The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate. There’s a four-game early slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET and an 11-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is loaded with big-name pitchers. Five of them have a salary of at least $10,100 on FanDuel:
- Patrick Corbin (L) $10,800, WSH @ PHI
- Chris Sale (L) $10,700, BOS vs. LAD
- Trevor Bauer (R) $10,500, CLE vs. MIN
- Aaron Nola (R) $10,300, PHI vs. WSH
- Matt Boyd (L) $10,100, DET @ KC
Corbin and Nola are squaring off against each other in Philadelphia, which decreases the appeal of both pitchers. Nola is a slight -112 favorite, giving him a slight edge in opponent implied team total (4.2 vs. 4.4).
Both pitchers also enter this contest in subpar recent form. Corbin has allowed his past two opponents to post a hard hit rate of 53%, while Nola has posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +12 feet.
The one area where Corbin has a clear edge is strikeout data. The Phillies’ projected lineup has posted a 27.1% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months, and Corbin has posted a K/9 of 10.46 over the same time frame. His resulting K Prediction of 7.9 ranks third on the slate. That makes him an interesting target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), especially at likely reduced ownership.
It’s hard to argue against Sale as the top pitching option. He’s been up-and-down this season, but he’s still been more good than bad. His 3.12 xFIP ranks fifth in the league, while his 12.87 K/9 ranks second.
He has a brutal matchup today vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have been one of the best offensive teams in baseball this season. That said, they have been less potent against southpaws, ranking just seventh in wRC+ and 12th in ISO. They’re currently implied for 4.0 runs, which is tied for the second-lowest mark on the slate.
Where Sale really makes his money is with his strikeout ability, and no pitcher on today’s slate can match him in that department. His K Prediction of 9.3 ranks first on the slate by a significant margin, and pitchers with comparable marks have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.88 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Sale has some downside in this matchup, but he also has considerable upside.
Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chris Sale
Bauer is in a similar spot to Sale today, with a couple of key differences. He’s taking on the Minnesota Twins, who rank first in the league in runs per game. They’re currently implied for 4.0 runs – the same exact mark as the Dodgers against Sale – and Bauer is a moderate -135 favorite.
Unfortunately, Bauer doesn’t appear to have the same strikeout upside as Sale. The Twins own the fifth-lowest strikeout rate against southpaws this season, and Bauer has posted a K/9 of just 10.16 through his first 20 starts. That’s more than a full strikeout less than his mark from last season (11.34), and his K Prediction of 7.3 is merely tied for seventh on today’s slate.
Bauer has also been hit hard over his past two starts. He’s allowed opposing batters to post an average distance of 220 feet and hard hit rate of 43%, both of which represent increases when compared to his 12-month averages. He seems like an option to avoid in all formats.
Boyd has been an interesting fantasy pitcher recently. He’s allowed at least three earned runs in each of his past six starts, including at least four in each of his past four. But he’s also been piling up strikeouts: 24 over his past 12.1 innings.
He’s in an average spot today vs. the Kansas City Royals. They’re currently implied for 4.5 runs, and they’ve posted the 11th-highest strikeout rate against southpaws this season.
Boyd is a particularly appealing value on FanDuel, where his $10,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Values
Jon Lester looks like one of the strongest options on the early slate, particularly on FanDuel with a Bargain Rating of 94%. There’s currently no total on the game – the weather conditions at Wrigley will ultimately dictate that – but Lester is a solid -179 favorite. He has a nice matchup vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates, who rank just 28th in wRC+ against left-handers this season.
Lester has also limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 197 feet, which represents a decrease of -13 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable distance differentials and moneyline odds have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.83 on FanDuel.
Noah Syndergaard owns arguably the best matchup of the day vs. the Miami Marlins. They rank dead last in runs per game this season, and their projected lineup has posted a .275 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months. They’re currently implied for just 3.5 runs, which is the lowest mark on the slate by a significant margin.
Right-handers have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.97 on DraftKings when facing the Marlins this season, and Syndergaard has averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.40 in nine career starts vs. Miami. He’s an excellent value on DraftKings at just $8,100.
Fastballs
Zach Davies: He’s dirt-cheap at $5,400 on DraftKings and has an elite matchup vs. the San Francisco Giants. Their projected lineup has posted a .264 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the lowest splits-adjusted mark on the slate.
Julio Teheran: He has massive strikeout upside against the San Diego Padres, whose projected lineup has posted a 32.0% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. His K Prediction of 8.1 trails only Sale’s, and his $6,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Brendan McKay: He’s a big-time pitching prospect and has an excellent matchup vs. the Baltimore Orioles. He’s particularly appealing on FanDuel, where his $7,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Noah Syndergaard
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack per the Bales Model belongs to the New York Yankees:
- 1. D.J. LeMahieu (R)
- 2. Aaron Judge (R)
- 3. Aaron Hicks (S)
- 5. Didi Gregorius (L)
Total Salary: $15,800
The Yankees figure to be extremely chalky on the early slate. They’re currently implied for a massive 7.3 runs, so stacking the top of their lineup will require you to get creative with the rest of your selections.
The Yankees are taking on Blue Jays left-hander Clayton Richard, who has been an absolute disaster this season. He’s pitched to a 6.23 ERA and 6.38 FIP while striking out just 4.36 batters per nine innings.
Richard has struggled in particular against right-handed batters, allowing them to post a .406 wOBA and club an average of 2.08 HRs per nine innings. That bodes well for someone like Judge, who has been a lefty killer over the past 12 months. He’s posted a .455 wOBA and .271 ISO, along with a dominant 259 wRC+ vs. southpaws at home this season. He also enters this contest in elite recent form, outperforming his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate over the past 15 days.
On the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- 1. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 2. Trevor Story (R)
- 3. David Dahl (L)
- 4. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 5. Daniel Murphy (L)
Total Salary: $24,400
The Rockies are playing at home in Coors Field, increasing their appeal on today’s slate. They’re currently implied for 7.4 runs against the Cincinnati Reds, which actually makes their respective salaries pretty reasonable. They lead the slate with a Team Value Rating of 92 on DraftKings.
They’re taking on Reds right-hander Tanner Roark, who has actually pitched pretty well this season. That said, he’s allowed left-handed batters to post a .388 wOBA, and nine of the 10 HRs he’s allowed have come against left-handed batters.
Blackmon will hope to continue his torrid play following the All-Star break. He’s posted a .460 wOBA and 173 wRC+ after June 1, and those numbers jump to .625 and 266 at Coors Field. Blackmon has also historically dominated when facing a right-handed pitcher a home, averaging a Plus/Minus of +3.29 on DraftKings. He’s one of the most expensive batters on the slate at $5,500, but he’s well worth that salary in this matchup.
Other Batters
The Rockies are the obvious Coors target, but don’t forget about the Reds. They’re currently implied for 6.7 runs, and the projected leadoff batter Nick Senzel looks like a particularly strong target. Historically, leadoff batters with a comparable salary have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.92 when playing at Coors. Senzel will also be on the positive side of his batting splits vs. Kyle Freeland, and Senzel has posted a .391 wOBA and .235 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months.
Yasmani Grandal continues to occupy the leadoff spot for the Milwaukee Brewers, which makes him a bit of an anomaly at the catcher position. He’s also crushed the ball over the past 15 days, posting an average distance of 245 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 56%. Grandal is a switch hitter, but he’s displayed slightly more power against left-handed pitchers, which increases his appeal against Madison Bumgarner.
Kyle Schwarber is one of the best values on the DraftKings’ early slate, where his $3,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. Jordan Lyles, who has allowed left-handed batters to post a .385 wOBA. Schwarber has posted a .234 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months, so he can do some damage in this matchup.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Rockies OF Charlie Blackmon (19)
Photo credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
