Game 4 of the World Series will occur on Saturday at 8:07 p.m. ET, with a pitching matchup between Patrick Corbin and Jose Urquidy
The single-game DFS format will take center stage in the World Series. Let’s start by taking a brief look at the different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Format
FanDuel will use its traditional single-game format. That means you’ll have to roster one MVP, one All-Star, and three utilities. Your MVP will get a 2x scoring bonus, while your All-Star will get a 1.5x scoring bonus. You don’t need to pay additional salary to roster players in those premium spots.
FanDuel also features only hitters. You won’t have to worry about choosing between any of the pitchers on either roster and can focus simply on which batters you think will score the most fantasy points.
The DraftKings format is a little more complicated — you have to roster six players instead of five, and you’ll have to choose between batters and pitchers. DraftKings also features a captain, who earns a 1.5x scoring multiplier but will cost 1.5x their traditional salary.
Pitchers
Relief pitchers are not available on either site for Saturday night.
Patrick Corbin is the highest-rated player in our MLB Models with the best-projected Plus/Minus (projected points minus salary-based expected points) and ceiling rating (32.3 points) on the DraftKings slate.
Corbin has averaged 18.5 PPG over the past year, 5.2 PPG higher than the next closest player on this slate, and ranked 16th among qualified starters with a 28.5% strikeout rate (10.6 K/9). However, he primarily excels against left-handed hitting, and the Astros mostly right-handed lineup posted a historically excellent 131 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season.
Most lineups will include Corbin, but his cost ($10,400), which is cheaper than two batters, is also extremely reasonable.
Jose Urquidy is $2600 cheaper than Corbin on DraftKings and has averaged 12.3 PPG this year. The righty has recorded fantasy efforts of 34.6 points, 28.1 points, 19.9 points, and 19.1 points in various outings this season, and is certainly worth including in a tournament lineup.
He owns a positive pitch value on all of his offerings and displayed a velocity uptick this year following Tommy John Surgery. Still, the Astros could pull Urquidy for a variety of reasons — if he struggles, once he faces the Nationals lineup twice regardless of performance, or if they need a pinch hitter with his spot due up in the order.
Urquidy is a high risk, high reward play.
Batters
Astros Projected Lineup
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. Michael Brantley (L)
- 4. Alex Bregman (R)
- 5. Yuli Gurriel (R)
- 6. Carlos Correa (R)
- 7. Martin Maldonado (R)
- 8. Jake Marisnick (R)
- 9. Jose Urquidy (R)
George Springer retains the highest ceiling and floor projections among Astros batters in our MLB Models for Game 4. He has a career 149 wrC+ against left-handed pitching (127 wRC+ vs. RHP) and is 4-for-6 with a homer against Corbin.
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: George Springer
Michael Brantley (103 wRC+ against LHP) is once again the highest-rated batter on the slate, seeing a price drop of $400 from Games 2 and 3. He has hits in nine of his past 10 games, with five multi-hit games, and remains underrated as the Astros No. 3 hitter.
Jake Marisnick (career 90 wRC+ vs. LHP, 73 wRC+ vs. RHP) seems set to start against Corbin, though he should be replaced by a left-handed bat (Josh Reddick, Kyle Tucker, or Yordan Alvarez) in the later innings. Marnisnick is 4-for-5 against Corbin and offers a mix of power and speed (15 HR, 15 SB pace per 500 at-bats).
Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman have the Astros second and third highest batter ceiling projections for Game 4. Altuve has killed it in the playoffs (.362 average, 1.137 OPS) while Bregman has struggled (.208 average, .763 OPS). But Bregman posted the third-best wRC+ (205) against southpaws this year while Altuve ranked 16th (176) – and Bregman is $400 cheaper on DraftKings. This is the spot to use him after posting a couple of ugly games on both sides of the ball.
Carlos Correa is 9-for-54 (.166 average) in the playoffs after playing just three games in September (and 75 on the season) due to various ailments. But he posted a 160 wRC+ against lefties, and this is the spot to use him if you think he’s healthy.
Robinson Chirinos owns the highest line-drive rate (25%) on the slate and posted a 148 wRC+ against left-handers.
Nationals Projected Lineup
- 1. Trea Turner (R)
- 2. Adam Eaton (L)
- 3. Anthony Rendon (R)
- 4. Juan Soto (L)
- 5. Howie Kendrick (R)
- 6. Ryan Zimmermann (R)
- 7. Victor Robles (L)
- 8. Yan Gomes (R)
- 9. Patrick Corbin (L)
Anthony Rendon ($11,000) and Juan Soto ($10,800) are priced beyond reason on DraftKings, as each costs more to roster than Patrick Corbin. They rank second and third in PPG over the past month, behind Altuve (16.5 PPG), and will face a variety of pitchers throughout the night.
Trea Turner retains the highest ceiling and floor ratings among the Nationals position players, but he is also priced above Springer, who has much better splits in his favor.
Adam Eaton will continue to get the splits in his favor in this series (119 WRC+ against RHP), but his price is up to $1,600 on DraftKings compared to Friday, sucking out most of the value from using him.
Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Adam Eaton
Yan Gomes posted a .216 expected batting average, in the bottom 3% among all hitters.
Victor Robles has averaged 10.3 PPG over the past month, but his batted ball data remains discouraging; with an average exit velocity (81 mph) and hard-hit rate (23%) that were amongst the worst in baseball.
Robles, Ryan Zimmermann, and Howie Kendrick are the three lowest-rated players on this slate in our MLB Models and are not players that I will consider including in my lineups.
Pictured Above: Michael Brantley
Photo Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
