Tuesday features a full 15-game slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:05 pm. ET.
Pitchers
The highest-priced pitcher of the card rates out well on the Bales Model: Brandon Woodruff. The Milwaukee Brewers starter has actually had a “bad” June when comparing to the rest of his season. He has given up six home runs in the month of June, which is in contrast with when he only gave up three combined in the months of April and May.
The good news is that he hasn’t lost his ability to strike out opposing hitters, with 28 strikeouts in 24 innings this month.
Woodruff faces the Chicago Cubs for the fourth time this season. So far, he has pitched a combined 21 innings against them, allowing one run and racking up 22 strikeouts. The Cubs have the third-worst strikeout percentage in Major League Baseball.
Woodruff hits for seven ProTrends and the Milwaukee Brewers are significant favorites at -202 odds.
The next best pitcher is Walker Buehler, who just picked up his first loss of the season in his last start. With the amount of arms on the Los Angeles Dodgers, it feels like he’s quietly having strong year.
Buehler has been superb at limiting hits, allowing 68 in 96 1/3 innings, yet he has given up 13 home runs. In the six starts that he hasn’t given up a home run, he’s allowed a total of three earned runs.
Facing division rival San Francisco, Buehler will be making his third start of the year against the club. In the previous two outings, he has combined for 13 innings, two earned runs and eight strikeouts. That strikeout total is a little surprising, as Buehler is right around a strikeout per inning and the Giants are bottom-third in strikeout percentage.
With a strong opponent in Kevin Gausman, the Dodgers are only -141 favorites.
I would be OK with entrusting my lineup to Buehler. I just think that paying up for Woodruff buys some safety.
If you want to zig, while everyone else is zagging, the Bales Model likes J.C. Mejia. I might have heard some “who?” comments on the back of that sentence.
Mejia has made five starts so far for the Cleveland Indians, getting some mixed results. His last start was against the Minnesota Twins and was his best yet. He completed six innings, giving up one earned run and striking out six. The best news is he threw 96 pitches, so we know that he is fully stretched out.
His price point on FanDuel is $6,200, so selecting him is going to allow you to do whatever you want with your bats.
The reason (other than price) that he pops is that he gets to face the Detroit Tigers, who still own the worst K% in the league. Their offense has really turned a corner in the last month or so, but it will be difficult to turn that trend around.
I would consider Mejia only in GPPs, so there’s no reason to take that risk in cash games.
At this point, I’m waiting for Lucas Giolito to return to form before thinking about using him. The strikeout stuff has not moved from years’ past, but he has given up 17 home runs this year, including seven in the month of June. He has given up at least one home run in seven of his last eight starts.
Of course, in his last start against the Twins, he probably had his best appearance of the year. He went eight innings, giving up one run and striking out 11 batters. Again, I’d just rather take a wait-and-see approach than locking him in.
For a more mid-tier play, I like the looks of James Kaprielian. He has been pretty effective for the Oakland Athletics since getting promoted in mid-May. His big issue right now is having 19 walks in 44 innings, but he does have more than a strikeout per inning.
He faces the Texas Rangers. They are 11th worst in K% and ninth worst in walk percentage. Kaprielian just faced them last time out and went six innings, giving up two earned runs and finishing with four strikeouts.
I have been really impressed with Kaprielian and think that he has continued success.
Hitters
Notable Stack
The top stack of the night is not in Coors Field. It comes from the San Diego Padres:
- 3. Jake Cronenworth (L)
- 4. Manny Machado (R)
- 2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)
- 1. Tommy Pham (R)
This group is projected for 53.7 FanDuel points on a salary of $14,600. The Padres are facing Vladimir Gutierrez, who the Bales Model is not loving. The game occurring in Great American Ball Park does not hurt the offenses chances either. Two starts ago, Gutierrez would have seen this lineup in San Diego and he gave up five earned runs in five innings for easily his worst start of the season. All of these hitters hit for six ProTrends. I think this could be a less popular stack, assuming the masses flock to Coors.
Other Hitters
Yordan Alvarez is a 99% Bargain Rating on the Bales Model and gets to face the Baltimore Orioles. He has an on-base streak extending back to June 13 and is having his worst average month at .275 in June. Most guys will not sniff .275 this year. He is actually having his strongest OPS month of the season. The Orioles have terrible pitching (do not know yet who will be starting for them) and the Houston Astros have the leagues best offense.
Jonathan Schoop has cooled down a bit, but is still too cheap. He is hitting .327 with an OPS of 1.078 for the month of June, bashing 10 homers this month. He is generally going to be the #2 hitter in an improving offense and while Mejia may perform well, there should still be some opportunities to get on-base. He is $2,900 on FanDuel.
The fact that Juan Soto only has eight home runs on the year is shocking. I guess Kyle Schwarber is taking them from him. The good news is Soto is having his best OPS month in June at .887. He has 47 walks as opposed to 43 strikeouts on the year, which is excellent. He faces left-hander Rich Hill. Soto is not a guy that shies away from left-on-left matchups. He features frequently in tonight’s Lineup Optimizer.
I could see going counterintuitive and stacking the Pittsburgh Pirates and not the Colorado Rockies. One player I like a lot is Bryan Reynolds. Being on a bad team like the Pirates creates a shadow over how good some of their better players are actually playing. He is hitting .363 with an OPS of 1.024 in June and is in the midst of a 13-game hitting streak. Eight of those 13 games have been with multiple hits.
