The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate features 10 games starting at 1:05 p.m. ET. Be sure to keep an eye on the weather in Kansas City, which looks miserable and could be a washout.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Alek Manoah ($10,000) Toronto Blue Jays (-265) vs. Oakland Athletics
With a few notable names on the Sunday afternoon slate in Zack Wheeler, Alex Wood and Vince Velasquez, one pitcher stands out among SP1s on DraftKings — Alek Manoah, who is among the best-rated players in our Tournament Model on Sunday.
The second-year starter has continued his dominance from last year, striking out seven batters in six innings of work as part of a 3-0 win over the New York Yankees on Apr. 11. In his rookie campaign, Manoah posted a 9-2 record in 20 starts with a 3.22 ERA, 27.7% K rate and 1.05 WHIP. On Sunday, Manoah and the Blue Jays come in as a massive -265 favorite against the Oakland Athletics, who are implied for 3.3 runs, which is the lowest on the slate. Benefitting from the dome in the Rogers Centre, Manoah also has the second-best weather rating for pitchers and is projected for 7.23 strikeouts against a projected Athletics lineup that has a 0.286 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
With a lofty $10,000 salary on DraftKings, Manoah will need to make easy work of the Athletics bats to pay off the salary while also depending on the Blue Jays’ power bats to provide run support.
Zack Wheeler ($10,200) Philadelphia Phillies (-148) at Miami Marlins
If looking for a more brand-name arm for Sunday’s slate, Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler might be a safe choice. Wheeler, who is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, should come with a bit of an ownership discount from Manoah but is certainly not in a smash spot. Even with a projected longer leash (we’re projecting him to throw around 100 pitches), Wheeler should have an effective outing about the Marlins bats and is projected for the second-most strikeouts at 6.38. A stud pitcher through and through, Wheeler also benefits from a low implied total from the Marlins (3.7 runs) and an ideal Park Factor Rating for pitchers in LoanDepot Park, and he has a +2.46 Projected Plus/Minus.
Per the Trends tool, when Wheeler is a -145 favorite, he has averaged 22.25 actual DraftKings points and a +4.93 Plus/Minus.
Personally, I’ll take the consistency and ownership discount — paying up for Wheeler over Manoah.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Patrick Corbin ($6,500) Washington Nationals (-110) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Hyper-volatile Washington Nationals pitcher Patrick Corbin projects as the top value on Sunday’s slate. At a deeply discounted $6,500 on DraftKings, Corbin is projected to easily pay off his salary against the Pittsburgh Pirates, based on projected strikeouts (5.6), the third-highest Park Factor Rating for pitchers, and an ideal Weather Rating, likely due to colder temperatures forecast for the Pittsburgh area. The project Pirates lineup also has the highest strikeout-per-at-bat average a 0.311, which may help Corbin make easy work in the series finale.
Making two starts so far this season, Corbin is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA, 18.4% K rate and a 2.85 WHIP — all of which signal he may be a more risky play at SP2.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Nestor Cortes ($8,200) New York Yankees (-197) at Baltimore Orioles
When sorting by ceiling projection in our Player Models, Manoah and Wheeler jump to the top of the list. But for a deep discount and lower projected ownership, turn to New York Yankees arm Nestor Cortes against the Baltimore Orioles.
Cortes is a massive -195 road favorite in Camden Yards, also benefitting from a low 3.7-run implied total from the projected Orioles lineup. Making 14 starts last season, Cortes posted a 2-3 record with a 2.90 ERA, 27.5% K rate and a 1.08 WHIP. The projected Orioles lineup looks more disciplined at the plate with the second-lowest strikeout-per-at-bat average, which may limit Cortes’ upside.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by median projection belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
- Vladimir Guerrero (3) ($5,700)
- Bo Bichette (2) ($5,000)
- Raimel Tapia (6) ($3,000)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (4) ($3,900)
- George Springer (1) ($5,000)
The Blue Jays have power and are facing a rookie arm coming off a very short debut in Adam Oller.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings, but in the interest of having a more unique lineup, swapping Matt Chapman for Raimel Tapia at an ownership discount is appealing, especially with the Blue Jays likely to be a popular option Sunday.
Toronto has the highest implied total on the main slate thanks to the absence of Coors, and the projected lineup has the fourth highest wOBA at 0.329. Look for the power bats to be a key feature in the runs generated Sunday.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling, belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
To start the season, the Phillies have been very fun to watch, putting up 10 runs Saturday. Continuing the trend Sunday, the Phillies have a decent 4.7-implied-run total, despite the pitcher-friendly venue of LoanDepot Park. Be prepared to spend up if considering the Phillies. Like the Blue Jays, you’ll pay up for power, with the correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack costing more than half of your salary.
Our projections have the Phillies bats giving Marlins pitcher Elieser Hernandez trouble, projecting them for 4.85 runs. With finding the runs being the name of the game in MLB DFS, the Phillies might be the key that unlocks the slate.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Luis Arraez 2B/3B ($2,400 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox (Michael Wacha)
In looking for value on the slate and taking out the Phillies and Blue Jays bats, Minnesota Twins infielder Luis Arraez projects as a top value. Interestingly, Arraez is tagged for five Pro Trends, including a respectable 4.7-implied-run total for the Twins against Michael Wacha. Arraez boasts one of the highest Bargain Ratings on DraftKings and looks to bat second, projected to precede Carlos Correa. The deep discount on DraftKings and ideal projected spot in the lineup makes him a one-off play that may come in handy when stacking premium bats.
Luis Robert OF ($5,900 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (J.P Feyereisen – opener)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Chicago White Sox outfielder Luis Robert should be in the conversation Sunday, as he is projected for the highest ceiling. Robert does come with a steep price tag ($5,900 on DraftKings) as part of a powerful Chicago White Sox lineup projected for 4.4 runs against a Tampa Bay Rays team choosing to go the opener route Sunday.
Robert is projected to bat second, between the speedy Tim Anderson and Jose Abreu, an ideal spot for an 85th-percentile outcome. With extremely low ownership, Robert also looks to be an attractive GPP play.
Brandon Lowe 2B ($5,700 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox (Vince Velasquez)
On the other side of the White Sox matchup, Tampa Bay Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe projects for one of the highest Player Ratings in our Tournament Model. Lowe should benefit in an ideal matchup against Vince Velasquez and should give the Rays plenty of power in their lineup, likely batting leadoff. This matchup might be a higher-scoring affair with both teams implied to score more than four runs and may be overlooked, as projected ownership is low.
