The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a split slate. DraftKings offers a six-game early slate starting at 12:35 p.m. ET, while FanDuel offers a three-game early slate at 12:35 p.m. ET and a three-game afternoon slate at 3:40 p.m. ET. Both sites feature a five-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers on today’s slate own a salary of at least $10,400 on FanDuel:
- Stephen Strasburg (R) $10,800, WSH vs. PHI
- Zack Wheeler (R) $10,500, NYM vs. MIA
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $10,400, LAD @ SD
The Nationals have officially clinched their spot in the NL Wild Card game, but home-field advantage in that contest is still very much up for grabs. They own a one-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers, so it will be interesting to see how hard they push Strasburg in this contest. There’s at least some chance that he pitches less than usual to ensure he’s at 100% for the postseason.
That said, he’s in a wonderful spot if he does see his usual workload. He’s taking on the Philadelphia Phillies, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .264 wOBA and 30.2% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. There’s currently no Vegas data for this matchup, but expect Strasburg to have one of the lower implied team totals on the slate.
He also offers excellent strikeout upside — he owns a K Prediction of 9.1 — and his Statcast data from his past three starts is elite. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 168 feet, which represents a massive decrease when compared to his 12-month average.
Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Strasburg
Wheeler headlines the main slate in what could be his last start with the New York Mets. He’s in a tremendous spot vs. the Miami Marlins, who have been absolutely dreadful offensively this season. They rank just 29th in wRC+ vs. right-handers, and fellow right-hander Jacob deGrom limited them to just two hits and one run over seven scoreless innings on Wednesday. Wheeler isn’t exactly deGrom, but he’s pitched to an excellent 2.77 ERA over the second half of the season.
He leads the main slate with a K Prediction of 7.2, and he’s limited his past two opponents to a hard hit rate of just 24%. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.91 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool). Expect him to put on a show in his final start of the season.
Kershaw takes the mound for a Dodgers team that has already clinched the best record in the National League. He has a terrific matchup vs. the San Diego Padres, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .278 wOBA and 33.1% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. Kershaw’s resulting K Prediction of 9.1 is tied with Strasburg’s for the highest mark on the afternoon slate.
Still, it seems unlikely that he’ll hang around in this start long enough to deliver a true ceiling performance. He’s been limited to 99 or fewer pitches in six of his past seven starts, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three of his past four. He carries more risk than usual.
Values
Luis Castillo is priced just a notch below the stud pitchers on the early slate, but he provides a lot of similar qualities. He has excellent strikeout upside, in particular. He’s posted a K/9 of 10.46 over the past 12 months, and the Brewers’ projected lineup has posted a 29.9% strikeout rate against right-handers over the same time frame. The Brewers could also potentially rest some of their regulars now that they’ve secured a spot in the playoffs, so their lineup could be even weaker than usual. Regardless, they’re not a particularly intimidating bunch with Christian Yelich on the IL.
Aaron Civale is another pitcher with an excellent matchup today. He’s taking on the Chicago White Sox, and their offense has really stumbled following the All-Star break. They rank just 25th in wRC+ vs. right-handers over that time frame, and they’ve also posted the second-highest strikeout rate.
Civale has also quietly been one of the more consistent starters in baseball. He didn’t join the Indians rotation until late June, but he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his nine starts. His limited strikeout ability caps his upside — he’s pitched to a 6.96 K/9 — but he’s a better pitcher than his current salary indicates.
Jose Quintana is taking on the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have been an amazing matchup for left-handers over the second half of the season. They rank dead last in wRC+ by a substantial margin over that time frame.
Quintana has also pitched well recently from a Statcast perspective. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 201 feet, exit velocity of 86 miles per hour and hard hit rate of 33%, all of which represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages. He’s a strong value at just $6,700 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 79%.
Other Batters
Joe Musgrove: He has some of the best recent Statcast data on the slate given his 15-day/12-month distance differential of -40 feet. Historically, pitchers with comparable distance differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.11 on DraftKings. He’s one of the stronger options on the main slate at just $7,700.
Tyler Beede: He’s not someone you’d usually roster in DFS — he’s pitched to a 5.23 ERA this season — but he has been significantly better at home. He’s also facing a Rockies offense that has struggled mightily against right-handers away from home this season, ranking 29th in wRC+. He has some appeal as a value option.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
- 1. Andrew Benintendi (L)
- 2. Xander Bogaerts (R)
- 3. J.D. Martinez (R)
- 4. Sam Travis (R)
- 6. Jackie Bradley Jr. (L)
Total Salary: $20,600
The Red Sox will not be playing in the postseason this year, but don’t blame their offense. They rank fourth in the league in runs per game, and they’ve averaged 7.67 runs over their past three contests.
They’re in an another strong spot today vs. Rangers left-hander Mike Minor. Three of the stacked batters will have the splits advantage, and Benintendi has actually fared better against left-handers than right-handers over the past 12 months as well.
Travis stands out as a particularly strong value at just $2,900. It’s almost impossible to find a projected cleanup hitter at that kind of salary, yet alone one who plays for a potent offense like the Red Sox. He hasn’t played a ton recently, but he has crushed the ball when he’s been in the lineup. He’s posted an average distance of 268 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour and hard hit rate of 71%, all of which represent significant increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Oakland Athletics:
- 1. Marcus Semien (R)
- 2. Ramon Laureano (R)
- 3. Matt Chapman (R)
- 4. Matt Olson (L)
Total Salary: $14,400
The A’s are one of the few teams with something left to play for at this point in the season, which should make them a popular target. They’re also implied for 5.6 runs, which is one of the top marks on the main slate.
They’re taking on Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez, who is a shell of his former self at this point in his career. He’s pitched to a 6.51 ERA and 5.95 FIP this season while allowing an average of 2.17 HRs per nine innings. Father Time remains undefeated.
Olson is someone who can do a lot of damage in this matchup. He’s destroyed right-handers this season, posting a 151 wRC+. He’s also clubbed 25 HRs against right-handers, and Hernandez has been victimized by left-handed bats all season. He has some of the best HR upside on the slate.
Other Batters
The Indians are another team with something to play for, and they’re in an exploitable matchup vs. White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease. Oscar Mercado stands out as one of their top options on FanDuel, where his $3,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. He’s also swung the bat well over the past 15 days, exceeding his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity and hard hit rate, and he’s expected to occupy the No. 2 spot in the lineup.
The Dodgers are facing a left-handed pitcher on today’s slate, which means David Freese will likely occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup. He’s gotten most of his playing time this season against southpaws, and he’s fared well given his 145 wRC+. He’s a steal at $2,500 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Oakland Athletics 1B Matt Olson
Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports
