The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate. There’s a three-game early slate starting at 2:20 p.m. ET and an 11-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers on today’s slates own a salary of at least $10,500 on FanDuel:
- Mike Clevinger (R) $11,400, CLE vs. MIN
- Jacob deGrom (R) $10,700, NYM vs. LAD
- Jack Flaherty (R) $10,500, STL vs. MIL
Clevinger is the most expensive pitcher on the main slate, but he has a brutal matchup vs. the Minnesota Twins. They’ve been a juggernaut offensively this season, ranking first in HRs per game. Their projected lineup has been particularly effective against right-handed pitchers, posting a .362 wOBA over the past 12 months.
Clevinger has also been hit hard over his past two starts. He’s allowed opposing batters to post an average distance of 242 feet, which represents an increase of +37 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
There’s obviously a lot of risk with Clevinger in this matchup, but he also has upside. His K Prediction of 9.3 ranks first on the slate. He could be worth some consideration for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), especially given his likely reduced ownership.
deGrom is another pitcher with a difficult matchup. He’s taking on the Los Angeles Dodgers, who rank first in the league in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season. deGrom currently owns an opponent implied team total of 3.6 runs, and he’s only had an opponent implied team total above 3.5 in six previous starts this season.
Unlike Clevinger, deGrom does enter this start in excellent recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 201 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 12%, all of which represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
deGrom also represents the best pure value among the stud pitchers on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 83%.
Flaherty looks like the safest option to pay up for in cash games. He’s taking on the Milwaukee Brewers, and their lineup is a whole let less imposing with Christian Yelich on the IL. Their projected lineup has struggled to a .305 wOBA and 30.6% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Flaherty’s resulting Vegas data is strong. His 3.1 opponent implied team total ranks second on the day, while his -193 moneyline odds rank fifth.
He also combines nice strikeout upside with excellent recent Statcast data. He owns a K Prediction of 7.3 and a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -25 feet, and comparable pitchers have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.73 and a Consistency Rating of 77% on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
He’s an elite option in all formats.
Values
James Paxton headlines the early slate, and he’s tough to avoid on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $9,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%. He’s also pitched incredibly well recently, posting a 1.42 ERA and 12.08 K/9 over his past four starts.
Paxton takes the mound in a strong spot vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. Their projected lineup has posted a .312 wOBA and 27.8% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months, and they’re implied for a slate-low 3.6 runs. Paxton also benefits from the Yankees juggernaut offense. They’re currently implied for 6.0 runs, resulting in -256 moneyline odds.
Kyle Hendricks isn’t the sexiest DFS option given his pedestrian strikeout rate, but he’s usually reliable. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his past 13 starts, including each of his past two.
Unsurprisingly, his Statcast data from his past two starts is strong. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of just 192 feet, which represents a decrease of -15 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
He owns a solid matchup today vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates. Their projected lineup has posted a .309 wOBA and 28.6% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. There’s currently no over/under set for this game, but expect Hendricks to check in with one of the lower marks on the slate.
Dylan Cease has struggled this season, pitching to a 6.53 ERA, but he’s an interesting option today vs. the Seattle Mariners. They’ve struggled offensively over the second half of the season, and their projected lineup has posted a .286 wOBA and 24.6% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Despite his struggles, Cease has also been an excellent strikeout pitcher this season. He’s posted a K/9 of 9.87, so he has decent upside in this matchup.
His Statcast data from his past two starts is also excellent. He’s posted an average distance of 160 feet, which represents a decrease of -50 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He’s very affordable at just $6,200 on DraftKings, which makes him a nice option at SP2 for GPPs.
Fastballs
Madison Bumgarner: He leads the slate with a 3.0 opponent implied team total, and his -215 moneyline odds rank second on the main slate. He’s also priced at just $8,900 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Zack Greinke: Pitching for the Astros certainly has its benefits. He leads the slate with -400 moneyline odds, and his salary has decreased by -$1,300 over the past month on DraftKings.
Hyun-jin Ryu: He’s a slight underdog vs. deGrom and the Mets, but he’s still pitched to a 2.45 ERA this season. He’s also one of the better pure values on FanDuel, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
- 1. Ronald Acuna (R)
- 2. Ozzie Albies (S)
- 3. Freddie Freeman (L)
- 4. Josh Donaldson (R)
- 5. Nick Markakis (L)
Total Salary: $23,800
The Braves are currently implied for 5.0 runs, which could make them a bit overlooked on the early slate. The Yankees lead the slate with an implied team total of 6.0 runs, while the Nationals are implied for 5.1 runs in the same matchup.
That said, they have nice upside vs. right-hander Austin Voth. He’s been mediocre this season, pitching to a 4.00 ERA and 4.62 FIP, and he’s been hit particularly hard over his past two starts. Opposing batters have averaged a batted ball distance of 254 feet, which represents an increase of +41 feet when compared to his 12-month average. The Braves were able to hit two HRs off him over just four innings in his last start, but both HRs were solo shots. If they can get a little more traffic on the base paths in this one, they could be looking at a big offensive output.
Acuna stands out as the projected lead-off hitter. He’s blossomed into one of the best hitters in baseball, which is scary considering he’s barely old enough to legally drink. He’s posted a wRC+ of 133 when facing a right-hander on the road this season, and he’s just one HR and four steals away from a 40/40 season. Acuna has also swung the bat well recently, outperforming his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate over the past 15 days.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- 1. Trevor Story (R)
- 2. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 3. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 4. Daniel Murphy (L)
Total Salary: $16,100
The Rockies are playing at home in Coors Field, so they unsurprisingly own one of the highest implied team totals on the slate. They also represent one of the better values on FanDuel, with their Team Value Rating of 88 ranking tied for second.
They’re taking on Padres left-hander Eric Lauer, who has been awful when pitching away from home this season. He’s posted an ERA of 5.94 outside of Petco Park, and Coors Field is obviously one of the worst pitching environments in all of baseball. He has his work cut out for him.
Arenado has teed off on left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .424 wOBA and .269 ISO, and he’s unsurprisingly been even better at Coors. He’s posted a wRC+ of 187 when facing a southpaw at home this season, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +2.36 on FanDuel.
Other Batters
The Padres are a slightly cheap option on FanDuel, and their implied team total of 6.7 ranks first on the slate. They’re taking on right-hander Peter Lambert, who has posted a 7.00 ERA when pitching at Coors this season. Wil Myers in particular stands out as an elite value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%. He also enters this contest in elite recent form, posting a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +44 feet and +15 percentage points.
If you’re looking for a cheaper option, consider Josh VanMeter. He’s expected to bat leadoff at just $3,600 on DraftKings, and he’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly. Historically, comparably priced leadoff hitters have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.52 when playing at Chase Field.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Cardinals SP Jack Flaherty (22)
Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
