Thursday features a two-game slate starting at 5:02 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
The pitching options on today’s slate span the pricing spectrum on FanDuel:
- Walker Buehler (R) $10,200, LAD vs. WSH
- Patrick Corbin (L) $9,800, WSH @ LAD
- Dallas Keuchel (L) $8,100, ATL vs. STL
- Miles Mikolas (R) $7,600, STL @ ATL
Buehler headlines the slate, and he put together an excellent season. He struggled a bit out of the gate, pitching to a 5.22 ERA in March and April, but he posted a 2.88 ERA and 2.91 FIP over the final five months. He also posted solid strikeout numbers given his K/9 of 10.61.
Buehler owns the best Vegas data on the slate, leading all pitchers in opponent implied team total (3.1 runs) and moneyline odds (-168). Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.74 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
He also enters the postseason in strong recent form. He limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 205 feet, which represents a decrease of -15 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Factoring a comparable distance differential into the above trend increases the average Plus/Minus to +3.93.
This matchup vs. the Nationals isn’t exactly a slam dunk — they posted the third-highest wRC+ and third-lowest strikeout rate against right-handers over the second half of the season — but Buehler is clearly the top pitcher on the slate.
Corbin is opposing Buehler in LA, and he put together a strong first season with the Nationals. He’s an underdog in this matchup, but he should benefit from being left-handed. The Dodgers finished second in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season, but they dropped to 10th when facing a southpaw. Their strikeout rate also increased from 21.0% to 23.0%.
Like Buehler, Corbin also enters this contest in excellent Statcast form. He’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -16 feet.
Corbin should command lower ownership than Buehler, which makes him a strong pivot in guaranteed prize pools. It’s also possible to pair them both together on DraftKings, although it doesn’t leave you a ton of wiggle room with your lineup.
The pitching options in the other game are far less exciting. Keuchel takes the mound for the Atlanta Braves, and wasn’t particularly impressive after joining the team in June. His 3.75 ERA isn’t awful, but it’s not exactly what you’d expect from an “ace” in the postseason. His 4.72 FIP and 7.27 K/9 are also well below average.
The good news for Keuchel is that the Cardinals were pedestrian vs. southpaws this season. They ranked merely 13th in wRC+, and their projected lineup owns an abysmal .265 wOBA vs. left-handers over the past 12 months. They’re currently implied for 4.2 runs, and Keuchel is a -137 favorite.
The big concern is his recent Statcast data. He is not a strikeout pitcher, so needs to generate soft contact in order to record outs. With that in mind, his 15-day/12-month distance differential of +34 feet is terrifying.
Mikolas is one of the closest facsimiles to Keuchel at the moment. He’s another low strikeout pitcher who relies on limiting the damage on balls on play. He excelled at that in 2018, pitching to a 2.83 ERA, but his ERA dropped all the way to 4.16 this season.
Unlike Keuchel, he is at least entering this contest in good form. He limited his most recent opponent to an average distance of 183 feet, which represents a decrease of -24 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
That said, it may not matter vs. the Braves. They finished ninth in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season, and they jumped to fifth when facing a right-hander in Atlanta. They’re currently implied for 4.9 runs, which is the top mark on the slate.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
- 1. Dexter Fowler (S)
- 2. Tommy Edman (S)
- 3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)
- 5. Yadier Molina (R)
- 6. Paul DeJong (R)
Total Salary: $21,400
The Cardinals are an interesting target today. They rank merely third in implied team total, so they could fly a bit under the radar. That said, they did rank fifth in wRC+ vs. southpaws over the final two weeks of the regular season.
Each of the stacked batters will also have the splits advantage vs. Keuchel. Keuchel dominated left-handed batters this season, limiting them to a .268 wOBA, but he surrendered a much more pedestrian .339 wOBA to right-handed batters.
Goldschimdt had a bit of a down year in his first season with the Cardinals, but he’s still capable of destroying left-handed pitching. He posted a 148 wRC+ vs. southpaws this season, and his ISO was nearly .100 points higher when facing a left-hander. He stands out as one of the best pure values on DraftKings, where his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.
The Cardinals also own the top four-man FanDuel stack, so lets focus on the Braves instead:
- 1. Ronald Acuna Jr. (R)
- 2. Ozzie Albies (S)
- 4. Josh Donaldson (R)
- 5. Nick Markakis (L)
Total Salary: $14,300
The Braves figure to be the chalk on this slate. They rank first in implied team total, and their Team Value Rating on FanDuel ranks first as well. Each of the stacked batters is projected for at least 41% ownership, so you’ll need to get creative with the rest of your lineup if you choose to stack them.
Acuna figures to be one of the highest owned players on the slate despite the fact that he hasn’t played in nearly a week. That said, he was absolutely destroying baseballs the last time we saw him. He’s averaged a 271-foot distance, 105 mile per hour exit velocity, and 71% hard hit rate over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
David Freese is an interesting value option for the Dodgers. He figures to occupy the lead-off spot in the lineup vs. Corbin, and he’s priced at just $3,600. That’s really cheap for a lead-off hitter, particularly one who can hit like Freese. He’s posted a .379 wOBA and .228 ISO against southpaws this season, so he can do some damage with the bat.
The only problem is, he will likely get removed for a pinch hitter as soon as a right-hander is on the mound for the Nationals. That still means he could get three at bats in this game, and he’s could be enough to make a fantasy impact. This is a very similar situation to Yandy Diaz last night, who hit two HRs as the lead-off hitter before exiting for a pinch hitter late in the game.
If you want to be contrarian today, consider stacking the Nationals. They will carry easily the lowest ownership of all four teams, which greatly increases their appeal on a small slate. The Nats also collectively enter this contest in excellent form. Trea Turner, Adam Eaton, Juan Soto, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Yan Gomes have all posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of at least +12 feet. Even just including one of these players in your lineup could help serve as a differentiator.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Cardinals 1B Paul Goldschmidt
Photo credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports
