The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday offers a split slate. DraftKings features a five-game early slate starting at 2:20 p.m. ET, while FanDuel features a two-game very early slate at 1:10 p.m. ET and a four-game early slate at 4:10 p.m. ET. Both sites are offering a nine-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Two pitchers on today’s slates stand out above the rest on FanDuel:
- Stephen Strasburg (R) $11,200, WSH @ MIA
- Walker Buehler (R) $11,100, LAD vs. COL
No other pitcher is priced above $9,400 on FanDuel, so these two are truly in their own tier.
Let’s start with Strasburg. He’s put together a strong campaign in 2019, posting a 3.49 ERA while striking out an average of 10.79 batters per nine innings. Overall, he’s averaged 40.23 FanDuel points per start, which is the eighth-highest mark among pitchers with at least 20 starts.
He takes the ball in a phenomenal spot vs. the Miami Marlins. They rank 29th in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season, and they’ve also posted the eighth-highest strikeout rate. That’s an excellent combination for fantasy purposes, and right-handers have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.55 on FanDuel when facing the Marlins this season (per the Trends tool).
Unsurprisingly, Strasburg’s Vegas data in this matchup is elite. He leads all pitchers with an opponent implied team total of 3.1 runs, and he’s also a -246 favorite. Strasburg has considerable strikeout upside given his K Prediction of 8.2.
Finally, Strasburg enters this contest is outstanding recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 169 feet, which represents a decrease of 26 feet compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and distance differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.25 on FanDuel.
The only real concern with Strasburg is the weather. The current forecast calls for a 38% chance of precipitation at game time, so you’ll need to monitor the situation before locking him into your lineup.
Buehler was roughed up in his last outing, but he’s still been one of the better pitchers in baseball this season. He’s posted a 2.87 FIP and 10.61 K/9, and he ranks fourth among NL starters in Wins Above Replacement.
His matchup vs. the Rockies isn’t quite as juicy as Strasburg’s, but it’s still really good. The Rockies have not been the same team offensively when playing away from Coors Field. They rank dead last in wRC+ when facing a right-hander on the road this season, and their projected lineup has struggled to a 29.1% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Buehler’s opponent implied team total of 3.2 runs ranks tied for first on the main slate, and his -324 moneyline odds rank second. His K Prediction of 8.2 is also tied for first on the slate, and pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.91 on FanDuel.
He’s the top pitching option on the main slate, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 91%.
Values
Sean Manaea missed most of the season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum in September of last year, but he’s been brilliant since returning to Oakland’s rotation. He’s allowed just one earned run over 18.0 innings, and his 10.50 K/9 would represent a new career-high.
He provides similar Vegas data to Buehler on the main slate at a slightly reduced price tag. He owns a 3.2 opponent implied team total and -324 moneyline odds in an excellent matchup vs. the Texas Rangers. They’ve been dreadful vs. southpaws over the second half of the season, ranking just 28th in wRC+.
That said, there are some concerns with Manaea. For starters, it’s hard to trust that his newfound strikeout upside is legit. He’s posted a K/9 below eight in each of his three previous seasons, so it’s reasonable to expect some regression moving forward.
His recent success also isn’t reflected in his Statcast data. Opposing batters have averaged a batted-ball distance of 225 feet over his past two starts, and his Recent Batted Ball Luck score of -87 suggests he’s been significantly lucky.
He’s definitely still worthy of consideration, but he’s not in the same weight class as Buehler.
James Paxton was acquired by the Yankees in the offseason to serve as their ace, and he’s lived up to that billing recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.38 over his past 10 starts on FanDuel, and he’s pitched to a 1.98 FIP since the beginning of September.
He’s available today only on FanDuel, but he’s in an excellent spot vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. Their projected lineup has posted a 29.0% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months, and Paxton has averaged 11.22 strikeouts per nine innings over the same time frame. His 9.1 K Prediction is the top mark among all of today’s starters.
Fastballs
Jose Berrios: He’s a strong value at just $9,400 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 94%, and he’s in a great spot vs. the Kansas City Royals. He doesn’t possess as much strikeout upside as the stud pitchers, but his -327 moneyline odds make him the largest favorite of the day.
Max Fried: He owns arguably the top matchup of the day vs. the San Francisco Giants, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .265 wOBA and 37.7% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months. There’s currently no Vegas info available, but expect him to own one of the lower implied team totals on the main slate.
Tyler Glasnow: He’s the ultimate wildcard on the early slate. He’s recorded 10 strikeouts over just five innings since returning from injury, but he will likely continued to be limited in some capacity. Still, he has the upside to be fantasy relevant if he can approach five innings.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
- 1. Joey Wendle (L)
- 2. Austin Meadows (L)
- 3. Tommy Pham (L)
- 4. Ji-Man Choi (L)
- 5. Travis d’Arnaud (R)
Total Salary: $23,000
The Rays are currently implied for 5.2 runs, which is the top mark on the DraftKings early slate. They’re taking on Red Sox right-hander Travis Lakins, who has been unimpressive to start his MLB career. He owns a 4.58 ERA and 5.29 xFIP over 19.2 innings while averaging just 6.86 strikeouts per nine innings. The Rays rank seventh in wRC+ against right-handers this season, so they have nice upside in this matchup.
Wendle stands out as the projected leadoff hitter. He’s priced at just $3,500, which is really cheap for a leadoff hitter in a good offense. Historically, leadoff batters with comparable salaries and implied team totals have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.57 on DraftKings.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
- 2. Jorge Polanco (S)
- 3. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 4. Eddie Rosario (L)
- 5. Mitch Garver (R)
Total Salary: $14,900
The Twins are in an elite spot today. They lead all teams with an implied team total of 7.0 runs, which is almost unheard of outside of Coors Field. They’re very reasonably priced considering their implied team total, resulting in a Team Value Rating of 99 on FanDuel. Each of the stacked batters owns a Bargain Rating of at least 61% on FanDuel, headlined by Garver’s mark of 99%.
They’re taking on Royals right-hander Glenn Sparkman, who has been an absolute gas can this season. He’s posted a 6.02 ERA and 6.07 FIP while allowing an average of 2.06 HRs per nine innings. He’s been even worse when pitching on the road, resulting in an 8.57 ERA.
The Twins also enter this contest in excellent recent form. Each of the stacked batters has outperformed his 12-month average distance over the past 15 days, headlined by Rosario’s mark of +26 feet.
The only real downside with the Twins is that they’re tough to pair with Buehler, but no offense can match their upside.
Other Batters
The Indians are taking on a left-handed pitcher this evening, which means it’s safe to fire up Jordan Luplow. He’s quietly been one of the best hitters in baseball against southpaws this season, posting a ridiculous 195 wRC+. He’s expected to occupy the No. 5 spot in the lineup vs. Jason Vargas, and the Indians’ implied team total of 5.7 runs ranks fourth on the slate. Luplow is an elite value on FanDuel, where his $2,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Kevan Smith is a nice source of savings at $3,400 on DraftKings. He also provides more offensive upside than the typical catcher — he’s posted a .416 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months — and he’s been one of the unluckiest batters in baseball over the past 15 days. He owns a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +88, which suggests he’s due for some positive regression moving forward.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Dodgers SP Walker Buehler (21)
Photo Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA Today Sports
