The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday’s main slate features nine games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Yu Darvish ($10,100) San Diego Padres (-105) at San Francisco Giants
Darvish is the clear standout on Monday’s slate. He’s one of the rare front-of-rotation starters pitching today and in near-ideal pitching situations. Oracle Park is the best place to pitch in the league, with a 95 Park Factor. The weather is favorable as well, with a Weather Rating of 88. (As an aside, I would’ve assumed that wind blowing out would make for favorable hitting conditions despite the cold temperatures. This is where the FantasyLabs Weather Rating really shines — we’ve backtested and quantified every possible weather combination to see who really benefits.)
My favorite Trend is in play here as well — umpire score, Chris Guccione is behind home plate, and he boosts pitcher’s scores by +0.7 points on average, the best mark on the slate. Of course, these are all reasons to play one of the pitchers in this game, not necessarily Darvish.
While Darvish and the Padres are very slight underdogs, however, Darvish is the more talented pitcher of the two in this game. He has the highest strikeout rate on the evening slate while limiting both walks and hard contact against him. Needless to say, that leads to Darvish having the best median and ceiling projection in our models.
Darvish does project to be chalky, with the slate’s highest ownership projection. On DraftKings, we can, of course, mitigate that with our other pitcher spot.
On FanDuel, be sure to balance out Darvish lineups with some less popular hitters or stacks.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Alex Cobb ($7,000) San Francisco Giants (-114) vs. San Diego Padres
We’ve already highlighted why this game is so appealing for pitchers. Cobb is the other beneficiary of that. Additionally, he’s a very slight favorite in the game, with the Padres implied for the lowest total on the slate.
Cobb doesn’t blow you away with his ability to miss bats, but he’s among the slate’s leaders in limiting hard contact and balls in the air (53.3% ground-ball rate.) With his $7,000 DraftKings salary, he doesn’t need to rack up a ton of strikeouts to be a good points-per-dollar play.
That makes him an extremely strong cash game option, but he has some GPP appeal as well. While both he and Darvish rank among the top three in ownership projections, it’s likely that fewer people play them together than their projections would indicate.
If this one stays low-scoring, that would make for a very strong leverage play by rostering them together.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Patrick Corbin ($6,800) Washington Nationals (+139) at Atlanta Braves
Corbin struggled mightily last season, leading to an ERA of well over five. However, he didn’t look bad in his first start of 2022, allowing two runs over four innings against the Mets. While that’s far from the Corbin of old, the matchup was tough, and he still managed to strike out four.
Look for him to pitch a little deeper into this one as he makes his second start of the season. The defending champion Braves are obviously no relief on the matchup front, but Corbin could post a solid score if he continues to miss bats. His swinging-strike rate (a good indicator of strikeout potential) suggests he’s in for some positive regression in the K department this season.
Of course, all the betting market data is working against Corbin. The Braves have one of the slate’s highest implied totals, and the Nationals are moderate underdogs. That’s leading to a near-zero ownership projection on Corbin. After a couple of bad years, Corbin could just be done as a premier pitcher in the MLB. However, there’s a chance he bounces back, making this a perfect buy-low opportunity.
Patrick Sandoval ($7,900) Los Angeles Angels (-155) vs. Miami Marlins
Sandoval trails only Darvish in K prediction on the slate, making him an obvious GPP candidate. With middling projected ownership, it’s also a good time to roster the young lefty.
Sandoval is making his first start of the season after a 2021 that saw him post a 3.62 ERA while striking out over a quarter of the batters he faced. He also has the best swinging-strike rate on the slate. All of those metrics together would normally result in a pitcher being noticeably more expensive than Sandoval.
Especially when you consider that his Angels are one of the more heavily favored teams on the slate at -155. He’s a promising young pitcher in a pitchers park as a heavy favorite. It shouldn’t take anything more than that for him to make some of your lineups.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Texas Rangers:
- Brad Miller (1) ($3,400)
- Marcus Semien (2) ($5,400)
- Corey Seager (3) ($5,000)
- Mitch Garver (4) ($4,200)
- Nate Lowe (5) ($4,400)
The Rangers’ first five hitters make up the top-rated tournament stack today. They’re implied for a slate-leading 5.7 runs, with favorable hitting conditions in Texas. Their Weather Rating leads the slate while simultaneously featuring one of the best park factors.
They’re facing Chad Kuhl of the Rockies, who’s had particular difficulty against left-handed bats. He allowed a .369 wOBA to them last season. With this stack featuring three left-handers, it’s a good way to attack his weakness. Kuhl struggled overall, though, with a SIERA just under five and the highest walk rate on the slate.
If looking to load up on more left-handed bats, Willie (9) ($3,500) and Kole (7) ($3,300) Calhoun are both viable options as well. Both are expected to start for the Rangers and could give you a more contrarian lineup as well as saving some salary.
Another benefit of this stack is that it takes care of your catcher spot. Garver has the highest median and ceiling projection of any backstop on the slate. As the cleanup hitter, he makes the most sense when paired with other Rangers.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by ceiling belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
This stack isn’t for the faint of heart. The Dodgers are playing in Minnesota, where rain is expected intermittently throughout the afternoon/evening. Based on the current weather forecast, they’re likely able to get the early part of the game in before the worst of it starts.
It’s still a tough situation for DFS, though, as it will be a challenge to get in enough innings to make it official. However, if the game is delayed early on and restarted later, that would be the perfect scenario. Twins starter Chris Archer ($6,200) is a solid arm, but he’d be chased from the game with an extended weather delay. That would leave the Twins bullpen to deal with the Dodgers sluggers.
Of course, all the rain will keep ownership on the Dodgers extremely low. There are five games that start later than this one, so it’s not too difficult to pivot off them if the weather looks bleak. Getting premier bats like the Dodgers at low ownership could be worth the hassle though.
If this game does get rained out before lock, the top BAT X stack by median projection belongs to the Texas Rangers (Miller, Semien, Seager, Garver, Lowe), which is in agreement with our Tournament Model.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Mike Trout OF ($5,700 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel) Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins (Jesus Luzardo)
With the Angels taking on left-handed Luzardo, getting Trout cheaper than Shohei Ohtani ($6,000) feels like a bit of a gift. Trout was a late scratch with an illness yesterday but should be good to go today. The Angels are implied for a very solid five runs against Luzardo, who fares far worse against right-handed bats (.389 wOBA allowed).
There’s never really a bad time to play Trout, but this is certainly one of the better ones. He has the highest median projection on the slate and trails only Ohtani in ceiling. If you can find the salary, he should prove to be well worth it.
Connor Joe 1B/OF ($3,100 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. Texas Rangers (Martin Perez)
Joe is currently penciled in as the leadoff hitter for the Rockies. At just $3,100 on DraftKings, that makes him a solid play just based on that. There’s more to like, though.
As a left-handed batter, Joe has the platoon edge on Perez, who has fairly drastic left/right splits. The Rockies are also implied for a solid 4.6 runs. They’re on the road, which boosts his chances for an additional at-bat. Finally, as discussed in our Rangers stack, this game is probably the best hitting environment on the slate.
Joe’s positional versatility also helps. While there are a lot of solid outfield options, he’s one of the best Pts/Sal first basement available. He’s a solid pick in both cash game and GPP lineups where you need to save salary.
Nolan Arenado ($5,100 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals (Daniel Lynch)
Arenado against left-handed pitching has been a smash spot throughout his career. He’s hitting .318 lifetime, with a slugging percentage over .600 against southpaws. With left-hander Lynch expected to start for the Royals, Arenado is a top option at third base.
The Cardinals are implied for just over five runs, with Arenado trailing only Paul Goldschmidt ($5,500 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel) — a fellow lefty-masher — in team lead for median and ceiling projections.
