The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 12-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is loaded with stud pitchers. Four possess a salary of at least $10,500 on DraftKings:
- Mike Clevinger (R) CLE vs. CWS
- Max Scherzer (R) $11,700, WSH vs. NYM
- Jacob deGrom (R) $11,000, NYM @ WSH
- Jack Flaherty (R) $10,500, STL vs. SF
Clevinger doesn’t possess the same name value as guys like Scherzer and deGrom, but he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the second half of the season. He’s pitched to a 2.04 ERA and 2.25 FIP, and he’s also posted an elite K/9 of 12.11. He’s been particularly dominant over his past three starts, allowing one earned run while recording 28 strikeouts over 18.2 innings.
His Statcast data from his past two starts is also excellent. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 188 feet and hard hit rate of 19%, both of which represent significant decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Clevinger is in an elite spot today vs. the Chicago White Sox. They rank just 29th in wRC+ over the second half of the season, and their projected lineup has posted a 31.0% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Clevinger’s opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs ranks second on the slate, while his moneyline odds of -292 rank first. His K Prediction of 8.2 also ranks second on the slate.
Overall, Clevinger checks all the boxes in this matchup.
Scherzer and deGrom are squaring off in a marquee battle between former Cy Young winners. The Nationals are at home, which gives Scherzer a slight edge in both opponent implied team total (3.5 runs) and moneyline odds (-132). Still, both pitchers have worse Vegas data than usual.
Where Scherzer really stands out on this slate is with his strikeout upside. He’s posted a K/9 of 12.78 over the past 12 months, and his K Prediction of 8.7 ranks first on the slate. He makes a lot of sense in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 91%.
deGrom is also worthy of some GPP consideration. He’s projected for just 9-12% ownership on DraftKings, and deGrom has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.57 and a Consistency Rating of 82.4% when facing the Nationals (per the Trends tool).
Flaherty continues to put together a remarkable second half for the St. Louis Cardinals. He’s pitched to a 0.98 ERA and 2.39 FIP while increasing his K/9 to 11.55. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past 10 starts on DraftKings, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +10.62.
He has an elite matchup today vs. the San Francisco Giants. Their projected lineup has been dreadful against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .250 wOBA and 25.2% strikeout rate. Flaherty is a massive -278 favorite, and his 3.2 opponent implied team total is the top mark on the slate.
Values
Mike Foltynewicz has had a disastrous season for the Atlanta Braves, but he may have turned a corner recently. He’s pitched to a 3.90 ERA over the second half of the season, and he’s allowed just five earned runs over his past 16.1 innings.
His Statcast data from his past two starts is also strong. Opposing batters have averaged a batted ball distance of 200 feet, which represents a decrease of -12 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
Folty is in a solid spot today vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. They’ve been one of the easier teams to strike out this season, and their projected lineup boasts a strikeout rate of 31.6% against right-handers over the past 12 months. He’s also a -204 favorite, and pitchers with comparable distance differentials and moneyline odds have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.54 on DraftKings. He’s a solid value option at just $7,500.
Jon Lester stands out as an elite value on FanDuel, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. He’s also in an elite spot vs. the Seattle Mariners, whose projected lineup has posted a dreadful .225 wOBA against southpaws over the past 12 months. Lester’s resulting Vegas data is excellent: 3.9 opponent implied team total, -241 moneyline odds.
Lester also has sneaky strikeout upside. For starters, he’s increased his K/9 to 8.61 this season after it dropped to just 7.36 in 2018. The Mariners projected lineup has also whiffed in 31.8% of at bats vs. left-handers over the past 12 months, which is the worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate.
Fastballs
Zack Greinke: He’s one of the best values at pitcher on DraftKings, where his $9,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 73%. He has a difficult matchup vs. the Milwaukee Brewers, but he also has solid strikeout upside. Their projected lineup has posted a 30.9% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Mike Montgomery: He’s dirt-cheap at $4,300 on DraftKings, and he owns an excellent matchup vs. the Detroit Tigers. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five starts, making him an excellent SP2 for those looking to pay up for an expensive stack.
Mitch Keller: He’s a right-handed pitcher taking on the Miami Marlins, which automatically puts him in DFS consideration. They rank just 29th in wRC+ against right-handers this season, and right-handers have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.09 when facing the Mariners this season.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 2. Corey Seager (L)
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 4. Cody Bellinger (L)
- 5. A.J. Pollock (R)
Total Salary: $22,600
The Dodgers are simply way too cheap for today’s matchup vs. the Colorado Rockies. They’re currently implied for 6.5 runs, which is tied for the second-highest mark on the slate, and you can stack their top five batters for just $22,600. Their resulting Team Value Rating of 90 ranks first on DraftKings. They’ll likely be even more affordable if Pederson is unable to suit up. He took a shot to the abdomen while robbing Charlie Blackmon of a home run yesterday, and he’s currently listed as questionable.
They’re taking on right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez, who has pitched to a disastrous 8.07 ERA this season. That number is obviously inflated because he pitches roughly half his games at Coors Field, but he’s still posted a dreadful 6.92 ERA on the road. He’s averaged more walks than strikeouts per nine innings this season, and that will get you in trouble regardless of what ballpark you’re playing in.
The Dodgers exploded for 16 runs vs. the Rockies on Monday, and they’ve been one of the best offensive teams all season. They rank second in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, and they rank first in ISO.
The Dodgers also own the top four-man FanDuel stack, so lets focus on the Indians instead. Their top stack ranks second on the slate and is slightly less expensive than the Dodgers’:
- 1. Francisco Lindor (S)
- 3. Carlos Santana (S)
- 5. Jakob Bauers (L)
- 6. Franmil Reyes (R)
Total Salary: $14,300
The Indians implied team total of 5.8 runs is slightly more modest, but it still ranks as the fifth-highest mark on the slate. They’re taking on White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease, who has pitched to a dreadful 6.92 ERA this season. He’s also been one of the HR-prone pitchers in baseball, allowing an average of 2.25 HRs per nine innings and a HR/FB rate of 22.8%.
The Indians started the year slowly from an offensive perspective, but they’ve been much better recently. They rank 10th in wRC+ against right-handers over the past 30 days, and they rank sixth in ISO.
Reyes has been a big upgrade to the lineup after being acquired from the Padres at the trade deadline. He’s posted a .277 ISO against right-handers this season, and he enters this contest in excellent recent form. He’s averaged a batted ball distance of 253 feet over the past 15 days, which represents an increase of +30 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, batters with comparable distance differentials and implied team totals have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.03 on FanDuel.
Other Batters
Mookie Betts has been one of the best hitters in baseball recently from a Statcast perspective. He’s posted an average distance of 239 feet, exit velocity of 98 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 57% over the past 15 days, all of which represent increases when compared to his 12-month averages. The Red Sox are currently implied for 6.5 runs, making him an elite target as the projected leadoff hitter. He’s also underpriced at just $3,800 on FanDuel.
If you’re looking for a value option to round out your lineup on DraftKings, consider Colin Moran. He’s priced at just $3,900, resulting in a slate-high Bargain Rating of 99%. He’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits vs. Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcanatara, and the Pirates are currently implied for 5.2 runs. Moran has also swung the bat well recently, posting a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +21 feet and hard hit differential of +10 percentage points.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Dodgers OF Joc Pederson (31)
Photo credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
