The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a 15-game slate starting at 3:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers on today’s slate are priced above the rest on FanDuel:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $12,300, HOU @ LAA
- Mike Clevinger (R) $11,600, CLE @ WSH
- Jack Flaherty (R) $11,000, STL vs. CHC
The Astros have already clinched the best record in baseball, so today’s contest vs. the Angels is merely a tune-up for Cole before the postseason. Teammate Justin Verlander was limited to just 80 pitches yesterday, so that seems like a reasonable expectation for Cole on the final day of the regular season.
Still, he’s in an excellent spot vs. the Los Angeles Angels. Verlander was able to rack up 12 strikeouts yesterday despite his reduced workload, and Cole has been the best strikeout pitcher in baseball this season. He’s posted an average of 13.72 strikeout per nine innings, and he’s recorded double-digit strikeouts in each of his past eight outings.
Cole is far from a slam dunk at his current price tag, but he has upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
The Indians will ultimately come up short in their quest for the postseason, so Clevinger doesn’t have the same pitch count concerns as Cole. He’s been absolutely dominant over 120.1 innings this season, pitching to a 2.39 ERA, 2.37 FIP and 12.34 K/9, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +11.61 over his past 10 starts on FanDuel.
Unfortunately, he’s in a tough spot vs. the Washington Nationals. Their projected lineup has been solid against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .327 wOBA and 25.3% strikeout rate. Clevinger owns an opponent implied team total of 4.1 runs, which is significantly higher than the marks of the other stud pitchers.
That said, make sure to monitor the Nationals lineup prior to lock. They clinched home-field advantage in the NL Wild Card game with their win over the Indians on Saturday, so they could potentially sit some of their regulars in today’s contest. That would increase Clevinger’s appeal.
Flaherty stands out as the safest stud option today for cash games. This is an absolutely massive game for the Cardinals. If they win, they guarantee the best record in the NL Central and avoid a dreaded Wild Card matchup vs. Max Scherzer and the Nats. If they lose, they could wind up in a tie with the Milwaukee Brewers, which would set up a tiebreaker game on Monday.
With that in mind, expect the Cardinals to treat Flaherty’s start today like the first game of the postseason. He’s taking on an unimposing Cubs lineup that has struggled to a .273 wOBA and 30.7% strikeout rate vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. Flaherty owns a 3.2 opponent implied team total and -276 moneyline odds, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.54 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
He’s a particularly strong option today on DraftKings, where his $9,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.
Values
Noah Syndergaard could be making his final start as a member of the New York Mets. He’s had a disappointing year in 2019, posting a 4.30 ERA, and he’s rumored to be available in the offseason heading into the final year of his contract.
That said, Syndergaard has undoubtedly gotten unlucky this season. His 3.61 FIP is significantly better than his traditional ERA, and he’s posted below-average marks in both BABIP and strand rate. His Statcast data from his past two starts is also solid, particularly his hard-hit rate of 21%.
He’s taking on the Atlanta Braves today, which is a formidable matchup on paper. They rank ninth in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season, and they’re currently implied for 4.0 runs. Still, they’re another team with nothing to play for before the postseason, so they could rest a few starters. Ronald Acuna Jr. has already been shut down for the rest of the regular season, and guys like Freddie Freeman and Josh Donaldson are also candidates for some rest.
Syndergaard is better target on FanDuel, where his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Tyler Mahle could be a nice source of value today vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was roughed up in his last start, allowing seven earned runs over just 2.1 innings, but his Statcast data from the past 15 days is encouraging: 182-foot average distance, 88 mile per hour exit velocity, 24% hard-hit rate. All three are decreases compared to his 12-month averages.
The Pirates also represent a solid matchup. Their projected lineup has struggled vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .296 wOBA and 25.7% strikeout rate. Mahle’s opponent implied team total of 4.1 runs doesn’t jump off the page, but it’s a solid mark considering his salary.
Fastballs
Eduardo Rodriguez: He was crushed in his last outing, but he had posted a Plus/Minus of at least +8.67 in each of his four previous starts. He’s in a great bounce-back spot today vs. the Baltimore Orioles, who rank merely 23rd in wRC+ vs. left-handers this season.
Lance Lynn: He has a brutal matchup vs. the New York Yankees, but his $9,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He also has solid strikeout upside, evidenced by a K Prediction of 9.0.
Masahiro Tanaka: He’ll likely see some sort of reduced workload today, but he can still provide some fantasy value on a pitch count. He scored 27.35 DraftKings points in his last outing despite throwing just 86 pitches.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
- 1. Joey Wendle (L)
- 2. Austin Meadows (L)
- 3. Tommy Pham (R)
- 4. Ji-Man Choi (L)
- 5. Travis d’Arnaud (R)
Total Salary: $20,600
The Rays should carry minimal ownership on today’s slate. They’re currently implied for 5.4 runs, which ranks merely tied for ninth among today’s offenses. They’ve also already clinched their postseason position — they’ll play on the road in Oakland in the AL Wild Card game — so there’s no guarantee their starters will see a full complement of at-bats.
Still, it’s hard to deny their upside. They’re taking on Blue Jays right-hander Clay Buchholz, who has been an absolute disaster this season. He’s pitched to a 7.00 ERA and 5.77 FIP while allowing an average of 2.00 HRs per nine innings.
Wendle stands out as an elite value as the projected leadoff hitter. He’s priced at just $3,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and leadoff hitters with comparable salaries and implied team totals have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.52 on DraftKings. He’s also made excellent contact over the past 15 days, exceeding his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
On FanDuel, the top four-man stack belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
- 1. LaMonte Wade (L)
- 2. Jorge Polanco (S)
- 3. Miguel Sano (R)
- 5. Jake Cave (L)
Total Salary: $12,200
The Twins are going with a bit of an unusual lineup on the final day of the regular season, which is creating some value. Guys like Wade and Cave are batting much higher in the lineup than usual, so they are underpriced. The Twins are implied for 6.1 runs, so they still have plenty of upside despite not playing their “A” lineup.
They’re taking on Royals right-hander Jorge Lopez, who has struggled this season. He’s posted a 6.35 ERA and 5.37 FIP despite a respectable K/9 of 8.11. He’s been victimized in particular by left-handed batters: They’ve posted a .404 wOBA while averaging 2.15 HRs per nine innings.
Wade has gotten his first taste of big league action during the month of September, and he’s held his own against right-handed pitching. He’s posted a 122 wRC+ and .217 ISO while clubbing two HRs over 46 at-bats. He’s a steal at just $2,200.
Other Batters
Coors Field is available on the slate, and targeting the Brewers and Rockies is obviously a viable strategy. The Brewers lead all teams with an implied team total of 7.3 runs, and Trent Grisham is massively underpriced on FanDuel as the projected leadoff hitter. His $3,400 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. Rockies right-hander Jeff Hoffman.
Aaron Judge stands out as an elite option on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and the Yankees are currently implied for 6.0 runs. He leads all batters with 14 Pro Trends, and batters with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.61 on DraftKings.
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Pictured above: Cardinals SP Jack Flaherty (22)
Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
