The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday’s main slate features six games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Walker Buehler ($9,700) Los Angeles Dodgers (-280) vs. Cincinnati Reds
With rotations flipping over, we have plenty of high-end pitchers making their second start of the season. None are as safe as Buehler, though. Vegas has the Dodgers as massive -280 favorites against the Reds, who are also implied for the lowest run total on the slate. In fact, their implied team total of 3.3 runs is at least half a run lower than every other team’s.
The real question is whether Buehler is allowed to pitch long enough to justify his salary. We saw the Dodgers pull Clayton Kershaw after only 80 pitches in a perfect game last night, so expect the hook to be quick on Buehler. In Buehler’s first start of the season, he pitched five innings of two-run ball, picking up just under 18 DraftKings points along the way.
That start was at Coors Field, but this one is at home. Dodger stadium is relatively pitcher-friendly, with a Park Factor of 61. Still, we need Buehler to push for 20+ points to feel good about him at his current salary. That could be a challenge if he’s only given 80 or so pitches to work with.
This makes Buehler a solid cash game play but somewhat questionable for tournaments. At slate-leading projected ownership, there’s some leverage to be had by fading him in GPPs.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Shoehei Ohtani ($7,900) Los Angeles Angels (-143) at Texas Rangers
Ohtani currently trails only Buehler in our median and ceiling projection but checks in at $1,800 cheaper. He actually ranks slightly ahead of Buehler in THE BAT’s projections, though both groups have it very close. Ohtani was fantastic in his first start of the season, striking out nine batters through 4 2/3 innings. He only allowed one run in that outing as well, before exiting after 80 pitches.
I’d expect the Angels to give him a slightly longer leash his second time out, though they’ll probably still be cautious with him. While we can’t project him for another 47% strikeout rate, getting to face a few more batters makes up for some of that.
Ohtani won’t be sneaking past anyone in GPPs, but he’s a distant second to Buehler in ownership projection. That makes him a strong option in both cash games and tournaments. His slate-leading strikeout prediction can’t be ignored, making him my favorite overall pitching option on the slate.
Luis Severino ($7,400) New York Yankees (-125) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
After multiple injury-shortened years, Severino was able to last only three-plus innings in his season debut against the Red Sox. However, his stuff looked great while it lasted, topping 100 mph on his fastball and striking out five of the nine batters he retired.
Severino needed those strikeouts because he got little in the way of help from his defense. While the Yankees recorded only one error officially, multiple borderline plays weren’t made behind him. I’m usually a “trust the numbers” guy, but that context is worth considering with Severino.
Of course, that could be the standard this year for the Yankees. When Giancarlo Stanton is in the field, the outfield of Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Joey Gallo is one of the league’s worst defensively. The trio has already combined for a -0.5 fielding WAR, with Stanton playing only twice.
Regardless, we can predict some regression behind Severino for this one. His stuff looks as good as ever, and he should have a longer leash for his second start of the season. He’s coming in at bottom-five in projected ownership while projecting for the best Pts/Sal mark in THE BAT’s projections. He’s a great GPP play and makes some sense in cash games for the courageous DFSer.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Kevin Gausman ($8,500) Toronto Blue Jays (+106) at New York Yankees
Rostering an underdog pitcher at a noticeably higher salary than his opponent seems counter-intuitive, but that’s why it’s a strong option for GPPs.
Gausman stands out in several advanced metrics on the slate. His SIERA is higher than only Severino among today’s starters, and Severino’s numbers are over a minuscule sample size. His strikeout rate also ranks in the top three. Perhaps most encouragingly, his 15% swinging strike rate leads the slate and suggests positive regression in the strikeout numbers.
Of course, taking on the Yankees in the Bronx is no small task. New York is implied for 4.5 runs, one of the slate’s higher totals. It’s also the worst park for pitchers on the slate outside of Coors Field. All of that contributes to Gausman’s low ownership projections, though. He’s squarely in the second tier behind Ohtani and Severino, making him a high-variance contrarian option.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- Connor Joe (1) ($3,400)
- Charlie Blackmon (2) ($3,900)
- Kris Bryant (3) ($4,400)
- C.J. Cron (4) ($4,500)
- Brendan Rogers (5) ($3,700)
With the game at Coors Field, it’s no surprise that the Rockies are showing up as one of the slate’s best stacks. What is surprising is the relatively reasonable salary of the first five Rockies hitters. Joe in particular stands out. He was our cover athlete on Tuesday thanks to his strong value at $3,100. He put up 15 DraftKings points but only saw a $300 spike in salary.
The Rockies are taking on lefty Justin Steele of the Cubs, which is good news for Bryant. He has a .971 career OPS against lefties, noticeably higher than his .853 mark against right-handers. Blackmon also surprisingly has a higher career average against fellow southpaws, though he does see a decrease in power. You could work around him with nontraditional stacks, but he’s a fine play at under $4,000 in his own right.
Spending less than $20,000 on the first five batters for the Rockies when they’re implied for over six runs is a no-brainer. You’ll have to get contrarian elsewhere in your roster for GPPs, but they’re a strong overall group.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Wilson Contreras C ($4,800 DraftKings; $3,700 FanDuel) Chicago Cubs at. Colorado Rockies (Kyle Freeland)
Contreras is a rare catcher batting near the top of the order, currently penciled in at number two. More importantly, he’s playing at Coors Field. He’s also taking on a left-handed starter, and his slugging percentage is 50 points higher against southpaws for his career.
Of course, none of this will go unnoticed by the field. Contreras looks to be mega-chalk on DraftKings, with the highest ownership projection of any player according to THE BAT. Regardless of which numbers you’re looking at, I’m not willing to eat that much chalk in a sport where Hall of Famers fail seven out of ten times.
However, the situation is different on FanDuel. Since catchers aren’t mandatory there, they tend to go significantly lower owned. Contreras makes more sense there, where he also has a 72% Bargain Rating.
Clint Frazier OF ($2,600 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Chicago Cubs at. Colorado Rockies (Kyle Freeland)
Frazier looks like he’ll be leading off for the Cubs. At just $2,600 on DraftKings, that would be enough information to lock him in, thanks to Chicago’s 5.5 run total. Of course, this game is also at Coors Field, and Frazier is also on the right side of his platoon splits against the left-handed Freeland.
This seems like a rare pricing mistake from DraftKings, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating. He should be somewhat chalky, but the overall strength of the outfield position projects to keep his ownership reasonable. He’s a no-brainer for cash games with some GPP appeal.
Bobby Witt Jr. 3B ($2,500 Draftkings; $2,600 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers (Casey Mize)
Witt should be batting second for the Royals as they take on the Tigers young righty Casey Mize. Mize allowed four runs in five innings his first time out and has been disappointing so far in his career with a 4.46 SIERA. That’s nearly a full run higher than his 3.82 ERA. If Mize is chased from the game early, Witt will also benefit from facing the Tigers’ shallow bullpen.
Witt hasn’t done much this season to inspire confidence either, but he’s a solid salary saver at just $2,500. His Pts/Sal projection trails only Frazier’s on DraftKings, where he owns a 94% Bargain Rating.
