Saturday’s main slate features eight games starting at 7:05 pm ET. We will be using Bales Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
Pitchers
The four pitchers projected to score the most fantasy points today are:
- Corbin Burnes (R)
- Yu Darvish (R)
- Aaron Nola (R)
- Lance Lynn (R)
Corbin Burnes has been electric in 2021.
In 152 innings, he has a 2.25 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 10-4 record and 210 strikeouts. His ERA is good for second best in all of baseball, while his strikeouts rank sixth.
Burnes is having a career season and as a Brewers fan, it is a delight to watch. In Burnes’ last start, he and Josh Hader combined for the second no-hitter in franchise history, completely dominating the Cleveland Indians. Over his eight innings, Burnes allowed only one baserunner on a walk while striking out 14.
It will be hard to replicate this performance, but he does have another favorable matchup today. Burnes will face the Cubs, who are projected for the lowest implied runs total on the slate (2.8 runs). Chicago is in full rebuilding mode, having lost seven of their last 10 games. The Brewers have opened up a 12 1/2-game lead in the National League Central and don’t seem interested in slowing down anytime soon.
Coming off his worst performance of the season, Yu Darvish is looking to rebound against the Cardinals. In his last start, Darvish threw four innings and allowed eight earned runs (four home runs) on six hits.
A projected wind blowing in from right-center field should help Darvish on Saturday night, but the Cardinals have some solid power hitters throughout their lineup. If Darvish is not on top of his game against, would not be surprised to see a home run or two from players like Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill.
Aaron Nola has been consistent this season.
In 163 innings, he has a 4.58 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 202 strikeouts and a 7-8 record. A positive consistency in Nola’s game is his high strikeout rate, which is at 10.559 per nine innings. He has five or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight outings, reaching double-digits twice.
A negative consistency is that he has allowed two or more runs against in eight of his last nine starts. Hoping to remain consistent in more of a positive manner, Nola will be on the hill against division-rival Mets. Earlier this season, Nola threw 5 1/3 scoreless innings against them, allowing only three base-runners while striking out 12.
Nola is considered a 95% bargain by Pro Trends and rates highly on Bales Model.
Lance Lynn is coming off a great outing that saw him allow just two hits over five innings while striking out nine. On Saturday, Lynn gets to pitch against his former club in the Rangers, which should give him even more of a reason to pitch well. Although the Rangers rank 18th in MLB with 1,264 team strikeouts, His high K/9 of 10.03 suggests this will be a great spot to have Lynn in your lineups.
Two more reasons to back Lynn are that the Rangers are projected for an implied runs total of only 3.4 tonight, and they have the lowest team value rating on the slate (31).
Value
An extremely strong value play today is Giants left-hander Alex Wood. Bales Model rates Wood as a top four pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel main slate tonight.
After being activated for the COVID-19 injured list, Wood is ready to pitch for the first time since late August. His 10-4 record is impressive, but that has depended on lots of run support. Wood will be pitching against the Atlanta Braves tonight who are making a cross-country journey. The home teams always have a major advantage when visitors are traveling extreme distances.
Another reason Wood is a strong play today is due to the Braves recent batting struggles. In their last three games, the Braves have only scored 11 runs while striking out 34 times.
Hitters
Notable Stack
Today’s top projected points stack comes to you from the -234 Houston Astros:
- Alex Bregman (R)
- Yordan Alvarez (L)
- Carlos Correa (R)
- Yulieski Gurriel (R)
The Astros are projected for the second highest implied runs total on the slate today (5.6 runs). On FanDuel, this stack will cost you $15.4k in salary and are projected for a combined 50.9 fantasy points.
Through 147 games played, the Astros have scored the second most runs in baseball (785), trailing only the Tampa Bay Rays. In their last three games, the Astros have scored a total of 23 runs including six home runs. Jose Altuve is their leadoff man and has scored four runs in thanks to the great batting behind him.
Other Hitters
One of the highest rated batters on Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel today is Yoan Moncada. Moncada is currently on a six-game hitting streak in which he has four extra base hits. Tonight, the White Sox are taking on the Rangers and are projected for the highest implied runs total on the slate (5.6 runs).
Value
Lastly, here is a handful of batters to consider while completing your lineups today that are projected for a high fantasy points/salary:
- Khris Davis
- Austin Slater
- Darin Ruf
- Jonah Heim
- Ty France
Photo credit: Jason Miller/Getty Images
Pictured above: Corbin Burnes
