Saturday features a 12-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Note: The PHI vs. TOR, WAS vs. MIA and MIL vs. STL games have all been postponed due to Covid-19 restrictions.
Pitchers
Studs
- Trevor Bauer (R), $11,200 CIN @ DET
- Tyler Glasnow (R), $9,800, TB @ BAL
- Carlos Carrasco (R), $9,400, CLE @ MIN
- Zack Greinke (R), $9,000, HOU @ LAA
Trevor Bauer excelled in his first start of the season, racking up 13 strikeouts over 6.1 innings of one-run baseball against the Detroit Tigers. On Saturday, he gets to try for the repeat against the same Tigers squad that he dominated just five days ago. Bauer had a strong 10.7 K/9 in 2019 and this Detroit Tigers team is currently striking out in 28.2% of their at-bats this season, so the strikeout upside will be there again.
The Reds are also a -186 favorite in this one, suggesting he also has a good chance at a win here as well. He’s the highest rated pitcher in the Bales Model on FanDuel and is a strong play in all formats.
He only lasted just four innings in his season debut against the Atlanta Braves, but Tyler Glasnow proved why he was considered a sharp preseason Cy Young candidate. In just four innings, he allowed one hit, one earned run and recorded nine strikeouts.
He takes on an overperforming Baltimore Orioles team that has averaged 5.8 runs/game thus far, but was one of the worst teams in the league in 2019. Glasnow had an impressive 11.3 K/9 and 2.26 FIP last season in 60 innings, so he has the stuff to dominate this matchup. He threw 72 pitches in his season debut, so he should be good to go for at least 85-90 on Saturday. He’s a risky proposition at his $9.800 salary given the likely pitch count, but has a strong matchup against Baltimore.
Carlos Carrasco was phenomenal in his first start of 2020, notching 10 strikeouts over six innings and allowing just two earned runs. On Saturday, he takes on a dangerous Minnesota Twins lineup that has been crushing the ball of late to the tune of a .350 wOBA.
Carrasco’s 1.80 HR/9 from last season is also concerning given the Twins propensity for the long ball. That said, the strikeout upside is there given they’ve been striking out at a 26.5% clip thus far. Carrasco is a classic risk/reward play at his price; he’ll likely be low owned given the power of the Twins and his price tag, but he has definite upside in GPPs at $9.400 on FanDuel.
Zack Greinke struggled in his season debut, lasting just 3.1 innings while allowing three runs and only striking out two against the Seattle Mariners. On Saturday, he takes on a Los Angeles Angels offense that is currently striking out at a high 27% clip and will be without Mike Trout (paternity leave).
Given Greinke’s relatively low strikeout rate (he recorded just 8.07 K/9 in 2019), though, it’s hard to get excited about him at a $9,000 price tag. He’s also projected to hold 9-12% ownership (third highest on the slate), so proceed with caution.
Values
Kenta Maeda was solid in his Minnesota Twins debut, pitching five innings and giving up two runs, and only four hits while striking out six. He has upside against a Cleveland Indians team that has been striking out 26.8% of the time thus far. In 2019 with the Los Angeles Dodgers, he averaged 9.9 K/9 and had a solid 3.95 FIP. The Indians have struggled over their past three, scoring just three runs in the last 27 innings. He holds strong value at his $7,900 price tag on FanDuel.
Jordan Lyles will make his first start of the season on Saturday against a surging San Francisco Giants team that has averaged 7.7 runs per game over their past three. Lyles did see some work out of the bullpen early in the week, pitching two innings, walking just one and recording two strikeouts against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
It’s unclear what his limitations will be in this one, but he was worked as a starter during the preseason and should be stretched out. It’s tough to get excited here, though, as this Giants team is striking out just 23.3% of the time thus far. That said, he doesn’t need much to pay off his low $6,700 salary on FanDuel.
Fastballs
Masahiro Tanaka makes his first start of the season after a scary line drive to the head knocked him out the preseason early. He’s fully recovered, but he will likely be on a pitch count after only throwing 35-40 pitches in a simulated game last weekend. He should be avoided at his $8,000 price tag given the limitations.
Mitch Keller grades out well in the Bales Model on Saturday against a Chicago Cubs team that has been striking out at a 26.1% clip thus far. His 12.2 K/9 from 2019 was strong over his 48 innings last season, but the Cubs have a powerful offense that has been red hot lately, scoring an average of 7.6 runs over their past five games. While his $6,200 price tag is enticing, this outing could go south quickly.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man on DraftKings (per the Bales Model) belongs to the San Diego Padres:
• 1. Fernando Tatis Jr (R)
• 2. Manny Machado (R)
• 3. Tommy Pham (R)
• 4. Jurickson Profar (S)
• 6. Will Myers (R)
Total Salary: $26,100
Fernando Tatis Jr is the top-rated player in the Bales Model on FanDuel for Saturday. The Padres take on Kyle Freeland at Coors Field in what is expected to be a high scoring game. Tatis Jr. was lights out against lefties in 2019, recording a .510 wOBA and .306 ISO against them in 83 plate appearances. Teammate Manny Machado also grades out very well; in 2019, he also had a strong .441 wOBA and .370 ISO against southpaws.
The Padres will be chalky given they are playing at Coors Field, but it would be wise to have some exposure to this game.
The Tampa Bay Rays also rank highly as a four-man stack on FanDuel (per the Bales Model):
• 1. Yandy Diaz (R)
• 2. Jose Martinez (R)
• 3. Brandon Lowe (L)
• 4. Hunter Renfrow (R)
Total Salary: $11,700
The Tampa Bay Rays take on lefty Wade Leblanc on Saturday. Leblanc is a home run machine, allowing over 2.2 HR/9 in each of the past three seasons. Yandy Diaz is a strong value at $2,700 as the projected leadoff hitter, while the powerful Brandon Lowe will look to take advantage of Leblanc’s home run tendencies. While a limited sample size, Lowe has hit lefties well so far this season, collecting four hits (including a home run) in nine at-bats.
The Rays stack is projected at just 5-8% ownership and is a strong target for GPPs at their collectively low $11,700 salary.
Other Batters
Unsurprisingly, the Rockies hitters also grade out well on Saturday at home at Coors Field. Charlie Blackmon leads the bunch, bringing his .388 wOBA and .274 ISO against left-handed pitching from last season into this one against southpaw Joey Lucchesi. Blackmon’s $3,900 salary on FanDuel has a 92% bargain rating.
Brandon Nimmo is an exceptional value at just $2,600 on FanDuel. Expected to lead off, Nimmo has been crushing right-handed pitching thus far to the tune of a .480 wOBA and .462 BABIP. He’s projected at just 5-8% ownership on FanDuel.
Once again, Tim Anderson registers as a strong play with his $3,100 price tag on FanDuel. He is expected to man the lead off spot against Ronald Bolanos on Saturday in a game where the Chicago White Sox have 5.6 implied runs. Bolanos only threw 19.2 innings in 2019, but found little success. He recorded a 5.25 FIP and allowed a 48.2% hard hit rate. Anderson should be a strong consideration for cash game lineups.
