The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate. There’s an 11-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET and a three-game afternoon slate starting at 4:07 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers on today’s slates own a salary of at least $10,000 on FanDuel:
- Justin Verlander (R) $12,000, HOU vs. LAA
- Yu Darvish (R) $10,500, CHC vs. STL
- Trevor Bauer (R) $10,000, CIN vs. NYM
Verlander is one of the favorites for the AL Cy Young award. He’s pitched to a 2.50 ERA this season while striking out an average of 12.01 batters per nine innings. Some of his advanced metrics suggest he’s been a bit lucky this season – he leads all qualified starters with a .212 BABIP and 89.3% strand rate – but it’s been a dominant season nonetheless.
His Statcast data from his past three starts is particularly impressive. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of just 190 feet, which represents a decrease of -30 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
He has an excellent matchup today vs. the Los Angeles Angles. Their projected lineup has struggled without Mike Trout, posting a .281 wOBA and 24.5% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. There’s currently no Vegas data available, but expect Verlander to own one of the lowest opponent implied team totals on the slate. He also has immense strikeout upside: His K Prediction of 9.8 ranks first among today’s starters.
Darvish has struggled at times this season, but he’s found his form recently. His pitched to a 2.70 ERA following the All-Star break while increasing his K/9 to 13.01. As a result, he’s posted a dominant average Plus/Minus of +9.94 over his past 10 starts on FanDuel.
The Cubs will need a big performance from him vs. the Cardinals to avoid falling behind any farther in the NL Wild Card race. Luckily, it’s a solid matchup. The Cardinals’ projected lineup has struggled to a .263 wOBA and 27.8% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Darvish has immense upside given his recent strikeout numbers, and his $10,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%.
Bauer has struggled as a member of the Reds, but he’s started to show signs of life. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two outings, including a dominant performance in his last outing. He recorded nine strikeouts while allowing just one earned run en route to 58.0 FanDuel points vs. the Diamondbacks.
That said, he’s in a tough spot today vs. the New York Mets. Their projected lineup boasts a .321 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months, and the Mets rank seventh in wRC+ against right-handers since the All-Star Break. They’re currently implied for 4.4 runs, and Bauer is a slight +107 underdog.
If you do want to play Bauer, do it on DraftKings. His Bargain Rating of 45% doesn’t jump off the page, but it’s the top mark among the high-priced starters.
Values
Hyun-jin Ryu is coming off a brilliant performance in his last outing, allowing just two hits over seven scoreless innings vs. the New York Mets. He recorded six strikeouts, and he also limited the damage on balls in play. Ryu limited the Mets to an average distance of 177 feet and a hard hit rate of just 23%, both of which represent significant decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
He’s in an elite spot today vs. the Colorado Rockies. They haven’t been the same offensive team when playing away from Coors this season, ranking just 27th in wRC+ vs. southpaws. The Rockies are currently implied for just 3.1 runs, which is the lowest mark on the slate, and Ryu is also a massive -351 favorite. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.39 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
He’s the easy choice for top pitching option on the afternoon slate.
Austin Voth is a very intriguing value on today’s slate. For starters, he’s displayed quality strikeout upside as a major leaguer, posting a 9.92 K/9 over 32.2 innings.
He also owns an outstanding matchup vs. the Miami Marlins. They’ve been dreadful against right-handers this season, ranking 29th in wRC+ and eighth in strikeout rate. That’s a really appealing combo from a fantasy perspective, and right-handers have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.38 on FanDuel when facing the Marlins this season.
Matt Boyd always has some DFS appeal given his strikeout ability. He’s posted a K/9 of 11.64 this season, which ranks fifth among qualified starters.
He has nice upside today vs. the Chicago White Sox. Their projected lineup has posted a 29.6% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, and his K Prediction of 9.2 ranks fourth among today’s starters.
He’s an excellent value on FanDuel, where his $9,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fastballs
Robbie Ray: He owns a K Prediction of 9.3, which ranks first on the afternoon slate. He owns an outstanding matchup vs. the San Diego Padres, who have posted the sixth-highest strikeout rate against southpaws this season.
Luis Severino: He will likely be limited in some capacity vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, but he did pitch four innings in his first start of the season. The Blue Jays’ projected lineup has posted a 29.8% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, so Severino has upside if he can around six innings today.
John Means: He’s one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five starts, and he’s in a solid spot vs. the Seattle Mariners.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
- 2. Jorge Polanco (S)
- 3. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 4. Eddie Rosario (L)
- 5. Mitch Garver (R)
Total Salary: $14,800
The Twins are currently implied for 6.4 runs, which ranks second on the main slate. They also represent one of the best pure values on FanDuel, where the Team Value Rating of 93 is tied for first.
They’re taking on Royals right-hander Jorge Lopez, who has pitched to a 5.93 ERA this season. He’s also been susceptible to the long ball, allowing an average of 1.72 per nine innings. That could spell trouble against the Twins, who rank tied for first in HRs per game this season.
The Twins collectively enter this contest in elite recent form. Each of the stacked batters has posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of at least +12 feet.
On the afternoon slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the Oakland Athletics:
- 1. Marcus Semien (R)
- 2. Matt Chapman (R)
- 3. Matt Olson (L)
- 5. Seth Brown (L)
- 6. Khris Davis (R)
Total Salary: $20,200
The A’s are currently implied for 4.7 runs, which is a far cry from the Dodgers’ slate-best mark of 6.0. That said, the A’s top stack is ridiculously cheap at just $20,200. They possess one of the better offenses in baseball, so this is an excellent opportunity to buy low on them.
They’re taking on Rangers right-hander Lance Lynn, who has been excellent this season. Still, he has been hit hard over his past two outings, allowing opposing batters to post an average distance of 236 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 40%. All of those represent increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Brown stands out as a particularly strong value on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $3,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%. He’s posted a .472 wOBA and .255 ISO over the past 12 months, and he’s outperformed his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
Ronald Acuna is one of the most expensive batters on the main slate, but he’s worth every penny. His Statcast data from the past 15 days is insane: 266-foot distance, 100 mile per hour exit velocity, 63% hard hit rate. The Braves are currently implied for 5.7 runs, and Acuna leads the slate with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings. He’s an elite option if you can afford him.
Wil Myers is priced at just $4,000 on DraftKings, and he’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. Ray. He’s crushed left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .374 wOBA and .234 ISO, and owns a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +26 feet. He should garner relatively low ownership on the afternoon slate, which increases his appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Braves OF Ronald Acuna Jr. (13)
Photo Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
