The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate. There’s a 10-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET and a three-game afternoon slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers on today’s slates are priced above $10,000 on FanDuel:
- Stephen Strasburg (R) $11,500, WSH @ SD
- Walker Buehler (R) $11,300, LAD @ SF
- Blake Snell (L) $10,300, TB @ BOS
Strasburg struggled in his last start, allowing five earned runs over just five innings pitched, but he’s still putting together one of the best seasons of his career. He’s posted a 2.87 FIP through his first 13 starts while averaging an 11.14 K/9.
His Statcast data from his past two starts is also impressive. He’s allowed opposing batters to compile an average distance of 198 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 20%, all of which represent decreases compared to his 12-month averages.
Strasburg is in a decent spot today vs. the San Diego Padres. He has a tough pitching matchup vs. Chris Paddack, but Strasburg’s opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs is the fifth lowest mark of the day. His K Prediction of 9.1 ranks first, and pitching in San Diego also rewards him with a Park Factor of 88. He’s particularly appealing on DraftKings, where his $10,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%.
Buehler joins Strasburg as standout options on the afternoon slate, and he has the superior matchup. He’s taking on the San Francisco Giants, whose projected lineup has posted a .245 wOBA vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. They’re implied for just 3.4 runs, which is the lowest mark on the afternoon slate.
The only concern with Buehler is his recent batted ball profile. He’s been hit extremely hard over his past two outings, resulting in an average distance of 237 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 51%. That may not matter against an offense as anemic as the Giants’, but it’s still a red flag.
That leaves Snell as the most expensive option on the main slate, but he has a brutal matchup vs. the Boston Red Sox. Their projected lineup has posted a .346 wOBA and 20.5% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months, both of which are among the best marks on the slate. They’re implied for 4.6 runs vs. Snell, which is higher than you usually see for a pitcher of Snell’s character. Historically, pitchers with comparable price tags and opponent implied team totals have struggled, posting an average Plus/Minus of -4.57 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
He does offer strikeout upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) given his K Prediction of 8.1, but he’s way too risky to trust for cash games.
Values
Noah Syndergaard has struggled this season, pitching to a 4.83 ERA through his first 82.0 innings. He posted a Plus/Minus of -5.47 in his most recent start, but he pitched much better than that number indicates. He allowed just one run over 6.2 innings, but the Mets’ bullpen was unable to strand two runners than he left on base. Overall, it was a step in the right direction.
He’s in a great spot today vs. the Colorado Rockies. Their lineup has been abysmal on the road vs. right-handed pitchers this season, ranking just 28th in wRC+. Their strikeout rate of 25.3% is also the seventh-highest mark in this situation.
Overall, Syndergaard owns strong marks in opponent implied team total (3.4 runs), moneyline odds (-190), and K Prediction (6.1). Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.80 on FanDuel.
Max Fried is taking on the Miami Marlins, which gives him one of the best possible matchups for MLB DFS. Their projected lineup has posted a .291 wOBA and 23.5% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months, and they’re implied for just 3.5 runs on today’s slate.
Fried has also posted strong Statcast numbers over his past two starts, limiting opposing batters to an average distance of 198 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 23%.
Julio Teheran shut out the Marlins over six innings on Saturday, and Fried has similar upside today.
Fastballs
Wade Miley: He benefits from getting to pitch for an elite Astros’ offense, giving him -185 moneyline odds. His opponent implied team total of 3.6 is also one of the better marks on the slate.
Eduardo Rodriguez: He’s opposing Snell in Boston – which gives him a tough matchup – but he provides a nice combination of strikeout upside and recent Statcast data. He’s posted a K/9 of 9.84 over the past 12 months and owns a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -22 feet.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
- 1. Jorge Polanco (S)
- 2. Mitch Garver (R)
- 3. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 5. C.J. Cron (R)
Total Salary: $13,800
The Twins have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season, posting a 42-21 record through their first 63 games. They’ve done that on the back of an elite offense, leading the league with an average of 5.92 runs per game. Unsurprisingly, they’ve been one of the best teams to target from a fantasy perspective, with their batters averaging a Plus/Minus of +1.25 on FanDuel.
David Berding-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: CJ Cron
Cruz in particular stands out on today’s slate. He’s posted a .406 wOBA and .323 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months, and has absolutely crushed the baseball since coming off the disabled list three games ago. He’s posted an average distance of 294 feet, exit velocity of 100 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 66%, all of which are among the best marks on the slate. Cruz is simply too cheap at his current salary across the industry.
On the afternoon slate, the top five-man DraftKings slate belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
- 1. David Fletcher (R)
- 2. Mike Trout (R)
- 3. Shohei Ohtani (L)
- 4. Albert Pujols (R)
- 8. Kole Calhoun (L)
Total Salary: $22,900
The Angels are implied for 5.5 runs, which is the top mark on the afternoon slate by nearly a full run. They also lead the slate with a Team Value Rating of 74, which should make them a popular target. That said, stacking them in the above 1-2-3-4-8 manner should help. Calhoun will likely garner minimal ownership at the bottom of the lineup, which should increase your chances of having a contrarian lineup.
They’re taking on Mariners’ left-hander Wade LeBlanc, and he’s pitched to a dreadful 5.70 ERA this season. He’s struggled in particular against right-handed batters, allowing them to post a .361 wOBA. That should bode well for guys like Fletcher, Trout, and Pujols.
Other Batters
Christian Yelich will be on the wrong side of his batting splits vs. Pirates left-hander Steven Brault, which gives us an opportunity to buy low on him. He’s still posted elite marks vs. left-handers over the past 12 months, owning a .443 wOBA and .313 ISO, but he should command lower ownership. The Brewers are implied for 5.9 runs, so Yelich is in an excellent spot as well.
The Royals are implied for 5.2 runs on today’s slate, and Alex Gordon looks like a nice source of value. He’s priced at just $3,400 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%. He’s also on the positive side of his batting splits vs. Reynaldo Lopez and has posted solid Statcast marks over the past 15 days.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Mets SP Noah Syndergaard (34)
Photo credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
