Welcome to elimination day two of the MLB wild card round. The main slate features five games and locks at 12:08 pm E.T.
Pitchers
Half of the probable starters are priced over $9,000 on FanDuel and pricing is tight:
- Yu Darvish (R) $11,000, CHC vs MIA
- Luis Castillo (R) $10,200, CIN @ ATL
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $9,800, LAD vs MIL
- Brandon Woodruff (R) $9,400, MIL @ LAD
- Ian Anderson (R) $9,200, ATL vs CIN
NOTE: FanDuel does not have probable starters listed for the White Sox/Athletics game. DraftKings lists Dane Dunning for Chicago, and Mike Fiers for Oakland.
ANOTHER NOTE: The Bales Model dislikes one pitcher from all the projected starters today. Pricing and projected performance today is tight.
Yu Darvish has been excellent in 2020. In 12 starts, he maintained his career 11 strikeouts per 9 innings while cutting his walk rate and home runs per 9 in half. Darvish also cut his home-run-to-flyball rate by almost five percent. The Cy Young candidate must stave off elimination by taming the Miami Marlins after the Cubs lost 5-1 Wednesday.
Expect similar weather conditions as yesterday in Chicago, as 14 MPH crosswinds and a passing light shower are in the forecast.
If you missed out on yesterday’s breakdown, the Marlins are slightly below average against right-handed pitching on the road. The Marlins were patient against Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks and must maintain that mindset to advance to the NLDS today.
Chicago are favorites in today’s game and Darvish comes in with the most Pro Trends of any pitcher on the main slate.
Clayton Kershaw has a 9-11 record, 4.33 ERA, and has allowed 24 home runs in 158.1 postseason innings. The future Hall of Famer has had even more issues in win-or-go-home scenarios. Kershaw looks to avoid forcing the latter in game two against the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. The lefty will have to be sharp after the potent Dodgers offense could not take advantage of four walks and bases loaded situations against Brewers starter Brent Suter. They escaped with a 4-2 win after posting three runs early in the contest.
It is tough to imagine Brandon Woodruff performing any worse than Suter last night, and the righty will have to pitch as well as his 2018 postseason run after the Brewers bullpen was pressed into work in the second inning Wednesday. The Dodgers have the second-best Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) and the second lowest strikeout rate at home against right-handed pitching.
Take what you want from this: Woodruff and Kershaw will be facing each other for the third time in the postseason. The two split their first two contests in the 2018 NLCS. It is a #NarrativeStreet rubber match!
How will the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves follow up yesterday’s epic pitching duel? How about a showcase featuring Luis Castillo and Ian Anderson? Castillo ended September with a thud, but prior to allowing four runs in four innings, he had allowed four over 28.2. Anderson made his major league debut August 26 and allowed seven earned runs in six starts. One guarantee that I feel good about: at least two runs will cross the plate.
This could be another strikeout fest in which both pitchers score well on FanDuel without getting wins. Trevor Bauer (63) and Max Fried (40) were nails in no-decisions yesterday afternoon. I expect Castillo and Anderson to have similar performances today. Anderson is the Bales Model favorite today and is $1,100 cheaper on DraftKings than Castillo. The pricing differences is more of a reflection on Castillo’s history of pitching well more than anything because the Reds offense is below Atlanta’s in terms of production.
Vegas gives Atlanta the edge today, but a little scratch on Cincinnati at +121 on the Moneyline is a good way to be involved on the Reds if you cannot find a way to get Castillo in your DFS lineups.
Value Pitchers
Sixto Sanchez can neuter the Chicago Cubs offense. Sanchez is the cheapest pitcher on FanDuel despite having the same pitcher-friendly weather conditions as Darvish. I recommended Sandy Alcantara as a pivot play yesterday, and Sanchez allows for offensive flexibility.
Zach Davies does not have the upside of Chris Paddack, but he probably should have started game one against the St. Louis Cardinals. Maybe saving Davies for game two was a way to hedge his safe floor and hope Paddack’s Jekyll/Hyde routine was more Hyde, but now it is win-or-go-home for the Padres. Davies has not logged 40-plus FanDuel points in his last three starts, but he does have quality starts in two of them.
Fastballs
The Bales Model does not like Adam Wainwright today. I would not recommend using the finesse righty against the Padres.
If Dunning and Fiers are the starters in their elimination game today, I would lean Dunning over Fiers. Dunning could not find the strike zone in his final regular season outing against the Cubs, allowing a grand slam. But the rookie can rack up strikeouts in a hurry. Fiers is a concern because he allows 65% of balls in play through the air, and the White Sox offense is well documented.
Notable Stacks
The Bales Model does not account for hitters in the White Sox-Athletics game because no starters/openers have been named. Like I mentioned above, both offenses are in play today despite not showing up as usable stacks.
The San Diego Padres need their bats to prolong their season, and they project to do that today:
- Manny Machado (R)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)
- Tommy Pham (R)
- Trent Grisham (L)
Total Salary: $14,600
Tommy Pham had the best day of the four in their game one loss. All four project as top 15 hitting options on the Bales Model.
Projections and pricing are tight as I mentioned at the beginning. The next four stacks on the Bales Model project within three points of today’s best option.
Other Hitters
Ian Happ homered yesterday and reached base in 22 of 24 September games that he played in. He is the only trustworthy Cubs hitter.
Kolten Wong pops in the Bales Model for a second consecutive day. He went 1-6 with a double yesterday, and what is encouraging is his five outs were all on balls in play. Wong hit .344 on the road against right-handed pitchers including his only home run and five total extra-base hits.
Christian Yelich has hits in three of his last four games, including five walks. The former MVP may have found his touch at the plate after an abysmal 2020.
Jesus Aguilar ($2,800) has RBI’s in five of his last seven games and saw his price drop $100 from yesterday despite hitting a two-run homer.
