Saturday features an eight-game MLB DFS main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:05 pm. ET. I’ll feature my favorite plays of the slate and identify value options using the FantasyLabs tools and models.
Pitchers
Studs
Two pitchers on today’s slate are priced above 9,000 on FanDuel:
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $10,100, LAD vs. SF
- Chris Paddock (R), $9,100, SD vs. ARI
Clayton Kershaw draws a matchup against the division rival San Francisco Giants in his second start of the season. The 32-year-old southpaw was scheduled to face the Giants on opening day, but he was a late scratch due to back tightness. In his eventual 2020 debut against the Diamondbacks, Kershaw was brilliant, striking out six batters across 5.2 scoreless innings. Moreover, Kershaw’s fastball velocity looked good, clocking speeds of 92 to 93 mph. This was a noticeable improvement over his 2019 average fastball speed of 90.3 mph.
Kershaw has an exploitable matchup at home against the San Francisco Giants — a team he has dominated throughout his career. Over his 342.1 career innings against the Giants, Kershaw reports a fantastic 1.74 ERA and 10 scoreless starts.
San Francisco’s projected lineup lacks the power to give Kershaw much trouble (.150 ISO), which increases his probability for a quality start. Furthermore, Los Angeles went to its bullpen early in last night’s game, so manager Dave Roberts may be more inclined to let Kershaw pitch even deeper into this game. I expect around 90 pitches from Kershaw in a strong outing.
The Dodgers come into this game as heavy favorites at -320 (FanDuel Sportsbook) and are projected to score 5.2 runs in contrast to the Giants’ slate-low 2.9 runs (Vegas Odds). Kershaw is the highest-priced and highest-rated pitcher in the Bales Model, which projects him to score 35.55 points against the Giants. Fire up Kershaw in your lineups with confidence.
Chris Paddack takes the mound tonight against the Arizona Diamondbacks. In his last start against the high-powered Dodgers lineup, Paddack looked sharp allowing only three runs and striking out five batters across six innings.
He now faces a much easier task facing the softer-hitting Diamondbacks lineup. Among players listed in Arizona’s projected starting lineup, only Starling Marte and Carson Kelly have a positive projected Plus/Minus for today’s matchup. The rest of the lineup is projected to finish below their projected points total according to the Bales Model.
The Diamondbacks have come out of the gates struggling to hit for power and are ranked among bottom-five teams in isolated power (.106 ISO), home runs, and weighted runs created plus (75 wRC+). Arizona is projected to score only 3.4 runs, which represents the second-lowest implied run total of the slate.
Paddack leads all pitchers with seven Pro Trends in the Bales Model as well as a solid 31.65 projected points for tonight’s match up. Expect Paddack to pitch well as he attempts to notch win number three against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Values
- Jake Odorizzi (R), $8,100 MIN vs. KCR
- Anthony DeSclafani (R), $7,100 CIN vs. MIL
Jake Odorizzi makes his season debut today against the Kansas City Royals.The 30-year-old right-hander is making his way back from a right intercostal strain that he sustained during summer camp workouts. He is expected be on a pitch count around 70-75 pitches against the Royals. Although the pitch count limits his ceiling, his matchup nonetheless presents ample strikeout upside for Odorizzi. The Twins come into this matchup as -160 favorites (FanDuel Sportsbook), so it is likely that he picks up the win bonus. In addition to the solid odds, Odorizzi will look to build upon his 2019 career-best 27.1% strikeout percentage against a Royals lineup that has has struck out in 22.3% of its at-bats this season.
Odorizzi has a 57.1 rating according to the Bales Model with a projected ceiling of 44.5 points and a +2.23 projected Plus/Minus. If he can limit the walks and hits early, there is a path for Odorizzi to return value in his first start back from injury.
Anthony DeSclafani is taking the mound tonight on the road against the Milwaukee Brewers. DeSclafani made his 2020 season debut in his last start against the Detroit Tigers. In his last start, he only threw 64 pitches as he was making his way back from a right shoulder strain. Despite a limited pith count, he looked good and showed no limitations from the injury. DeSciafani threw five scoreless innings while striking out two batters and issuing zero walks. Today DeSclafani is expected to throw around 80 to 85 pitches in his second start of the season against the Brewers.
Although the matchup might not seem ideal, the Brewers of 2020 are a completely different team than their previous high-powered 2019 roster. The big bats of Mike Moustakas and Eric Thames are no longer on the team, and just recently Lorenzo Cain decided to opt out of the 2020 season. Tonight’s projected Brewers lineup has a strikeout rate of 29% against right-handed pitching to start the year. If DeSclafani can work his way around the bat of Christian Yelich, there is an opportunity for him to provide value on a slate where low-cost pitching options are not great.
DeSclafani is the fifth-rated pitcher from the Bales Model with a rating of 53.1. He is listed on FanDuel at a price of only $7,100 making him an interesting value play if you wish to load up on some of the slate’s best hitters.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into your DFS lineups. Today’s top four-man FanDuel stack according to the Bales Model belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
- Mitch Garver (R)
- Jorge Polanco (S)
- Nelson Cruiz (R)
- Eddie Rosario (L)
Total Salary: $12,700
Each of the four players in this stack has a rating of 68 or higher according to the Bales Model, and all four are projected to outscore their respective salaries.
The high-powered Twins line up faces off against left-hander Danny Duffy. In 2019 the Twins absolutely crushed left handed pitching (.236 ISO, .361 wOBA and 126 wRC+), and their lineup is loaded with power hitters. Together, Mitch Garver (.415 ISO) and Nelson Cruiz (.461 ISO) have hit left-handed pitching extremely well throughout their careers.
Additionally, tonight’s weather forecast forecasts wind to blow out to left field at 11 to 12 mph, increasing the chances of a hard-hit fly ball to go over the fence. The Twins are my favorite stack of the entire slate, and they will most likely garner heavy ownership. The Twins are projected to score a slate-high 5.4 runs and are heavy -160 moneyline favorites.
On DraftKings, the top four-man stack belongs to the Seattle MarMariners:
- J.P. Crawford (L) $4,000
- Dylan Moore (R) $3.500
- Kyle Lewis (R) $3,900
- Kyle Seager (L) $4.400
Total Salary: $15,800
The Mariners face off against Ryan Castellani, who is making his first major league start. Castellani posted uninspiring numbers during his minor league starts last year (8.31 ERA and 1.94 WHIP). The Mariners’ implied team total is 4.7 runs in this exploitable match up against the young 24-year old right-hander.
Value Bats
Andrew Benintendi (L) $2500
Andrew Benintendi has struggled out of the gates in the 2020 season, as evidenced by his disappointing batting average (.061), however his long-term statistics suggest that positive regression is coming for the young Red Sox outfielder. Today he has an exploitable match up against Chase Anderson, who is making his first start of the season and is not expected to pitch long into this game.
Austin Nola (R) $2,200
Austin Nola has been crushing the ball lately, reporting a .381 ISO and .488 wOBA over the past week. The Bales Model suggests that Nola’s hot hitting will continue tonight, projecting him for 10.44 FanDuel points. Plug him into your lineups as a solid salary-saving option in all formats.
After reading this article, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs news for injury updates, inactive reports, and lineup changes before the MLB DFS slate kicks off this evening.
