Tuesday brings us a 13-game main slate on he Major League Baseball front, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
It is another weird one for pitchers, with most of the aces having already been used since the All-Star break. Hopefully there are no more last-minute decisions on who is starting like over the weekend.
The favorite for both sites on the Bales Model is Shane McClanahan. This is an interesting one, as McClanahan faces the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles are actually rather elite when facing left-handed pitching. They have the ability to stuff their lineup with right-handed hitters outside of Cedric Mullins.
I think this has more to do with the price point McClanahan is coming in at, his ability to get strikeouts, and the Tampa Bay Rays being -194 favorites. All of those are strong positives for McClanahan, which is good because he usually can find it difficult to last into games. He has only completed six innings twice.
I am okay with using him, but I think there are other options to consider.
In the same price range, I like Tarik Skubal in his matchup. The one ability that Skubal has shown is that he can rack up strikeouts, which is a key for DFS players.
Since the beginning of May, he is well over a strikeout an inning at 87 strikeouts in 66 2/3 innings. His issue has been giving up too many walks, although he has gotten hit harder he only gave up one walk in each of his last two starts.
Skubal gets the Texas Rangers at home, and one thing the Rangers love to do is strikeout. They have calmed down a little bit, but are still 11th-worst in the league at 24.2 percent.
This game is pretty much a pick ’em in Las Vegas, but I like the fact the Tigers have been hitting the ball a lot better of late. They jumped all over the Rangers to the tune of 14 runs in Monday’s game. That should increase Skubal’s chances of landing an important win bonus.
I think he is an interesting GPP option.
Luis Garcia has turned into a really great option for the Houston Astros this year. He has given up more than three earned runs in only one start. It may be a little quietly, but he has 97 strikeouts in 85 1/3 innings pitched. He faces the Cleveland Indians. He is priced up pretty high on both sites, but may be a decent cash game option for safety.
The Indians are pretty much league average offensively, but their lineup looks a whole lot different with Eddie Rosario on the IL. The second half of their order really thins out.
I get it if folks do not want to trust Garcia at this price point yet, but I do not see him getting blown up in this spot. He hits for five ProTrends, too.
If the rain holds out, Yu Darvish is another higher-priced option. I am actually surprised he does not rate out a little better on the Bales Model than he does. I guess he did get touched up in his last start before the break. He faces the Atlanta Braves. The Braves have already gone out and gotten Joc Pederson to attempt to replace some of the production of Ronald Acuna Jr.
The Braves are seventh-worst in strikeout percentage, but average nearly a run and a half more per game at home (this game being in Atlanta).
Folks could have pivoted away from Darvish after his last start being poor. He is probably more of a GPP play as well.
Aaron Nola could be a sneaky play. He has always seemed to dominate the New York Yankees, and already has done so once this season. On June 13, he went 7 2/3 innings, giving up no runs and struck out nine batters.
Maybe the Yankees figured out the offense over the weekend, but every time it has felt like they have this year they immediately fall off. With the bottom half of that lineup right now, I would not be surprised to see it again.
The only Yankee with any remote success off of Nola is Giancarlo Stanton, who is 4 for 13 with two home runs. Gleyber Torres is 0 for 6 with five strikeouts, plus Gary Sanchez is 0 for 5 with three strikeouts.
Again, a strong sneaky play, but maybe the Yankees have it figured out.
Hitters
Notable Stack
The top stack belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- 5. C.J. Cron (R – 9-12%)
- 1. Garrett Hampson (R – 36-40%)
- 4. Trevor Story (R – 9-12%)
- 3. Charlie Blackmon (L – 5-8%)
This group is projected for 54.5 FanDuel points on $13,700. They get to face Seattle Mariners left-hander Marco Gonzales. Gonzales has already given up 15 home runs in 11 starts this season, including a combined five in his last two. I would think that ratio is not getting any better in Coors Field. Right-handed hitters hit .321 off of Gonzales with a 1.087 OPS, meanwhile he gets lefties out at an excellent rate. The Rockies are projected to only have two left-handed hitters in their lineup.
Other Hitters
Jonthan India remains too cheap, especially as he gets to sit atop the Cincinnati Reds’ potent lineup. He is hitting .340 in July with an OPS of 1.041. Last night, he had two hits, three walks, and a hit by pitch. That was his fourth multi-hit game of July. The New York Mets are sending a Robert Stock (who?) to the mound tonight.
Eduardo Escobar is a 99 percent bargain on the Bales Model and has homered in back-to-back games. He has an OPS of 1.049 in the month of July, with five home runs. He has hit better against left-handers this year too, with a higher average and OPS.
Another situation where the game might not be played, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. really likes seeing Garrett Richards. He is 5 for 7 with three doubles off of him lifetime. Vladito is having a “cooling off” in July with a .261 average and .957 OPS. He still has hit five home runs this month. If the game happens, there are going to be some runs in Buffalo.
After an incredible start to the season, Nelson Cruz has cooled off considerably. He will like getting to see Dallas Keuchel, however. Lifetime Cruz is 18-for-55 off of Keuchel with six home runs. Some of those numbers are coming back when Keuchel was a much more elite pitcher, too. It is no shock, but Cruz has continued to mash lefties this season with a .369 average and 1.028 OPS.
