Tuesday brings us 13 games on the main Major League Baseball slate, starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
There are huge starting pitcher names all over the slate. That said, it’s probably a night to pay up at pitcher and go cheap on bats.
Jacob deGrom will be making his return from the injured list. DeGrom infamously had one rehab start in Class A that lasted just three innings, where he recorded eight strikeouts. In that start, he only threw 41 pitches.
It becomes tough to project how many pitches he throws in this spot. With him being out for less than a month, I doubt the Mets restrict him to something severe (i.e. under 60 pitches), but I also doubt they let him go for 100+ pitches.
He is the favorite on the Bales Model, with the model projecting him for 101 pitches. DeGrom gets a superb matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who have scored the fewest runs per game on the road (2.80) this season.
On any night, it is tough to not like deGrom, but to pay into that price point, I would want to know he is throwing his full allotment of pitches.
I feel like Max Scherzer has not been getting anywhere near the attention that he is used to this season. He is still the ace of the Washington Nationals. So far, Scherzer has recorded 76 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings. He also sits with a 2.20 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Scherzer is the second favorite for the Bales Model.
Scherzer faces the Cincinnati Reds, who have one of the more impressive offenses. They’re fourth in runs per game and a top-10 team at avoiding striking out.
I kind of like Scherzer, despite the seemingly difficult matchup. He has pitched significantly better in May, giving up just four earned runs in four starts. He gave up six home runs in April, but has only given up two in May.
Corbin Burnes might be the sweet spot, but his price is way too low on DraftKings.
Burnes is a tough luck 2-3 this season, with a 1.79 ERA and 0.62 WHIP, and a ridiculous 67 strikeouts against two walks. He faces the San Diego Padres and their strong offense. They’re 10th in runs per game and second best in strikeout percentage.
Burnes has already faced the Padres, throwing six innings of no-run, ten strikeout baseball. You have to give a bump to any team’s K% if they are facing Burnes this season.
Burnes hits for six ProTrends and is a stronger option on DraftKings than FanDuel.
The last real ace to discuss would be Lucas Giolito. He has looked a lot more human in 2021 than 2020, but just turned in his best start of the season. He went eight innings of one-run, 11-strikeout ball against the Minnesota Twins.
The concern with Giolito this year is that he is getting touched up for home runs. He has already allowed nine this season, with three separate starts allowing two in one game.
He has only recorded more ground ball outs than fly ball outs in one start this season. With the way that hitters focus on launch angle now, there are fewer and fewer lazy fly ball outs.
Now, he gets the St. Louis Cardinals. They’re 16th in runs per game in the MLB and have the 4th-best K percentage.
The Bales Model views him as a great bargain, and he has the third-highest K Prediction on the slate.
I like him as a pivot off of the bigger arms in GPPs.
I do not think I would be rushing to utilize Jose Berrios on this slate. He saves you some off of all of these other arms, but is in a clearly lower tier than them.
He has allowed five home runs in his four starts in May and while the Baltimore Orioles are not the most imposing offense, the wind is projected to be blowing straight out at Target Field.
I just would not get too cute with putting him in your lineup.
Hitters
Notable Stack
The best stack belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
- 3. Jorge Polanco (S)
- 2. Josh Donaldson (R)
- 4. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 1. Luis Arraez (L)
This group is projected for 48.2 FanDuel points on a salary of $10,900. That is quite cheap for the top stack, which fits in well with paying up for pitching. The reason that the Twins are popping up here is that they are facing Dean Kremer. Kremer is a below average pitcher at this point and is a great target for bats. The Twins have the highest implied run total on the slate, at 5.7 runs. Kremer has given up ten home runs in just seven starts, with at least one home run given up in each start. He is also a below a strikeout per inning guy with 32 strikeouts in 34 innings.
Other Hitters
The Bales Model shows Trea Turner as a good bargain. Turner had two hits and an RBI in each of his last two games. He has put together a nice month of May, with a .344 batting average and of course has the upside of swiping a bag or two. Turner is 2-for-5 lifetime off of Tyler Mahle.
The Cleveland Indians could be an interesting stack facing Tarik Skubal. Skubal, akin to Kremer, is a below average pitcher. He has given up 12! home runs in nine starts this season. He has already faced the Indians twice this season and in 9 1/3 innings given up eight earned runs. In one of those two starts, he gave up three home runs. The Indians’ entire lineup hits for at least five ProTrends.
Mike Yastrzemski is the second favorite hitter on the Bales Model. He will sit atop the San Francisco Giants lineup, that has an implied run total of 5.2. Yastrzemski does have a hit in each of his last two games and has shown a great eye, as he had three walks in a game last week.
The Lineup Optimizer has a lot of Luke Voit in it. Voit has been struggling since coming off of the IL, with only one home run (his only extra-base hit) and a .175 batting average. I do think that this New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays game will have some runs in it — that just is how their meetings have gone in recent years. Voit gets to see lefty Steven Matz, which could help him start to find his stride.
