Sunday features a two-game slate starting at 4:10 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Today’s slate features a clear-cut top option on DraftKings:
- Hyun-Jin Ryu (L) $8,900, LAD @ WSH
- Mike Soroka (R) $7,500, ATL @ STL
- Adam Wainwright (R) $5,700, STL vs. ATL
- Anibal Sanchez (R) $5,500, WSH vs. LAD
Ryu is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, and he put together an excellent season in 2019. He led all qualified starters with a 2.32 ERA after pitching to a 1.97 ERA over 15 starts in 2018.
That said, his advanced metrics suggest he wasn’t nearly as good as his traditional ERA indicates. His 3.10 FIP is still excellent, but that ranked just sixth among qualified starters. He was also significantly worse over the second half of the season, and he pitched worse on the road than he did at home in Dodger Stadium.
Ryu also has a brutal matchup today vs. the Nationals. They ranked seventh in wRC+ vs. left-handers this season, and their projected lineup has posted a .337 wOBA vs. southpaws over the past 12 months. The Nats also posted the fifth-lowest strikeout rate vs. left-handers this season.
The biggest factor working in Ryu’s favor is his matchup vs. Sanchez. He was originally scheduled to face Max Scherzer, but the Nationals have decided to push his start back to Game 4. Scherzer came out of the bullpen yesterday and threw a scoreless inning, so they’re opting to give him an extra day of rest.
Given that change, it’s not surprising that Ryu has jumped from a +105 underdog to a -124 favorite. His opponent implied team total of 4.1 runs is also the lowest mark on the slate.
Ryu still carries plenty of risk in this matchup, but his Vegas data definitely puts him in play in all formats.
The toughest thing to find on this slate is strikeout upside. None of the four starters have posted a K/9 above 8.09 over the past 12 months. With that in mind, Soroka gets a nice bump in value given his matchup vs. the St. Louis Cardinals. Their projected lineup has posted a 27.9% strikeout rate vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate.
Soroka is also a slight -113 favorite despite pitching on the road, and his opponent implied team total of 4.2 runs trails only Ryu’s. He’s arguably the best pitcher on a per-dollar basis on today’s slate, particularly on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 94%.
Wainwright will be opposing Soroka in St. Louis, and he’s been incredibly efficient when pitching at home this season. He’s posted a 2.56 ERA over 95.0 innings compared to a 6.22 ERA when pitching on the road.
With that in mind, Wainwright is worth some consideration. The Braves are a difficult matchup — they rank ninth in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season — but basically all of the remaining playoff teams have good offenses. Wainwright is also expected to carry one of the lower ownerships at pitcher, which increases his appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Sanchez is the toughest pitcher to make a case for. The Dodgers have been one of the best teams in the league vs. right-handers, ranking second in wRC+ and first in ISO. Sanchez has also pitched to a 5.10 FIP while striking out an average of 7.27 batters per nine innings. His opponent implied team total of 4.9 runs is the worst mark on the slate.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
- 1. Ronald Acuna (R)
- 2. Ozzie Albies (S)
- 4. Josh Donaldson (R)
- 5. Nick Markakis (L)
- 7. Brian McCann (L)
Total Salary: $21,200
No offense really stands out as a must-play today. The Dodgers lead the slate in implied team total, but the other three teams each own an implied team total between 4.2 and 4.4 runs.
If you are looking to target the Braves, consider going with a lefty-heavy approach. Wainwright has been far worse against left-handed batters than righties this season, allowing them to post a .368 wOBA.
Markakis is one left-handed batter in particular who stands out. He’s very affordable at just $3,600, and he posted a 112 wRC+ vs. right-handers this season. He also enters this contest in strong recent form, exceeding his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
One way to stack the Braves in a more contrarian manner is by excluding Freddie Freeman. He obviously fits the narrative of attacking Wainwright with lefties, but his Statcast data from the past 15 days is dreadful. He’s posted an average distance of 176 feet and a hard-hit rate of 25%, both of which represent massive decreases compared to his 12 month averages.
On FanDuel, the top four-man stack belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 2. Justin Turner (R)
- 5. Max Muncy (L)
- 6. Corey Seager (L)
Total Salary: $13,300
The Dodgers figure to be the most popular team target on the slate, but stacking them in the above 1-2-5-6 manner shouldn’t command massive ownership. Excluding Cody Bellinger in particular should help with ownership, since he’ll likely be one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
Pederson leads the slate with 10 Pro Trends; no other batter has more than seven. He’s crushed right-handed pitching over the past 12 months, posting a .377 wOBA and .309 ISO, and he’s expected to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup. His Statcast data from the past 15 days is also excellent: 277-foot average distance, 98 mile per hour exit velocity, 56% hard-hit rate. He’s one of the top hitting options on the slate.
Other Batters
Dexter Fowler continues to represent one of the best pure values on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $3,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 91%, and his spot as the leadoff hitter gives him a ton of fantasy value. He hasn’t exactly crushed during the postseason — he’s gone just 1-8 with a walk — but he has made solid contact over the past 15 days. His Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +21 suggests better results should be headed his way in the future.
Targeting the Nats against Ryu will likely be the most contrarian strategy today, but they can do some damage against left-handers. Anthony Rendon in particular stands out given his 189 wRC+ vs. southpaws at home this season. His $4,600 salary on DraftKings also comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Braves OF Nick Markakis (22)
Photo credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
