The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate. There’s a four-game early slate starting at 3:07 p.m. ET and an eight-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Two pitchers on today’s slates are priced above $10,000 on FanDuel:
- Justin Verlander (R) $11,400, HOU @ LAA
- Patrick Corbin (L) $10,500, WSH vs. CLE
The Astros officially clinched the best record in baseball with their win last night, so they will own home field advantage throughout the postseason. That means they can use these final two games solely as preparation. Verlander has pitched shortened starts in each of his past two outings — he has an average pitch count of just 89 over that time frame — so he’ll likely get the same treatment today.
Still, Verlander has the potential to rack up a bunch of fantasy points in a short period of time. He’s pitched to a K/9 of 11.94 this season, and he has an appealing matchup vs. the Los Angeles Angels. Their projected lineup is not very intimidating without Mike Trout, boasting a .306 wOBA and 23.6% strikeout vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. There is currently no Vegas data available for this game, but expect Verlander to own one of the lowest opponent implied team totals on the slate.
The Nationals have officially clinched their spot in the postseason, and they’ll be facing either the St. Louis Cardinals or Milwaukee Brewers. That said, they need one more win to ensure that game will be played in Washington.
They’ll turn to Corbin today vs. the Cleveland Indians to try to lock that up. The Nationals have already stated that Max Scherzer will pitch in the Wild Card game, and Stephen Strasburg will likely get the ball in Game 1 of the NLDS should they win that contest. That means the earliest that Corbin could potentially pitch in the postseason is Game 2 of the NLDS, which isn’t slated to take place until next Friday.
With that in mind, Corbin doesn’t face the same pitch count concerns that Verlander does. The Indians were eliminated from postseason consideration yesterday, so this matchup could be a bit easier than expected as well. Guys like Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana may get the night off with their season officially over.
Corbin provides a nice combination of strikeout upside and batted ball profile in this matchup. He’s posted a K/9 of 10.47 this season, and his Statcast data from his past two starts is elite. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 162 feet and hard hit rate of 21%, both of which represent massive decreases when compared to his 12-month averages. Historically, pitchers with comparable strikeout ability and Statcast differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.47 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Corbin is only available on the early slate, but he makes for a strong option.
Values
Steven Matz is coming off a disappointing performance in his last outing, allowing six earned runs over five innings vs. the Miami Marlins. Still, he’s put together an excellent second half, and he’s been dominant when pitching at home. He’s posted a 2.47 ERA over 83.2 innings at Citi Field, and he’s also averaged nearly 1.5 additional strikeouts at home vs. on the road.
Matz is taking on a Braves’ projected lineup that has been pretty mediocre against left-handers over the past 12 months. They’ve posted a .296 wOBA and 30.5% strikeout rate, both of which are among the worst splits-adjusted marks on the slate.
He also owns solid Statcast marks over his past two starts, outperforming his 12-month marks in average distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate. He’s one of the stronger values on a pretty weak pitching slate.
Gio Gonzalez is pitching in Coors Field, which obviously makes him a risky fantasy option. That said, there is a bunch to like about him on today’s slate.
For starters, he’s one of the few pitchers who is actually pitching for something. The Brewers are just one game back in the NL Central, and winning the division means they avoid the dreaded Wild Card showdown vs. Scherzer.
The Rockies are also a decent matchup. Their offensive numbers can get inflated due to Coors Field, but they rank merely 22nd in wRC+ vs. southpaws this season. They also have the fifth-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers, which is a nice combination for fantasy.
Finally, Gonzalez has posted excellent Statcast marks from his past two starts. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 165 feet and hard hit rate of 13%, both of which represent massive decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Gonzalez probably wont pitch very deep in this contest — his last start came on came on 9/12 — but he has the potential to return value if he can approach five innings.
Fastballs
Mike Foltynewicz: It’s been a bit of a lost season for Folty, but he’s turned things around recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four starts on DraftKings, and he’s allowed just two earned runs over his past 26 innings. His Statcast data from his past two starts is also excellent resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -19 feet and hard hit differential of -21 percentage points.
Robbie Ray: He’s always in play for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) given his elite strikeout upside. He’s posted a K/9 of 12.17 over the past 12 months, and he’s in an awesome spot vs. the San Diego Padres. Their projected lineup owns a 35.3% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months.
Zach Eflin: He’s one of the best pure values on DraftKings, where his $6,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He also owns an excellent matchup vs. the Miami Marlins, who rank 29th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
- 1. Cesar Hernandez (S)
- 2. Scott Kingery (R)
- 3. Bryce Harper (L)
- 4. Rhys Hoskins (R)
- 6. Andrew Knapp (S)
Total Salary: $19,900
The Phillies are currently implied for 5.2 runs, which ranks third on the early slate. That said, they’re arguably the best value on DraftKings. Their top stack costs just $19,900 — less than $4,000 per player! — and their Team Value Rating of 81 ranks first on DraftKings.
They’re taking on Marlins left-hander Caleb Smith, who has had an up-and-down season. He’s pitched to a 10.00 K/9, but he’s still struggled to a 4.92 FIP. He’s also been worse over the second half of the year, pitching to a 5.84 xFIP.
Smith has been at his worst against right-handers, which bodes well for Hoskins. He’s posted a .424 wOBA and .277 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months, and he’s outperformed his 12-month averages in distance, hard hit rate, and exit velocity over the past 15 days.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the New York Yankees:
- 1. D.J. LeMahieu (R)
- 2. Aaron Judge (R)
- 4. Giancarlo Stanton (R)
- 6. Giovanny Urshella (R)
Total Salary: $15,400
The Yankees are locked into the No. 2 seed in the AL, so there is some risk with them on today’s slate. It’s entirely possible that they could pull some of their starters after just a couple of at bats.
Still, they’re hard to ignore on the main slate. They own an implied team total of 7.0 runs, which trails only the Brewers’ mark of 7.4 at Coors Field. They’re taking on Rangers right-hander Luke Farrell, who has pitched to a 5.34 FIP through 11.1 MLB innings this season. The Yankees have raked against right-handers over the second half of the year, ranking fourth in wRC+ and third in ISO.
Among the stacked batters, Judge enters this contest in the best recent form. He’s posted an average distance of 268 feet, exit velocity of 100 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 56% over his past eight games, all of which represent increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Other Batters
Josh VanMeter stands out if you’re looking for a value option on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $2,700 and is expected to occupy the leadoff spot in the Reds’ lineup. He’s also made excellent contact recently, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +27 feet, and leadoff hitters with comparable salaries and recent Statcast data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.85 on FanDuel.
Jake Lamb is another potential value option on the main slate. He’s priced at just $2,800 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 94%. He’s crushed the ball over the past 11 days — he owns a ridiculous hard hit rate of 88% — and he leads all batters with 12 Pro Trends.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Yankees OF Aaron Judge (99)
Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
