The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate: There’s a nine-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET and a three-game afternoon slate starting at 4:07 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Four pitchers stand out above the rest today on FanDuel:
- Jacob deGrom (R) $10,800, NYM @ MIA
- Shane Bieber (R) $10,600, CLE vs. MIN
- Justin Verlander (R) $10,500, HOU @ TEX
- Jose Berrios (R) $10,000, MIN @ CLE
deGrom got off to a rough start this season, but he’s been phenomenal since the beginning of May. He’s posted a 2.79 ERA and 2.94 FIP over his past 13 starts while recording an average of 10.18 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in 11 of those starts. Overall, he remains the most consistent starter in fantasy.
He’s also in a wonderful spot today vs. the Miami Marlins. They’ve been the lowest-scoring team in baseball this season, and their projected lineup has posted a .296 wOBA and 29.5% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Fellow right-hander Noah Syndergaard limited the Marlins to two runs over seven innings on Saturday, adding nine strikeouts for good measure.
deGrom leads today’s slate in three key pitching categories: opponent implied team total (2.8 runs), moneyline odds (-212) and K Prediction (10.3). Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.83 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool). He’s reasonably priced across the industry, making him an easy choice for cash games.
Bieber had his coming out party during the All-Star game, recording three strikeouts in one inning en route to the MVP award, but he’s been a strong fantasy asset all season. He’s posted a career-best 11.30 K/9, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +4.64 on FanDuel. He’s been even better over his past 10 starts, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +8.75.
He’s is in a difficult spot today vs. the Minnesota Twins, though. They rank sixth in wRC+ and first in ISO against right-handers this season, and they’ve averaged the most runs per game. The result is an implied team total of 4.0 runs, which is higher than usual for a stud pitcher like Bieber.
Still, he does have some appeal. His K Prediction of 7.8 trails only deGrom’s, and his Statcast data from his past two starts is excellent. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 184 feet, which represents a decrease of 25 feet compared to his 12-month average. Pitchers with comparable distance differentials and K Predictions have historically been strong investments, averaging a Plus/Minus of +2.61 on DraftKings.
Berrios is opposing Bieber in Cleveland, and he’s a more difficult sell. He’s a +127 underdog, and his opponent implied team total of 4.6 runs makes him tough to trust at his current salary. Pitchers with comparable price tags and Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of -4.08 on FanDuel.
He also doesn’t offer nearly the same strikeout upside as deGrom and Bieber. He’s pitched to a K/9 of just 8.81 over the past 12 months, and the Indians own a below-average strikeout rate against right-handers this season.
Values
The pitching options on the afternoon slate are pretty uninspiring, but Jose Suarez stands out as a solid option. He’s particularly appealing at $6,300 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Suarez has struggled this season, but one area where he has excelled is with his strikeout ability. He’s posted a K/9 of 9.53 through his first 28.1 big league innings, and he has nice upside today vs. the Seattle Mariners. They’ve posted the seventh-highest strikeout rate against southpaws this season, giving Suarez a K Prediction of 6.9. That’s the top mark on the afternoon slate.
Suarez has also posted excellent Statcast marks over his past two starts. He’s held opposing batters to an average distance of just 188 feet, which represents a decrease of -30 feet compared to his 12-month average.
Zack Greinke is not a dominating strikeout pitcher, but he’s been excellent so far this season. He’s pitched to a 2.73 ERA and 3.15 FIP, both of which rank in the top 10 among starters.
Greinke relies on limiting damage on balls in play, and he’s become one of the best pitchers in baseball in that department. His Statcast data from his past two starts is particularly elite: He’s posted an average batted-ball distance of 168 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 26%, all of which are among the best marks on the slate.
He’s in a nice spot today vs. the St. Louis Cardinals. Their projected lineup has posted a .315 wOBA and 27.1% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, and they rank just 23rd in wRC+ against right-handers this season.
Greinke should also benefit from getting to pitch in St. Louis. He’s posted a 2.47 ERA on the road this season, and Busch Stadium has been one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball.
Fastballs
Trevor Williams: He’s in an interesting spot today vs. the Chicago Cubs. Their projected lineup has posted a 29.7% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the highest splits-adjusted mark on the slate. That gives him nice K upside at just $7,000 on DraftKings.
Mike Soroka: He has a nice matchup today vs. the San Diego Padres, whose projected lineup has posted a .299 wOBA and 25.5% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. He should also benefit from getting to face them in Petco Park, which has been the best pitcher’s park in baseball this season.
Masahiro Tanaka: He’s a strong -205 favorite vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, who rank just 24th in wRC+ against right-handers this season. Tanaka has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.82 on FanDuel when pitching at home, and his $8,100 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 79%.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
- 1. Lorenzo Cain (R)
- 2. Christian Yelich (L)
- 3. Yasmani Grandal (S)
- 6. Eric Thames (L)
Total Salary: $13,800
The Brewers are currently implied for 5.4 runs, which is tied for the third-highest mark on the main slate. Their Team Value Rating of 81 also ranks third on the slate.
They’re in a nice spot today vs. Giants right-hander Tyler Beede. He’s struggled this season, pitching to a 5.64 ERA and 5.55 FIP, despite the fact that he plays his home games at the extremely pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. He has unsurprisingly been much worse when playing on the road.
Yelich and Grandal stand out as elite options in this matchup, but don’t sleep on Thames as the projected No. 6 hitter. He’s posted solid marks against right-handers over the past 12 months and has absolutely crushed the baseball over the past 15 days. He’s averaged a 260-foot distance, 97 mph exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate, and his $2,800 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
On the afternoon slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
- 1. David Fletcher (R)
- 2. Mike Trout (R)
- 3. Shohei Ohtani (L)
- 4. Justin Upton (R)
- 6. Albert Pujols (R)
Total Salary: $23,300
The Angels lead the afternoon slate with an implied team total of 5.9 runs, and they’re in a wonderful spot against Mariners left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. He’s struggled in his first MLB season, pitching to a 4.94 ERA and 5.36 FIP. He’s also managed just 6.68 strikeout per nine innings, and the Angels own the second-lowest strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. The Angels should put a lot of balls in play against Kikuchi at a bare minimum.
You don’t need me to tell you that Trout is a great play today – he’s a great play everyday – but he’s been producing at a special level recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.61 on DraftKings over his past 10 games, and his Statcast data over that time frame is outstanding. His 282-foot average distance especially stands out and represents an increase of +37 feet compared to his 12-month average. Trout has gone yard eight times in his past seven games, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him do it again today.
Other Batters
The Royals are currently implied for 5.5 runs vs. Tigers right-hander Jordan Zimmermann, which makes Whit Merrifield an elite option at just $3,700 on FanDuel. He’s expected to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup, and Merrifield has been better against right-handers than left-handers this season. Only Yelich owns a higher median projection among batters on the main slate.
Bryce Harper is taking on his old teammates, and he’s one of the best pure values on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits against Anibal Sanchez, who has allowed left-handed batters to post a .344 wOBA this season.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Mets SP Jacob deGrom (48)
Photo credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
