Wednesday features another large main slate in Major League baseball action. The 10-game offering locks at 7:05 p.m. ET on the card.
Pitchers
A strong showing atop FanDuel’s pricing:
- Shohei Ohtani (R) $10,500, LAA @ DET
- Jack Flaherty (R) $10,100, STL vs MIL
- Freddy Peralta (R) $9,800, MIL @ STL
- Lance Lynn (R) $9,500, CHW vs OAK
- Charlie Morton (R) $9,200, ATL @ MIA
Shohei Ohtani, the American League MVP favorite, has allowed four earned runs and four walks in 25 innings over the past month. Three of those walks and two of the earned runs came in his last outing. Detroit has the third-worst home offense against right-handed pitching, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) and should struggle against the hard-throwing Ohtani. He is a better value on DraftKings, according to the Bales Model, where he’s priced as the sixth-best pitcher, but has the third best projections.
Jack Flaherty as the SP2 on FanDuel based on pricing is not ideal. He has been excellent in his return from injury but faces one of the best road teams in MLB. The Milwaukee Brewers are 24-13 as road favorites this season and are favored against Flaherty. He has the lowest Projected Plus/Minus among high-priced options and will have a difficult time retaining value unless he gets a win with a quality start. I feel good about Flaherty logging a QS, but the win is far from a guarantee considering the pitcher his offense is facing in this matchup.
I would have zero issue with Freddy Peralta as the most expensive pitcher. Since he’s not on FanDuel, I will take him at value. He is the second-rated pitcher on FanDuel and DraftKings, plus he gets to face an offense that reached base four times against Corbin Burnes in Tuesday’s game. Peralta leads all projected starters in Floor, Median and Ceiling projections.
The big boy — Lance Lynn — is coming off one of his worst starts of 2021 at the Field of Dreams game. The four runs he allowed were the most since June 19 against the Houston Astros. I have zero issue throwing that game away, considering the uniqueness and circumstances. Other things are in play between the White Sox and Athletics, as both teams play after the news that Chris Bassitt appeared to avoid catastrophic injury during Tuesday’s game. I hope the A’s are in a better headspace for this contest, because if not, Lynn will blow them away. Lynn is one of the better bets to pitch deep into a game, which is an added boost for his points floor.
The second half bounce back for Charlie Morton is one of many reasons the Atlanta Braves are in first place. It also helps facing a bad offense like Miami’s. Only Peralta has a higher projection than Morton and is the only pitcher rated better than the Brewers’s starter. The Braves are 1.6-run favorites over the Marlins, third-best on the slate.
Value
The lower-priced options are a tire fire. Three of the five cheapest options are openers and five pitchers have matchups against top-ranked offenses. I do not recommend any options below $8,000.
Fastballs
Marco Gonzales has allowed one home run in 89 at-bats to current Texas Rangers hitters.
Start Andrew Heaney at your own risk. He has allowed 20 earned runs and nine home runs over his last five starts. He faces the Red Sox in Boston, where they have a top 10 slugging percentage against lefties at home.
Lance Lynn is tied with Mitch White for the most Pro Trends. White might not pitch long enough to qualify for a win.
Notable Stack
West coast is the best coast for FanDuel’s top stack via the Los Angels Dodgers:
- Cody Bellinger (L)
- Max Muncy (L)
- Justin Turner (R)
- Trea Turner (R)
Total Salary: $15,400
The Dodgers have a projected team total of 5.5 runs against JT Brubaker and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Brubaker has a 6.05 road ERA and is allowing a slash line of .259/.329/.496.
Other Hitters
Xander Bogaerts has a 1.462 OPS against Heaney.
Josh Harrison has 10 hits against Lance Lynn — five for extra bases — and two have left the park.
Nolan Arenado has been on a heater, but has struggled against Freddy Peralta. He’s hitting .200 (one home run) with three strikeouts in 10 at-bats.
J.P. Crawford is the top-rated hitter on FanDuel and third on DraftKings. He has three home runs in 19 at-bats against Mike Foltynewicz.
