The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday’s main slate features six games starting at 4:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Stud
Shane Bieber ($8,300), Clevland Guardians (-127) at Kansas City Royals (8 total)
With Max Scherzer’s 2022 debut pushed back until tomorrow, Bieber stands out above the rest of the field in terms of pitching options. He’s the clear leader in our floor, median, and ceiling projections, all at a very reasonable $8,300 on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he’s a bit more appropriately priced at $10,400, leading to his 98% DraftKings Bargain Rating.
Bieber is popping in nearly all of our secondary metrics. This game has the best Weather Rating for pitchers and an above-average Park Factor. Most importantly, though, Bieber is the leader in K Prediction at over seven. Strikeouts are crucial on DraftKings in particular, where they account for a large percentage of a pitcher’s scoring.
You won’t be sneaking Bieber by anybody on a six-game slate, but he’s a strong enough play I’ll be looking to differentiate elsewhere rather than fade him. It’s also a solid matchup against a Royals team implied by Vegas to stay under four runs.
Roster Bieber before it’s too late to say sorry.
Values Plays
Shohei Ohtani ($7,000) Los Angeles Angels (-129) vs. Houston Astros (8.5 total)
Ohtani leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection while coming in way too cheap at just $7,000. Like Bieber, he’s priced up on FanDuel at $10,500. That gives him the slate’s best DraftKings Bargain Rating as well.
We’re not likely to see Ohtani pitch too deep into this one, so he’s a bit of a higher variance choice than Bieber. However, it’s hard to ignore his near 30% strikeout rate in both of his healthy MLB seasons. If this were a deeper slate with other pitching options, I could see a case for fading Ohtani against a solid Astros team. However, it’s fairly slim pickings — especially at Ohtani’s price range.
Also, similar to Bieber, the secondary metrics are all strong for Ohtani. He’s at home in the most pitcher-friendly park on the slate, with the wind blowing in. The Angles are slight favorites, and he trails only Bieber in K prediction. Ohtani is the clear best value play on the slate, so he’s a near-lock for cash games.
GPP Plays
Yu Darvish ($9,500) San Diego Padres (-154) at Arizona Diamondbacks (9 total)
Darvish really shouldn’t be far more expensive than both Bieber and Ohtani, but today he is. While that’s not ideal from a raw value standpoint, it creates the perfect “pay up to be contrarian” situation. Darvish is right behind Ohtani in K prediction and has a similar Vegas line.
He also has a better matchup than Ohtani, with his opponent (the Diamondbacks) hitting about 30 points worse against righty’s last season than the Astros. That’s obviously an imperfect stat this time of year with roster moves, but it’s still worth considering.
Given the relative salaries, Darvish will probably be significantly under-owned relative to his chance to be the best pitcher on the slate.
That makes him a solid play for tournaments.
Max Fried ($9,000) Atlanta Braves (-182) vs. Cincinnati Reds (8 total)
The thesis on Fried is nearly identical to Darvish’s. Neither player is as good of an option as their cheaper counterparts, but both are in solid leverage spots. Fried isn’t expected to miss as many bats as any of the other pitchers mentioned, but he makes up for it to an extent with added win equity. His Braves are the heaviest favorite on the slate, and the Reds are implied for the fewest runs.
While hunting for the four-point win bonus generally isn’t the best idea — there are a lot of ways for pitchers to not get the win even in good performances — it still bolsters the case for Fried a bit. You probably only need one of Fried or Darvish to be contrarian enough for tournaments, but both are reasonable options given the fairly loose salary overall.
Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the MLB Tournament Model, when generated by ceiling, belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
- Eddie Rosario (1) ($4,200)
- Matt Olson (3) ($5,700)
- Marcell Ozuna (4) ($4,300)
- Austin Riley (5) ($5,400)
- Ozzie Albies (6) ($5,500)
The Braves have the highest implied total on the slate at 5.0 runs, so it makes sense that they’ll show up when we hunt for ceiling. While it’s never comfortable to pay a combined $10,900 for hitters in the five and six spots, that should lead to reduced ownership from this stack in particular.
The Braves are facing Tyler Mahle ($7,700) of the Reds, a solid but not top-of-the-line pitcher. This game also features the most hitter-friendly park and weather on the slate. Various permutations of Braves stacks make up the top-10 options when optimized by ceiling, so feel free to find one that fits your salary and positional needs.
Top Stack from THE BAT
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is you can purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top DraftKings value stack from THE BAT when generated by projected ceiling belongs to the San Diego Padres:
- Trent Grisham (1) ($3,100)
- Manny Machado (2) ($4,800)
- Jake Croneworth (3) ($4,200)
- Luke Voit (4) ($3,500)
- Will Meyers (6) ($3,400)
It’s no surprise to see the Padres popping in THE BAT’s projections. They have the second-highest implied total on the slate and the best of any road team. (We want to roster away team hitters when possible since they’re guaranteed a ninth trip to the plate.)
This stack is also very reasonably priced, with a $3,100 (projected) leadoff hitter giving a lot of flexibility elsewhere in the lineup. Four of the five best stacks based on ceiling projection belong to the Padres as they take on Madison Bumgarner ($6,900) and the Diamondbacks.
We might have a bit of leverage using this one, though, as the chalk stack will probably be a straight one-through-five combination. We aren’t sacrificing any correlation either, as the five and six spots correlate exactly the same with the first four hitters. (Check out the “Lineup Order” tab under our correlations tool.)
This game also has the best Weather Rating and Park Factor for hitters on the slate. Expect the Padres to be chalky though, so look to differentiate elsewhere in your lineup or use less common versions of this stack. (Say, only four players, or load up on their left-handed hitters against a lefty pitcher.)
Still, it’s hard to get away from the upside and value combination this stack gives.
Other Hitters
Juan Soto OF ($5,000) Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets (Tylor Megill)
With Scherzer scratched, the Nationals have one of the better pitching matchups on the slate. Every other team has their ace on the hill, but Megill is listed as the Mets’ No. 6 starter on the team website. Soto is in the ideal position to capitalize on the change.
He had the highest projected median and ceiling on the slate — with Scherzer starting. That should only increase once the switch is baked into projections. Leftys feasted on Megill last season, posting a .418 batting average against. The biggest concern with Soto and the Nationals is the weather, but the Nats pushed this game back to a 7:00 p.m. start which should limit the chances of a rainout.
With the best pitching options being fairly cheap, finding salary to fit Soto is also not an issue. He makes sense as part of a Nationals stack or as a one-off in other lineup constructions. (Nationals stacks lose some appeal due to the lack of lefty bats in the lineup besides Soto. Still, they have the second-highest implied total on the slate.)
Mike Trout OF ($6,200) Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros (Framber Valdez)
There’s never really a bad time to play Trout. There are, however, “degrees of good.” This isn’t necessarily one of the better times, but that’s all the more reason to consider him in tournaments. Trout is another “pay up to be contrarian” player as the slate’s most expensive hitter.
He’s playing in the worst park on the slate for hitters, on the wrong side of his platoon splits (he does better against right-handed pitching historically), and with mediocre weather. On the other hand, he’s still Mike Trout. If he comes in with low ownership projection, he’s worth a look.
Pete Alonso 1B ($4,800) New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
Alonso hits about 30 points worse against lefties in his career, but with a near-identical OPS against left and right-handed pitchers. That tells us that his power improves against southpaws, making him an attractive high-variance option against Corbin.
The Nationals ace struggled last year, with a 5.82 ERA and 37 home runs allowed in 31 games. Corbin has gotten progressively worse every year since joining the Nationals, so if that trend continues, now’s the time to pounce on it. Alonso has the best projections on the Mets, but mini-stacks built around him are in play here as well.
