Game 1 of the World Series, which starts on Tuesday at 8:08 p.m. ET, will feature two of the best pitchers in baseball in Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer.
The single-game DFS format will take center stage in the World Series. Let’s start by taking a brief look at the different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Format
FanDuel will use its traditional single-game format. That means you’ll have to roster one MVP, one All-Star, and three utilities. Your MVP will get a 2x scoring bonus while your All-Star will get a 1.5x scoring bonus. You don’t need to pay additional salary to roster players in those premium spots.
FanDuel also features only hitters. You won’t have to worry about choosing between any of the pitchers on either roster and can focus simply on which batters you think will score the most fantasy points.
The DraftKings format is a little more complicated — you have to roster six players instead of five, and you’ll have to choose between batters and pitchers. DraftKings also features a captain, who earns a 1.5x scoring multiplier but will cost 1.5x their traditional salary.
Relief pitchers also become viable options in this format. They aren’t as dominant as they were in previous seasons — having earned more points for innings pitched and strikeouts than starting pitchers last year — but they can still provide excellent value at their current salaries. Most of the relievers are priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, so pitchers who have the potential to pitch multiple innings are particularly intriguing.
Pitchers
Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole led their respective leagues in FIP, xFIP, swinging-strike rate, strikeout rate, and strikeout minus walk rate this year. Each pitcher posted career-best marks in all of the listed categories this season.
Their batted ball data is virtually identical, though our MLB Models slightly prefer Cole, who is a -196 favorite (implied 66%) at home and has somewhat better control over the strike zone. He has also been lights out for five months, posting a 15-0 record with a 1.73 ERA from June through September, before allowing one run over 22.2 playoff innings.
Conversely, Scherzer missed some time in July and August with back and shoulder injuries, and he returned to post a 4.75 ERA (3.05 FIP) over his final seven starts, showing reduced fastball velocity. But after allowing two home runs in the first two innings of the NL Wild Card game, Scherzer has looked in form, allowing one run over his past 18 innings, with seven walks against 25 strikeouts. And his velocity is back to midseason levels.
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31)
It’s hard to go wrong with either pitcher, but both could have a difficult time striking out the opposition.The Astros and Nationals had the lowest swinging strike rates in the AL and NL, respectively.
I don’t anticipate that any relievers are in line for multiple inning roles on Tuesday, but it’s worth noting that the Nationals entered the playoffs with the most losses and the worst ERA ever for a postseason team — giving a boost to Astros hitters in the late innings.
Batters
Astros Projected Lineup
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. Michael Brantley (L)
- 4. Alex Bregman (R)
- 5. Yuli Gurriel (R)
- 6. Carlos Correa (R)
- 7. Yordan Alvarez (L)
- 8. Martin Maldonado (R)
- 9. Josh Reddick (L)
George Springer has been running cold in the 2019 playoffs (.152 average, .518 OPS) but he owns both the highest ceiling projection and amongst the highest floor projections for position players in our MLB Models for Game 1. Springer posted a career-best 156 wRC+ this season, smashing 39 home runs in 122 games — a full-season pace of 51 home runs.
Michael Brantley is the highest-rated position player in this slate, and he also has a strong history against Scherzer — going 15-for-44 with eight doubles, one triple, and a home run; with three strikeouts against one walk. The high number of extra-base hits and the lone strikeout is indicative of something, even in a small sample. Brantley posted a 146 wRC+ against righties this season and should hit third in the Astros order tonight — he’s a must-use.
Jose Altuve (14.8 PPG) and Alex Bregman (11.6 PPG) have been the Astros two most productive DraftKings hitters over the past month, but they are also priced accordingly. Intuitively, more people will be on Altuve tonight after that walk-off home run in Game 6 of the ALCS.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (2) and second baseman Jose Altuve (27).
Yordan Alvarez has been colder than Springer in the playoffs (.171 average, .471 IPS), but the historically dominant rookie had a 181 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, the third-best mark in baseball — and he leads this slate in several important metrics, including hard-hit rate (51%), average flyball distance, average exit velocity, isolated power, and home runs per at-bat.
Josh Reddick is batting 5-for-11 against Scherzer, but four of those hits were singles, and he has stuck out three times. There’s almost nothing telling from that sample, and he’s shown reverse splits over the past two seasons — meaning that he’s hit lefties better than righties. I’ll skip the Astros likely No. 9 hitter, who is three for 22 with seven strikeouts in the playoffs.
Nationals Projected Lineup
- 1. Trea Turner (R)
- 2. Adam Eaton (L)
- 3. Anthony Rendon (R)
- 4. Juan Soto (L)
- 5. Howie Kendrick (R)
- 6. Ryan Zimmermann (R)
- 7. Asdrubal Cabrera (S)
- 8. Kurt Suzuki (R)
- 9. Victor Robles (L)
Trea Turner has the highest ceiling rating of any Nationals hitter, with his power-speed combination (full-season pace of 25 HR, 46 SB this year), and he ranked second on the team in DraftKings PPG. Turner has yet to attempt a steal in the playoffs, but Washington will need to be aggressive will their limited number of baserunners.
Anthony Rendon is the Nationals hottest hitter over the past month, averaging 12.3 points per game on DraftKings – which matches his team-leading DFS points per game for the season. He also led Washington in flyball rate (45%), line-drive rate (21%), and wRC+ (154) in 2019, while totaling 81 extra-base hits. The flyball rate is especially notable, considering that Rendon’s average flyball distance is second amongst all players on this slate.
Adam Eaton is the highest rated Nationals hitter for Game 1, and he has a career 119 wRC+ against right-handed pitching (98 wRC+ vs. LHP). He is hitting .194 in the playoffs but is guaranteed more run-producing opportunities in the No. 2 hole.
Howie Kendrick ranks third on this slate in average flyball distance, second in average exit velocity, and third in hard-hit rate. His 146 wRC+ this year was easily a career-best, thanks to a two-year increase in launch angle and, consequently, flyball rate.
Juan Soto posted a 155 wRC+ against righties, but he’s a better real-life player than fantasy player – as you can see with his long, grinding at-bats and career .403 on-base percentage. I’ll pass on Soto in favor of a cheaper option.
Pictured Above: Houston Astros left fielder Michael Brantley (23).
Photo Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports.
