Tuesday’s MLB DFS slate features 10 games on FanDuel with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are a few aces starting tonight, with three pitchers priced over $10,000:
- Shane Bieber (R), $12,000, CLE vs. MIN
- Gerrit Cole (R), $11,000, NYY @ ATL
- Lucas Giolito (R), $10,400, CWS vs. PIT
Bieber is the AL Cy Young frontrunner to this point in this season. Tonight, he is the fourth highest-rated pitcher in the Bales Model. Bieber’s price is up $1,800 since the beginning of the year, reflecting his elite 59.33 FanDuel points per game.
Bieber is 6-for-6 on quality starts and 5-for-6 in wins, both important categories on FanDuel. Earlier this season, he struck out 13 Twins in eight shutout innings. His K Prediction tonight is 6.65 per the Bales Model, so the model does not see Bieber having the same success as his previous time out. But the Twins have an implied run total of 3.5, which just shows how much respect Vegas is giving Bieber.
With the way Bieber is running now, there’s no way to completely fade him. This game is projected to be low-scoring for both sides, similar to their Monday night game. This may be a cheaper price than we see on Bieber his next time out.
Cole is the fifth highest-rated pitcher tonight. He has not been quite as consistent as Bieber, averaging 41.2 FanDuel points per game. The model expects 8.7 strikeouts for Cole tonight, by far the most on the slate, and that is being helped by the Atlanta Braves’ 10.0 strikeouts per game, which is third-worst in the league.
I like Cole tonight, too. Aaron Boone is looking for length out of his true ace. There is currently a 30% chance of rain for this game, so monitoring FantasyLabs’ updates will be key as we approach lock.
Giolito made his first start of this season that was reminiscent of his 2019 efforts. With 13 strikeouts against the Detroit Tigers, Giolito put up 70 FanDuel points. With the Pittsburgh Pirates on the docket tonight, back-to-back impressive outings may be in-line for Giolito.
The model has Giolito as the third highest-rated pitcher tonight with a K Prediction of 6.67. The lowly Pirates have a wOBA of .309, which is surprisingly decent.
Vegas sees this as a one-sided affair, with the Chicago White Sox as -237 favorites and the Pirates with a slate-low implied run total of 3.3. The wind looks to be blowing in from left-field and Giolito hits for 7 Pro Trends.
Values
The No. 1 rated pitcher in our models is Chris Paddack. He hasn’t gotten going in 2020 the way he did last season. His price on FanDuel is exactly the same as it was to begin the season at $8,900.
The main reason the model loves Paddack tonight is that he is facing the Seattle Mariners. They have a wOBA of .311 over the last two seasons, 24th in baseball. This game is in San Diego, a typical pitchers ballpark, with the wind blowing in from left.
Vegas has the San Diego Padres as -179 with just an implied run total of 3.4 for the Mariners. Paddack hits for 8 Pro Trends.
If Paddack goes six innings in this game, he should be getting a quality start and win. But he’s only hit that mark in half his starts this year.
Sean Manaea is the second highest-rated pitcher on the slate. The model has seemingly loved Manaea all season long — and he just has not performed to expectation. This is reflected in Manaea’s price at $6,600, a $1,200 drop from the beginning of the season.
I get what the model is seeing, as it will not take much for Manaea to be worth his price tonight. However, I considered not starting Manaea in a season long league and he is a two-start pitcher this week.
His ERA is 6.39 (granted, his FIP is much better at 4.04). He has finished five innings just twice this season, both of them in his last starts, but has never finished six. His high on the year for strikeouts is five, as he has 22 strikeouts in 25 innings pitched.
If you want to try him in a GPP, to plug in every top bat possible, that might be the way to go.
The decision-making tonight comes down to your stacks. If you want expensive stacks, you are probably utilizing Paddack. If you can work in a few cheaper stacks, Cole, Bieber and Giolito are going to score their fair share. Cole’s floor for strikeouts really makes him attractive tonight.
Notable Stacks
The top scoring stack of the night belongs to the Colorado Rockies, even though they are not playing in Coors:
- 1. Garrett Hampson (R)
- 4. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 2. Trevor Story (R)
- 3. Charlie Blackmon (L)
This core four is projected to score 48.1 points on a salary of $14,300. The Rockies have an implied run total of 4.5 runs against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The second-highest scoring stack I like a lot more than the first. It belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
- 3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)
- 1. Kolten Wong (L)
- 4. Matt Carpenter (L)
- 2. Tommy Edman (S)
They are projected to score 48.0 points on a salary of only $12,100. This stack will be popular to fit in the stud pitchers into your lineup. To me though, it is a much better play off of the Rockies stack at a much cheaper price. They get to face Matt Harvey, who could take his lumps tonight. Harvey is the lowest-rated pitcher in the Bales Model. Each of these hitters has six Pro Trends.
Other Hitters
Cesar Hernandez has become a bargain hunter’s dream. The main reason Hernandez’s price has stayed so low is that the Indians offense is just not scoring. The Bales Model gives Hernandez a 98% Bargain Rating tonight, at $2,800. Hernandez had a double and a home run last night, but will hit from the right side tonight against Rich Hill.
The White Sox have been hitting home runs at a historic rate and get to face Steven Brault tonight. Stacking White Sox hitters (fifth-highest scoring stack) purely as a fade of Brault makes sense to me. Yasmani Grandal is one of the Bales Model’s highest rated hitters for tonight and is a 92% Bargain Rating. The White Sox have a strong 5.5 implied run total.
