The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s main slate features six games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. A full day of baseball action lies ahead, so let’s find value on the slate.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Justin Verlander ($9,700) Houston Astros (-160) at Seattle Mariners
Justin Verlander again highlights the Saturday slate as the top SP1 option on DraftKings. Making his return to the mound last week against the Los Angeles Angels, Verlander scored 19.75 DraftKings points in a 2-0 loss, throwing five innings, tossing seven strikeouts and allowing three hits.
This week, Verlander looks to have a prime matchup against the Seattle Mariners, where our Tournament Model gives him the highest player rating among pitchers. At 3.4 runs, the Mariners have the lowest implied total on the slate, especially with Verlander likely making easy work of the Seattle lineup – projected for 6.96 strikeouts, which is also the highest on the slate.
If talking about Verlander’s spot wasn’t enough, the matchup also rates as one of the highest Weather Ratings and Park Factor Ratings for pitchers. Despite the likely higher projected ownership, Verlander should be considered as an SP1 option Saturday.
Julio Urias ($9,900) Los Angeles Dodgers (-250) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The most expensive pitcher on the slate, Julio Urias opens as a massive -250 favorite against the Cincinnati Reds. Like Verlander, Urias should have an easy time against the Cincinnati Reds batters, projected for more than six strikeouts against their projected order.
Despite the high projected ownership, Urias should easily pay off his high price tag and projects for a positive Projected Plus/Minus in our model, especially in Dodger Stadium–one of the more pitcher-friendly venues at night.
Per the Trends tool, when Urias is a -250 favorite at home, he has averaged 15.14 actual DraftKings points and a -1.07 Plus/Minus.
The negative rating should not dissuade you from Urias is in a prime matchup.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Taylor Hearn ($6,000) Texas Rangers (+105) vs. Los Angeles Angeles
Texas Rangers pitcher Taylor Hearn projects for the highest Projected Plus/Minus in our models Saturday. Joining the Rangers’ starting rotation full-time last season, Hearn made 11 starts last season, going 6-6 with a 4.66 ERA, 20.2% K rate and a 1.32 WHIP.
Hearn comes with a longer expected pitch count and faces an Angles team with the second-lowest projected wOBA on the slate at 0.199. Globe Life Field has an above-average Park Factor Rating and Hearn is also projected for 5.45 strikeouts, which should easily pay off his lower price tag, providing access to stud pitchers and premium bats.
Toward the bottom-end of the pitching salaries, it looks like there might not be anything worth considering for value and Hearn might be one of the few options to stomach.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Noah Syndergaard ($7,900) Los Angeles Angels (-125) at Texas Rangers
It seems like DraftKings has priced a lot of pitchers in the mid-range Saturday and one option that might be overlooked is Los Angeles Angles pitcher Noah Syndergaard. Thor comes at an ownership discount, compared to Urias and Verlander and projects for the third-highest ceiling, only behind the aforementioned stud arms. A 4.4-run implied total for Texas might cause concern, but I feel Syndergaard could provide value through his strikeout upside, currently projected for 5.46 strikeouts, facing a projected Rangers lineup with the third-highest Strikeout-per-At-Bat average at 0.272.
To me, Syndergaard might be more of a safer GPP play, who can easily match the 85th-percentile outcome of the two higher-priced studs in Urias and Verlander.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by median projection belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- Freddie Freeman (2) ($4,700)
- Max Muncy (4) ($4,000)
- Justin Turner (5) ($3,900)
- Trea Turner (3) ($5,900)
- Mookie Betts (1) ($5,300)
This lineup is almost begging you to play it–even with the exorbitant $23,800 price tag.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings, and because of the higher price tag, you’ll almost be forced to play mid-range arms, which should allow you to get different in finding strikeout upside.
Outside of Coors Field, the Dodgers have the second-highest implied run total on the slate at 5.7 runs. They’ll face off against rookie-sensation Hunter Greene, who while not fully tested, had a decent outing in his debut against the Atlanta Braves, scoring 19.25 DraftKings points in a 6-3 win, striking out seven batters in five innings of work, while allowing four hits.
While the Braves bats are great, the Dodgers bats might be better. The projected Dodgers’ lineup has a 0.349 wOBA and might give the young Reds pitcher trouble in his second big-league outing.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is you can purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
When Coors is on the slate, more often than not, the runs come from Denver. The Rockies are implied for 6.6-runs, which is the highest on the slate, and are projected to face Mark Leiter Jr., who makes his major-league debut Saturday.
Throwing for the Triple-A Affiliate Detroit Tigers last season, Leiter started 15 games, going 8-4 with a 3.34 ERA. The matchup is a tough test for the rookie and with a discount of more than $4,000, the Rockies bats should provide salary relief with home run upside.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Wilson Contreras C ($3,400 DraftKings; $3,800 FanDuel) Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies (Antonio Senzatela)
Although the Rockies bats might get all the love, don’t discount the Chicago Cubs bats, who also have a 5.8 implied run total in Coors. Taking out Dodgers and Rockies bats, Wilson Contreras has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
Contreras should take advantage of the high altitude in Denver and as a power bat, should sit firmly in the three-hole, between Nick Madrigal and Ian Happ. Antonio Senzatela has a propensity for getting blown up, posting a 13.7% K rate and a 3.07 ERA at home. Despite the middling price tag at $3,400 on DraftKings, Contreras has home-run upside, while coming in at reasonable ownership.
Mike Trout OF ($5,700 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel) Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers (Taylor Hearn)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Los Angeles Angeles superstar Mike Trout fits firmly in the discussion Saturday. Trout, who is projected for the highest ceiling, does come at a steep price tag ($5,700 on DraftKings). Compared to Dodgers and Coors’ batters, Trout comes at an ownership discount, facing Taylor Hearn and the Texas Rangers.
The Angels are implied for 4.8-runs, and Trout could be a huge factor in getting batters across the plate. Even better, Trout is projected to hit second, meaning he should have more opportunities at the plate if the Angels are to put up the runs.
Aristides Aquino OF ($2,000 DraftKings; $2,300 FanDuel) Cincinnati vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Luis Urias)
This play might not be the most attractive, but at a minimum-salary price tag of $2,000 on DraftKings, Cincinnati Reds outfielder Aristides Aquino projects as one of the highest Projected Plus/Minus Ratings. If choosing to spend up on stacks and arms, you might need to consider the Cincinnati Reds bats, not because of a contrarian take (though ideal), but because you’re limited to a $50,000 salary cap on DraftKings.
Aquino has the power. Last season in 84 games, Aquino hit .190 with a .408 SLG and .218 ISO, making him a boom-bust candidate for home runs.
