Game 2 of the World Series, which begins on Wednesday at 8:07 p.m. ET, will see another terrific pitching matchup as Stephen Strasburg faces Justin Verlander.
The single-game DFS format will take center stage in the World Series. Let’s start by taking a brief look at the different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Format
FanDuel will use its traditional single-game format. That means you’ll have to roster one MVP, one All-Star, and three utilities. Your MVP will get a 2x scoring bonus while your All-Star will get a 1.5x scoring bonus. You don’t need to pay additional salary to roster players in those premium spots.
FanDuel also features only hitters. You won’t have to worry about choosing between any of the pitchers on either roster and can focus simply on which batters you think will score the most fantasy points.
The DraftKings format is a little more complicated — you have to roster six players instead of five, and you’ll have to choose between batters and pitchers. DraftKings also features a captain, who earns a 1.5x scoring multiplier but will cost 1.5x their traditional salary.
Relief pitchers also become viable options in this format. They aren’t as dominant as they were in previous seasons — having earned more points for innings pitched and strikeouts than starting pitchers last year — but they can still provide excellent value at their current salaries. Most of the relievers are priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, so pitchers who have the potential to pitch multiple innings are particularly intriguing.
Pitchers
While the Game 1 starters ranked first and second amongst all pitchers in xFIP, Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander finished fourth and fifth respectively in 2019.
Both also have tremendous playoff resumes.
Strasburg has dominated this postseason, with 33 strikeouts against one walk, and his career 1.10 playoff ERA is the third-best all-time (min. five starts). Verlander is 2-2 in the 2019 playoffs, but 14-9 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in his postseason career.
The two share comparable batted-ball data, allowing the same average exit velocity (87.3 mph), and a similar hard-hit rate (33.3% for Verlander; 33.8% for Strasburg).
The difference comes down to strikeout minus walk rate, where Verlander held a seven percent advantage, finishing with the second-best K-BB% in baseball behind Gerrit Cole, while Strasburg finished 10th.
As a reminder, the Astros and Nationals had the lowest swinging-strike rates in the AL and NL, respectively, meaning that both pitchers will have a harder time than usual at racking up the K’s.
Between his edge in strikeout ability, and the fact that oddsmakers set the Astros as a -164 favorite (implied 62%) in Game 2, Verlander rates slightly higher than Strasburg in our MLB Models for Wednesday, even though Strasburg has averaged more DraftKings PPG over the past year (40.3 to 33.4).
I don’t anticipate that any relievers are in line for multiple inning roles on Wednesday. Still, it’s interesting to note that the Nationals used Patrick Corbin for an inning in Game 1, and will continue to deploy their pitchers in unpredictable ways.
Batters
Astros Projected Lineup
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. Michael Brantley (L)
- 4. Alex Bregman (R)
- 5. Yuli Gurriel (R)
- 6. Carlos Correa (R)
- 7. Yordan Alvarez (L)
- 8. Robinson Chirinos (R)
- 9. Josh Reddick (L)
George Springer broke out of his playoff funk in Game 1, recording a pair of hits, walks, runs, and RBIs. Amongst position players, he retains the highest ceiling and floor projections in our MLB Models for Game 2, after posting a career-best 156 wRC+ this season.
Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman have the second and third highest batter ceiling projections for Game 2. Altuve is 16-for-48 (.333 average) with five home runs and a pair of steals in the playoffs and leads all hitters on the slate with 13.1 DraftKings PPG over the past year.
Michael Brantley (146 wRC+ against RHP) and Yordan Alvarez (181 wRC+ against RHP) remain the preferred split options – though Brantley’s cost relative to his No. 3 lineup spot still makes him one of the better bargains on the slate.
Kyle Tucker is one to consider if he starts over Josh Reddick and his reverse splits. Tucker, the preseason No. 12 prospect in MLB, posted 38 homers and 35 steals over 147 games between Triple-A and the majors this year, and he has a dynamic set of tools.
Yuli Gurriel (7.1 PPG) and Carlos Correa (7.2 PPG) have both underachieved over the past month, scoring about two PPG below their season average on DraftKings.
Nationals Projected Lineup
- 1. Trea Turner (R)
- 2. Adam Eaton (L)
- 3. Anthony Rendon (R)
- 4. Juan Soto (L)
- 5. Howie Kendrick (R)
- 6. Asdrubal Cabrera (S)
- 7. Ryan Zimmermann (R)
- 8. Kurt Suzuki (R)
- 9. Victor Robles (L)
Asdrubal Cabrera has the most experience against Verlander, going 21-for-76 with six doubles, three homers, and eight walks. But he has also struck out 30 times in those 84 plate appearances (35.7%), which is probably more telling. Cabrera posted a 99 wRC+ against righties this season, but his career split is pretty much even (105 wRC+ vs. RHP, 106 wRC+ vs. LHP).
Kurt Suzuki is 14-for-42 (.333 average) lifetime against Verlander, but he hits lefties (143 wRC+ in 2019) better than he does righties (93 wRC+).
Trea Turner’s speed factored in early in Game 1 – hitting a leadoff infield single before immediately swiping second base. He retains the highest ceiling projection for any Nationals hitter and should continue to be aggressive with potential baserunning opportunities.
Adam Eaton is the highest rated Nationals hitter once again for Game 2, with his career 119 wRC+ against right-handed pitching (98 wRC+ vs. LHP). Like Brantley, Eaton’s pricepoint is particularly juicy, considering that he’s locked into full playing time hitting in a good lineup spot. However, he is also 7-for-31 with nine strikeouts against Verlander.
Juan Soto showed why he’s a phenom in Game 1, hitting an opposite-field home run onto Houston’s train tracks. He owns a 155 wRC+ against righties, and the Astros don’t have a single left-handed pitcher on their roster to counteract him – relying instead on righties with reverse splits. Soto leads all Nationals hitters with 12.6 DraftKings PPG over the past year.
Anthony Rendon led Washington in flyball rate (45%), line-drive rate (21%), and wRC+ (154) in 2019 and ranks second on the slate behind Yordan Alvarez in average flyball distance.
Howie Kendrick ranks third on this slate in average flyball distance, second in average exit velocity, and third in hard-hit rate. His 146 wRC+ this year was easily a career-best, thanks to a two-year increase in both launch angle and flyball rate. But he Kendrick is also 5-for-23 with six strikeouts against Verlander.
Pictured Above: Justin Verlander
Photo Credit: Erik Williams
