six players instead of five, and you’ll have to choose between batters and pitchers. DraftKings also features a captain, who earns a 1.5x scoring multiplier but will cost 1.5x their traditional salary.

Relief pitchers also become viable options in this format. They aren’t as dominant as they were in previous seasons — having earned more points for innings pitched and strikeouts than starting pitchers last year — but they can still provide excellent value at their current salaries. Most of the relievers are priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, so pitchers who have the potential to pitch multiple innings are particularly intriguing.

Pitchers

Game 3 features a pair of soft-tossers who limit hard contact, in Zack Greinke and Anibal Sanchez.

Greinke ranks in the 12th percentile in average fastball velocity, while Sanchez is in the eighth percentile, and the pair have allowed a similar average exit velocity (86.8 mph for Greinke, 86.5 mph for Sanchez) in 2019.

They also have a comparable swinging-strike rate (10.5% for Greinke, 10% for Sanchez), but Greinke has the third-best walk rate (3.7%) among starting pitchers, and a 19.4% strikeout minus walk rate (K-BB%). Sanchez’s walk rate is more than double (8.2%) and his K-BB% is nearly half (10.7%) that of Greinke’s metrics.

That difference in command mostly accounts for a gap of more than one run between the fielding independent pitching metrics for Greinke (3.22 FIP, 3.74 xFIP, 3.96 SIERA) and Sanchez (4.44 FIP, 5.10 xFIP, 5.07 SIERA), who ranked near the bottom of the leaderboards for qualified pitchers.

Oddsmakers set the Astros as a -135 favorite (implied 57.4%) in Game 3, and Greinke is the highest-rated player in our MLB Models for Friday. He has averaged 18 DraftKings PPG over the past year, compared to 15.8 for Sanchez, and also owns the highest ceiling projection among all players.

Conversely, Sanchez ranks behind 10 different hitters in terms of ceiling projection.

Josh James (4 PPG), Daniel Hudson (3.9 PPG), Sean Doolittle (3.9 PPG), and Roberto Osuna (3.8 PPG) have been the four most productive relievers between these two teams over the past month. Hudson, Doolittle and Osuna seem likely to come into any close game on Friday, while James could be featured as part of a bullpen day for the Astros in Game 4.

However, the Astros would surely start Gerrit Cole on short rest if they’re down 3-0 in this series, and James could be a sneaky tournament selection on Friday with 112 strikeouts in 67.1 innings (15.02 K/9) between the regular season and playoffs.

Batters

Astros Projected Lineup

• 1. George Springer (R)
• 2. Jose Altuve (R)
• 3. Michael Brantley (L)
• 4. Alex Bregman (R)
• 5. Yuli Gurriel (R)
• 6. Carlos Correa (R)
• 7. Robinson Chirinos (R)
• 8. Josh Reddick (L)
• 9. Zack Greinke (R)

Michael Brantley (146 wRC+ against RHP) is the highest-rated batter on the slate, and he’s all but guaranteed to hit third and play the entire game. He is a contact hitter, with an expected batting average of .297 (95th percentile) in 2019 to go with a 10.4% strikeout rate (98th percentile), after finishing at .307 (98th percentile) and 9.5% (99th percentile) last season.

Josh Reddick has struggled in the playoffs, but his reduced price point ($4,800 on DraftKings) is a potential bargain if he’s included in the Astros lineup.

George Springer retains the highest ceiling and floor projections among batters in our MLB Models for Game 3 and should be a key target. He posted a career-best 156 wRC+ this season and paced for more than 50 home runs.

Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman once again have the second and third highest batter ceiling projections for Game 3. After a three-hit effort in Game 2, Altuve is 19-for-53 (.358 average) with five home runs and a pair of steals in the playoffs and leads all hitters on the slate with 13.2 DraftKings PPG over the past year, and 16.4 PPG over the past month.

Yuli Gurriel has five hits (two doubles, one homer) in his past three games, and is known for his epic hot streaks. Like Brantley, Gurriel is a worthy selection as a high-contact bat, ranking in the 97th percentile in strikeout rate for three consecutive seasons.

Carlos Correa is 8-for-50 in the playoffs after playing just three games in September (and 75 on the season) due to various ailments. He may be playing through an injury, and I would avoid selecting him.

Robinson Chirinos owns the highest line-drive rate (25%) on the slate, but also posted a .209 expected batting average this year, ranking in the bottom one percent amongst all batters.

Nationals Projected Lineup

• 1. Trea Turner (R)
• 2. Adam Eaton (L)
• 3. Anthony Rendon (R)
• 4. Juan Soto (L)
• 5. Howie Kendrick (R)
• 6. Ryan Zimmermann (R)
• 7. Victor Robles (L)
• 8. Kurt Suzuki (R)
• 9. Anibal Sanchez (R)

Adam Eaton is the highest rated Nationals hitter for the third straight game, after posting back-to-back two-hit games, as he continues to get a favorable split (119 WRC+ against right-handed pitching), and will the entire series; the Astros don’t have a single left-handed pitcher on their roster.

Trea Turner ranks fourth among hitters, just behind Altuve and Bregman, in terms of both ceiling and floor projection. I would be surprised if he doesn’t attempt another steal in the World Series — the Nationals will continue to be aggressive in all facets. For his career, Turner has an 84% success rate on stolen base attempts, with a 162-game average of 53 steals and 21 home runs.

Howie Kendrick produced some of the better batted-ball metrics in MLB during his career year, performing at elite levels in exit velocity (92nd percentile), hard-hit rate (94th percentile), expected slugging (98th percentile), xwOBA (98th percentile). He also posted the best-expected batting average (.328) of any hitter.

Asdrubal Cabrera is 16-for-37 for six walks (1.079 OPS) and two strikeouts against Greinke, but he isn’t projected to start. Consider using him if the Nationals decide to play him.

Juan Soto leads all Nationals hitters and ranks second on the slate behind Altuve with 12.7 DraftKings PPG over the past year.

Anthony Rendon led Washington in flyball rate (45%), line-drive rate (21%), and wRC+ (154) in 2019 and is third amongst all hitters on the slate (11.8 PPG) over the past month thanks to a .948 OPS in the postseason.

Kurt Suzuki is 7-for-24 with a homer against Greinke, but he hits lefties (143 wRC+ in 2019) better than he does righties (93 wRC+).

Victor Robles has scored six times in his past four games but also carries the lowest rating for any player on this slate. His average exit velocity (81 mph) and hard-hit rate (23%) were amongst the worst in baseball.

Pictured Above: Adam Eaton
Photo Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports