The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
DraftKings and FanDuel will have 11-game main slates starting at 1:07 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Trevor Bauer (R), $11,300, CLE @ CIN
- Patrick Corbin (L), $10,500, WSH vs. KC
- Charlie Morton (R), $10,200, TB vs. NYY
Bauer checks in as the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel by $800 for his matchup against the Reds. On paper, it’s a solid matchup since the projected Reds lineup has a 28% strikeout rate and .307 against righties over the past 12 months while ranking 28th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against them this season.
That said, with four teams implied for at least 5.9 runs on Sunday, I’d rather pay a little bit further down to get some more expensive bats into the lineup. He’s also not the best value on FanDuel with his 5% Bargain Rating. And per our Trends tool, pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions (8.6) against teams with comparable implied run totals (4.3) have historically struggled to meet salary-based expectations as they’ve averaged a -6.72 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 39.1% Consistency Rating.
If I am paying up for a top-priced pitcher in cash games, it’s probably Corbin. The projected Royals lineup has a middling 24.2% strikeout rate, but also a weak .282 wOBA. Overall, they’ve struggled versus lefties this year, ranking 29th in team ISO and 28th in wRC+ against them.
Overall, the Nationals have some of the most favorable Vegas data on the slate, sporting -241 moneyline odds and the Royals are implied for a slate-low 3.5 runs.
Morton won’t be near my cash game rosters, but he’s an intriguing tournament pivot in a tough matchup. He’s been excellent this season, pitching to a 3.22 xFIP with a massive 30.9% strikeout rate. The downside is the difficult spot against the Yankees. They’ve destroyed right-handed pitchers this year as they rank first in wRC+ and wOBA, and second ISO against them.
Values
Without any single pitcher standing out on today’s slate, Dallas Keuchel and his 92% Bargain Rating on FanDuel would be a good way to lock in some value for just $7,300 if you’re looking to load up on bats.
The main issue with Keuchel is he isn’t a high-strikeout pitcher which limits his overall upside. However, it’s an unimposing matchup against a projected Marlins lineup that has a 27.8% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months. They also rank 29th or worse in both ISO and wRC+. Additionally, the Braves check in as sizeable -209 moneyline favorites while the Marlins are implied for a meager 3.9 runs.
On DraftKings, if you want to completely punt the SP2 spot, Trenton Thornton costs just $5,000 with a 99% Bargain Rating against the Orioles. His +7.31 Projected Plus/Minus on Draftings is the second-highest mark on the main slate, and he has a decent 6.5 K Prediction against a projected lineup that has a 27.3% strikeout rate.
The downside with Thornton is he’s been awful of late, allowing 12 earned runs over his last two starts. He has a decent 23.2% strikeout rate this year, but he also has a walk rate of 10.3%. He can get into trouble with his 1.54 WHIP and the Orioles are implied for 4.6 runs, but at $5,000 you won’t need much out of him.
Rostering Thornton won’t feel great, but he could be a way to unlock some salary to get to the high-priced bats.
Fastballs
Aaron Nola: His matchup against the Mets doesn’t stand out, but Nola has been dominant over his last three starts, striking out eight, 10 and 10 hitters. One of those 10-strikeout games came against the Mets just barely a week ago.
Zack Wheeler: We’ll have somewhat of a pitching duel in New York with Nola pitching opposite of Wheeler. This game is currently a pickem’ with both pitchers entering this game in solid form. Wheeler has held opposing hitters to just a 179-foot average distance over his last three starts.
Both Nola and Wheeler project within a few points of each other in our models.
David Price: He’s an option if you want to go a bit cheaper than Nola and Wheeler. He’s at least a clear favorite as the Red Sox are sitting with -254 moneyline odds against the Tigers. Their projected lineup carries a high 27.7% strikeout rate and awful .274 wOBA. It’s a plus-matchup against a team that ranks 24th in wRC+ against lefties this season.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top four-man DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Boston Red Sox.
- 1. Mookie Betts (R)
- 2. Rafael Devers (L)
- 3. Xander Boegarts (R)
- 4. J.D. Martinez (R)
Total salary: $20,200
It’s no surprise the Red Sox sit atop the top stacks with their 6.3 implied run total against the Tigers. At the time of writing, these four hitters are in the top six of our median projections among all hitters for Sunday’s main slate. The main downside to this stack is how expensive it is, which may require you to punt elsewhere to make it work.
It’s a prime matchup against Gregory Soto, who has struggled this season, pitching to a 6.11 xFIP with a 3.7% K-BB%. The matchup against the lefty will put Martinez on the positive side of his splits. He’s smashed lefties over the past 12 months, sporting an elite .456 wOBA and .333 ISO against them. Boegarts is in the same boat, boasting a .420 wOBA and .261 ISO against them over the past year.
Overall, this stack may be a slightly better on value on DraftKings as Betts, Boegarts and Martinez all have Bargain Ratings above 70%.
One of the top FanDuel stacks for the main slate in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
- 1. Jonathan Villar (S)
- 2. Dwight Smith Jr. (L)
- 3. Trey Mancini (R)
- 4. Chance Sisco (L)
Total salary: $13,400
The Orioles check in as one of the top stacks on FanDuel against Thornton. He’s been throttled over his last two starts, allowing 18 hits and 12 earned runs across just 5.3 innings. Over those two starts, hitters allowed a 253-foot average batted-ball distance against him. Per our Trends tool, hitters against pitchers with comparable Statcast data have averaged a +1.28 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
The matchup against Thornton should bode well for Sisco as he owns a .334 wOBA and .282 ISO against them over the past year. Additionally, he’s crushing the baseball right now, averaging a 265-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 43% hard-hit rate.
Villar is also in good form, sporting a 226-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 48% hard-hit rate. His hard-hit rate exceeds his 12-month average by a whopping 21 percentage points. Villar also has the benefit of bringing some stolen base upside to the mix considering he’s already swiped 17 bags this season.
This stack makes the most sense on FanDuel since Thornton is a potential punt option as an SP2 on DraftKings.
Other Batters
Anthony Rizzo is in a good spot against Ivan Nova. Over the past year, Nova has an abysmal 1.46 WHIP, 1.59 HR/9 and 5.86 K/9. He also isn’t in the best form, allowing opposing hitters to average a 236-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 41% hard-hit rate. Furthermore, Rizzo will be on the positive side of his splits, hitting lefties to the tune of a .420 wOBA and .256 ISO over the past 12 months.
Shohei Ohtani carries a 94% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and while their 4.5 implied run total is underwhelming, Ohtani is in incredible form right now. Over the past two weeks, Ohtani has a 242-foot average distance, 98-mph exit velocity and 61% hard-hit rate, all of which exceed his 12-month averages. Furthermore, he’ll be on the positive side of his splits, smashing right-handed pitchers with his .408 wOBA and .332 ISO.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani
Photo credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
