Sunday’s main slate features 11 games starting at 1:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
The four pitchers projected to score the most fantasy points today are:
Brandon Woodruff (R)
Robbie Ray (L)
Chris Bassitt (R)
Jose Berrios (R)
The highest priced pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel is Brandon Woodruff. In 107 1/3 innings this season, Woodruff has a 2.10 ERA, a team-leading 4.3 WAR (wins above replacement) and 13 quality starts. Due to pitching today, he is not available to play in the MLB All-Star game, however, is fully deserving of the honor.
After losing their last two games, the Brewers are hoping to get back in the win column today facing the Reds, who are projected for the lowest implied runs total on the slate this afternoon of 3.1 runs. Another reason to back Woodruff is that he has been dominant at home this season. In 48 2/3 innings pitched, he has a 3-0 record, 57 strikeouts and an opponent’s batting average of .199.
Since being traded to the Blue Jays last year, Robbie Ray has pitched well in the American League. Over 93 2/3 innings on the mound this year, Ray has struck out 119 with a 3.36 ERA and winning record (6-4).
My only concern with Ray is that he has given up quite a few home runs this campaign. Ray has allowed a total of 20 homers in 2021, including at least one in 13 of his last 14 outings. Bales Model is not high on Ray today as there are some better options, however he does have a favorable matchup against Tampa Bay. The Rays are the only team in baseball to strike out over 900 times through their 89 games played (912 strikeouts).
Another pitcher that is projected for a large sum of fantasy points, but is not highly rated on Bales Model is Chris Bassitt. Although Bassitt has an impressive 9-2 record, his 3.41 ERA and 1.07 WHIP show that there is still room for improvement.
After three consecutive quality starts, Bassitt was rocked by the Astros last outing. Over 4 1/3 innings, he gave up eight hits, six earned runs and two home runs. Hoping to get back on track, Bassitt and the Athletics will be taking on the Rangers this afternoon. The Rangers are currently 15 games back of the second place Athletics in the AL West.
A pitcher considered a 97% bargain by Pro Trends for DraftKings today is Jose Berrios from the Minnesota Twins. Similar to Bassitt, Berrios 7-3 record is impressive, however his 3.36 ERA could be a bit better. Last outing, Berrios allowed only one hit in seven innings pitched, collecting a season-high 10 strikeouts.
Although he was dominant on the mound, Berrios did add a digit to his loss column due to the lack of run support. Hoping for some additional run support today, Berrios and the Twins will be taking on the Detroit Tigers who have lost their last three games.
Value
Bales Model projects the highest rated pitcher on FanDuel to be the Cubs’ Trevor Williams. If his last four games are a trend, Williams is set for a solid fantasy output and will not give up any home runs today. His 5.51 ERA is concerning, but he has done a great job managing the damage done with numerous base runners. Williams is considered a 95% bargain by Pro Trends for FanDuel today.
Another inexpensive pitcher that is highly rated on Bales Model is Adam Wainwright. For only the second time all season, Wainwright allowed more walks than strikeouts last start. Hoping to amend his fortune, he will be starting opposite Williams.
Hitters
Notable Stack
Today’s top projected points stack comes to you from the -178 Chicago White Sox:
- Tim Anderson (R)
- Yoan Moncada (S)
- Jose Abreu (R)
- Brian Goodwin (L)
The White Sox have the highest projected implied runs total on the slate (6.1 runs) and are hoping to take advantage of playing the American League worst Baltimore Orioles (28-60). Orioles pitcher Spenser Watkins is making only his second career start today and has a tough task at hand. It is worth noting that yesterday’s top team stack scored 22 runs (Dodgers).
On FanDuel, this White Sox stack will cost you $13k in salary and are projected for a combined 51.3 fantasy points.
Other Hitters
Bales Model projects the highest floor play on the slate is Nelson Cruz. After a strong first three months of the season in which Cruz hit 18 home runs, he has yet to hit a long ball in July. Although he has only played in 77 games, Cruz leads the Twins with those 18 homers ahead of the All-Star break. We will see if he can increase that total today.
A batter highly rated on Bales Model worth discussing is Jean Segura. Last game, Segura went 3-for-5 with a home run and three RBIs. Although he has missed some of the season due to injury, he has an impressive .325 batting average.
Value
Finally, here is a handful of batters to consider while completing your lineups today that are projected for a high fantasy points/salary:
- Jonah Heim
- Jared Oliva
- Jorge Soler
- Yandy Diaz
- Ben Gamel
Pictured above: Brandon Woodruff
Credit: Matt Marton/MLB Photos via Getty Images
