The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a nine-game main slate starting at 1:35 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Kevin Gausman ($10,200) Toronto Blue Jays (-220) vs. Minnesota Twins
In his first season with the Blue Jays, Kevin Gausman has been incredible. Through 10 starts, Gausman has a career-best 2.51 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. In his 61 innings pitched, he has only allowed two home runs, which is good for a 0.30 HR/9. Pair that with his 28.7% strikeout rate and a career-best 9.9 launch angle, it should be no surprise that Gausman is one of the best pitching options on the slate.
The Twins have lost four of their last five and eight of their last 12 games. In that 12-game stretch, they are only averaging 2.1 runs per game in their losses. They are implied for 3.3 runs tonight, which is the lowest on the slate. The Twins are also missing some key players due to the COVID protocols, and Byron Buxton has fallen off after a terrific start. Great matchup for Gausman to continue his dominance.
Lucas Giolito ($9,600) Chicago White Sox (-114) at Tampa Bay Rays
The pitcher who is projected for the highest ownership on the slate today is Lucas Giolito. He is one of four pitchers who has above a six-strikeout prediction as he faces the Rays. Giolito and the White Sox are a slight favorite despite the Rays being nine games above .500. A big reason why Giolito has such high ownership is his 33.3% strikeout rate. He has at least five strikeouts in every game and is averaging 7.4 per game.
A 3.5-implied-run total for the Rays is tied for the second-lowest on the slate. They also have the worst team wOBA on Sunday, according to our projections. Giolito is coming off of his worst outing of the year, as he allowed six runs in just under five innings to the Blue Jays. His strikeout upside allows for a massive ceiling even if the Rays get a few runs across the board. Giolito is a very tough fade and one I wouldn’t recommend.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Kyle Gibson ($7,000) Philadelphia Phillies (-125) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Now is the perfect time to catch the Los Angeles Angels, as they are 0-10 in their last 10 games. Kyle Gibson will take the mound for the Phillies as they look for the series sweep. Gibson is known for being a finesse pitcher, but he does have a 21.9% strikeout rate this season, which is the second-best of his career. Allowing runs is simply going to happen with Gibson, but he should be able to get enough strikeouts to make him valuable.
The Angels have averaged 2.8 runs per game during their 10-game losing streak and have the worst team strikeout/at-bat on the entire slate. Pitching against Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout will also be a little scary, but Gibson’s salary provides incredible value today. With six pitchers priced above $9,000 on DraftKings, Gibson is a perfect second pitcher in lineups. The matchup may seem scary, but go with the value.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Eric Lauer ($9,900) Milwaukee Brewers (-132) vs. San Diego Padres
The projected ownership on Eric Lauer is borderline egregious at under 3% right now. This is also a revenge game if you are into that, as Lauer pitched for the Padres for the first two seasons of his career. He is in his third season with the Brewers and has a career-best 2.49 ERA and 29.3% strikeout rate. Lauer has increased his strikeout numbers rapidly, which is why he has so much upside, even at this high salary.
The Padres are not a great offense by any means, but they have Manny Machado, who is a one-man wrecking crew. If Lauer can escape Machado, he should have no trouble with the rest of this Padres lineup that is tied for the fifth-lowest ISO in the league. Getting overweight to Lauer feels like a very strong tournament strategy, as the Padres are only implied for 3.6 runs and, once again, Lauer’s ownership is way too low.
Framber Valdez ($9,400) Houston Astros (-230) at Kansas City Royals
Not many pitchers scream tournament play like Framber Valdez. His inconsistent start to the season is overshadowing his recent success, as Valdez has been very good lately. He is coming off a complete game against the Athletics where he threw a season-high 114 pitches and had seven strikeouts. Even though his strikeout rate is dropping this season, Valdez still has the upside to take advantage of this matchup.
The Astros are the biggest favorite on the slate against the Royals, mainly due to their high-powered offense. Valdez is the highest-priced pitcher on FanDuel, but he comes at an 89% Bargain Rating on DraftKings at the fifth-highest price. Pairing a pitcher with an offensive stack is a unique way to go if the Astros blow out the Royals today. Valdez is a high-upside way to get different on this slate with the expensive pitchers.
MLB DFS Hitters
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling, belongs to the Houston Astros:
The Houston Astros are the top stack according to THE BAT and our in-house projections. Their 5.9-implied-run total is the highest on the slate as they will go up against Royals right-hander Jon Heasley ($5,000). The Astros hold the second-best record in the American League and have won five of their last six games. After being shut out last night, they’ll look to bounce back in a big way against the young right-hander.
This will be Heasley’s eighth career major league start, and he has really struggled in his previous seven. Over that time, Heasley has a 4.76 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and just a 10.7% strikeout rate. The Astros as a team have the sixth-lowest strikeout rate, so expect a lot of balls in play. Heasley has also allowed a 49.5% hard-hit rate, which is perfect for the Astros, who rank fourth in the league in ISO and home runs this season.
Yordan Alvarez leads the way for the Astros, as he leads the team in average, home runs, RBI, and many other statistics. He also is swinging a very hot bat, as he has at least two hits or walks in six-straight games. During that stretch, Alvarez has a .522 average with eight RBIs and three home runs. He makes for a great one-off play if you decide to fade this stack and go a different direction today.
Besides Alvarez, the rest of this Astros lineup has been very boom or bust. Each player has been relatively struggling lately, but this is a great spot to get back on track. Michael Brantley leads the team in hits, and Kyle Tucker leads them in steals. Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman possess plenty of upside as proven veterans. Expect this stack to be popular, as the Astros have a Team Value Rating of 82 in this matchup.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Jose Ramirez 3B ($6,000 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles (Dean Kremer)
There are several boom-or-bust, high-priced players, but Jose Ramirez has the consistency that stands out among the pack. Over the last five games, he has four where he scored 12 or more DraftKings points. He leads the Guardians in basically every statistic, which is why he is priced so much higher than any of his teammates. Ramirez also has recorded positive points in 16-straight and 26 of his last 27 games.
The Guardians really need to send Ramirez some help because he literally has a career-high in all of these statistics: ISO, wOBA, OPS, and strikeout rate. He also has over a 40% hard-hit rate for the second-straight season. He will draw a great matchup against Dean Kremer, who will be making his season debut. Kremer had 13 starts last season and had a 7.55 ERA and 2.85 HR/9. Ramirez is the best one-off on the slate.
Nick Senzel OF ($2,400 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
The best value play on the entire slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel today is Nick Senzel. He is leading the way in projected Plus/Minus by a landslide, as he has a positive Plus/Minus in four-straight games and is still priced extremely cheap. Senzel is projected to bat leadoff for the Reds, who have a 5.6-implied-run total, which is second on the slate to our stack of the day the Astros. Great spot for Senzel.
Senzel and the Reds will get a matchup against left-hander Patrick Corbin, who has a career-high 6.96 ERA in his 11 starts this season. Corbin is also allowing a career-high 45.2% hard-hit rate and a 1.79 WHIP. His 18.5% strikeout rate is also a career-low. Corbin has fallen off the map and specifically struggles against right-handed bats like Senzel. With so many options to pay up for, Senzel is a great salary saver.
Mike Trout ($4,900 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel) Los Angeles Angels at Philadelphia Phillies (Kyle Gibson)
Whenever Mike Trout is being brought up for a career statistic, normally it is good, but not this time. Trout is in the midst of his longest hitless streak of his career, as he is 0-for-23 since last Saturday. Keep an eye on the Angels starting lineup, as they may give him a day off, but it won’t be long until Trout is back crushing baseballs. Seeing this salary on one of the best hitters of all-time is really peaking my interest.
Trout’s Statcast data is still very strong, as he has a career-high 20.8% barrel rating and a 47.5% hard-hit rate. His ISO is still above .300 for the season, and he has nearly a 1.000 OPS. Not only is Trout struggling, but so are the Angels. They haven’t won a game in their last 10 and are averaging 2.8 runs per game during that time. Don’t let a little slump fool you; Trout is still a fantastic option against right-hander Kyle Gibson today.
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($4,200 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies (Ryan Feltner)
FanDuel’s main slate has 11 games, including the Coors Field game that features the Atlanta Braves and stud outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. When looking at our projections, he is impossible to ignore when crossing over to FanDuel, so I needed to mention him in this article if you are taking your talents to FanDuel today. Acuna Jr. has the highest projection in THE BAT and our in-house projections by far on the slate.
Rockies pitcher Ryan Feltner has been very impressive this season after a horrendous 2021 campaign. In his lone home start, Feltner threw seven innings only allowing one earned run while recording six strikeouts against the Marlins. The Braves have won four-straight as they look for the series sweep against the Rockies today. If playing FanDuel, prioritize getting Acuna Jr. in your lineups.
