We have a full Major League Baseball slate Tuesday, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m ET.
Pitchers
The favorite pitcher on both sites is Kenta Maeda. I think Maeda has already had a tale of two seasons this year. He has been vastly improved after a trip to the IL.
Since returning from the Injured List on June 14, he has allowed more than three earned runs just once and recorded 46 strikeouts in 37 innings.
Maeda faces the Detroit Tigers, who for the most part have been one of the most improved offenses of late. Their overall K% has dropped so significantly that they’re no longer the worst team in baseball in the statistic. That being said, Maeda has seen Detroit twice recently and with success. He has combined for 10 innings, yielding three earned runs to go along with15 strikeouts.
It doesn’t hurt the Minnesota Twins are strong -195 favorites either.
Maeda is being priced with his fully body of work in mind. I don’t think that he’s the same pitcher he was to begin the season. There is a clear edge here at this price point.
However, there is a bit of a fall-off in rating after Maeda. The next best option is Adbert Alzolay.
Alzolay has been an interesting pitcher. He hasn’t given up more than four earned runs in any start this season, yet sits with a record of 4-10. He hasn’t recorded a win since June 2 either. He’s right around a strikeout an inning pitcher, but walking too many batters of late. Alzolay has also given up a total of 20 home runs on the season.
That scares me a little going in to face this Cincinnati Reds offense. It’s easily one of the best in the league. In two starts against them this year, Alzolay has gone a combined 12 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs and collecting 12 strikeouts.
He does hit for five ProTrends, as it would be projected that the Chicago Cubs’ offense can get to Vladimir Gutierrez. I’m not sure I fully trust him. I think we could get a game similar to Monday’s contest between these two teams where both starters struggle.
Julio Urias could be interesting in the classic Los Angeles Dodgers/San Francisco Giants matchup. Urias has come on strong this season, making a run up the NL Cy Young leaderboard. He just faced the Giants last time out, going seven innings and allowing one earned run with five strikeouts. San Francisco has the seventh-worst strikeout percentage in the baseball.
A lot of these Dodgers/Giants games this year have been too tough to call. While it may be hard to project if Urias should get a win, the Dodgers are favored in this one and it should be a relatively low-scoring affair.
I could see using Shane McClanahan on either site, but he’s more expensive than Maeda on both as well. McClanahan will face the New York Yankees, who hope to get Aaron Judge back from the COVID-19 injured list.
If they don’t get Judge back, that only helps the cause for McClanahan. He’s an interesting case, as he isn’t really allowed to pitch deep into ballgames. He has well more than a strikeout an inning, though.
The Yankees are 10th-worst in K% now and have maintained themselves as one of the worst run-producing offenses all year. They do own the fourth-best OPS versus left-handers. New York also got to McClanahan the one time they have seen him this year, with four earned runs in 3 1/3 innings.
I would consider him a GPP candidate. His ceiling is just very limited with the amount of innings he is allowed to throw. He feels like a guy to me who, even if he was cruising at 70 pitches through six innings, Kevin Cash would pull him.
If you want to go really cheap, Chris Paddack keeps showing up as an interesting option.
This would be a pure GPP play, if anything. By no means has Paddack had a great 2021, he has a 6.86 ERA in July. His last time out, he did throw five shutout innings – although that was with only one strikeout.
He does hit for six ProTrends, and I think part of his positive ranking comes from the San Diego Padres being a successful team – increasing his chances of recording a win.
Again GPP only, and it is a big risk, but opens up the bats.
Hitters
Notable Stacks
The top stack is Toronto Blue Jays, but there’s a chance that that game gets postponed. Outside of them, the best stack is the Washington Nationals:
- 4. Ryan Zimmerman (R – 2-4%)
- 5. Josh Harrison (R – 21-25%)
- 2. Trea Turner (R – 5-8%)
- 3. Juan Soto (L – 5-8%)
This group is projected for 48.7 FanDuel points on $14,100 salary. The Nationals get to face Matt Moore, who is somehow still a starting pitcher in 2021. He walks a batter just about every other inning and just gave up six earned runs to the Atlanta Braves. He strikes out less than a batter an inning, and is a flyball pitcher. Zimmerman is a lifetime 4 for 9 with two home runs off Moore.
Other Hitters
Rafael Ortega is the top-rated hitter and is too cheap on FanDuel at $2,000. He is 6 for 16 of late with a triple. I already talked about Gutierrez being a target for the Cubs, but in his small sample size he has been significantly better against RHP than LHP. He is very playable at that price.
The only 99% Bargain is Eduardo Escobar. He’s probably having a bigger season than most would realize, as he’s trapped on one of the worst teams in the Arizona Diamondbacks. He has 22 home runs on the year, and has his highest monthly OPS thus far in July at .898. Dane Dunning doesn’t exactly scare me either.
The Miami Marlins could be an interesting stack going into Camden Yards. The Lineup Optimizer likes both Jesus Aguilar and Isan Diaz. Diaz is more of a punt play, but if he hits near the top of the order is way too cheap. Both of these hitters hit for five ProTrends, with the Marlins sitting at 5.1 implied runs.
Yoan Moncada could be an interesting part of the Chicago White Sox lineup. They get an excellent hitting match-up going against Brad Keller, who also should probably not be a starting pitcher at this point. Moncada has a hit in 10 of his last 11 and sits at an .889 OPS for July.
