Saturday features a two-game slate starting at 5:07 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Today’s four starters cover a wide range of prices on FanDuel:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $12,200, HOU vs. TB
- Blake Snell (L) $9,400, TB @ HOU
- Masahiro Tanaka (R) $8,000, NYY vs. MIN
- Randy Dobnak (R) $5,500, MIN @ NYY
It’s hard to argue against Cole on FanDuel or as your SP1 on DraftKings. His floor and ceiling are considerably higher than the rest of today’s starters. He was absolutely dominant during the regular season, pitching to a 2.50 ERA, 2.64 FIP, and 13.82 K/9.
Cole leads the slate in a variety of pitching metrics. He owns a 2.7 opponent implied team total and -298 moneyline odds, both of which is borderline unheard of for the postseason. There is only one previous instance of a pitcher being greater than -275 in the postseason using the Bet Labs database: CC Sabathia vs. the Twins in 2009 (The Yankees won that game 7-2). Pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically dominated during the regular season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.22 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
He also leads the slate with a K Prediction of 10.7, and he enters this contest in strong recent form. He’s limited his previous two opponents to an average distance of 207 feet, exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 22%, all of which represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Just lock him in to your lineups and move on.
The bigger question is who to pair with Cole on DraftKings. It’s hard to make a case for Snell, who is expected to be limited to around five innings today. Snell is an excellent fantasy starter — he’s posted a K/9 of 12.36 over the past 12 months — but it’s hard to envision a scenario where he returns value given his matchup vs. the Astros. Their projected lineup has absolutely slaughtered left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .378 wOBA and 21.2% strikeout rate.
Dobnak is an interesting option. He didn’t make his first appearance with the Twins until 8/9, and he didn’t make his first start until 9/3. He served as an opener in his first three starts, averaging just 1.1 innings per appearance, but he did average 5.1 innings over his final three starts of the season. Overall, Dobnak was impressive over his limited playing time, posting a 1.59 ERA over 28.1 MLB innings.
Still, it’s hard to see him having too much success vs. Yankees. Their offense destroyed right-handers over the second-half of the season, ranking sixth in wRC+ and third in ISO, and they also posted a middling strikeout rate of just 23.7%. They’re currently implied for 5.5 runs, which is the top mark on the slate by a considerable margin.
Dobnak will likely be given a very short leash in this matchup, which makes him a risky GPP option at best.
That leaves Tanaka as the safest option. He’s struggled at times this season, pitching to a 4.45 ERA and 4.27 FIP, but he’s been at his best when pitching at Yankee Stadium. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.14 on DraftKings when pitching at home, including an average Plus/Minus of +2.27 this season.
Tanaka also has the reputation for being a big-game pitcher. He’s posted a career ERA of 1.50 during the postseason, and he’s been particularly dominant in the ALDS. It’s only a two game sample size, but Tanaka has posted a 2-0 record with a 0.75 ERA and 8.3 K/9 during the first round of the playoffs.
The Twins represent a difficult matchup, but Tanaka’s opponent implied team total (4.1) runs and moneyline odds (-175) both rank second on the slate by a comfortable margin. He also enters this contest in solid recent form, posting a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -6 feet and -14 percentage points.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Houston Astros:
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. Michael Brantley (L)
- 4. Alex Bregman (R)
- 5. Yordan Alvarez (L)
Total Salary: $23,000
The Astros are currently implied for 4.9 runs, which trails only the Yankees’ mark on today’s slate. No team in baseball has been better against left-handers this season, ranking first in wRC+, third in ISO, and dead-last in strikeout rate.
The top of their lineup in particular should have major advantages when Snell is on the mound. Altuve, Bregman, and Alvarez all ranked in the top 14 in wRC+ vs. southpaws among batters with at least 100 plate appearances vs. left-handers this season, and Springer wasn’t that far behind at No. 42. Brantley wasn’t quite as good as the rest of his teammates, but his 103 wRC+ still makes him a slightly above average hitter vs. southpaws. He’s also priced at just $3,600, which helps make this Astros’ stack a bit more reasonably priced.
Altuve stands out as an elite option. He went yard yesterday, and he leads all batters with 14 Pro Trends. Historically, batters with a comparable number of Pro Trends have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.64 on DraftKings. His Statcast data from the past 15 days is also ridiculous, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +44 feet and hard hit differential of +12 percentage points.
The only real issue with the Astros is their price tag. Pairing them with Cole and Tanaka leaves an average of just $3,267 for your remaining three lineup spots, so it will be tough to fill those in and still possess a unique lineup.
The Astros also own the top four-man FanDuel stack, so let’s focus on the Yankees instead. Their top stack is actually slightly cheaper than the Astros’ despite their superior implied team total:
- 1. D.J. LeMahieu (R)
- 2. Aaron Judge (R)
- 3. Brett Gardner (L)
- 4. Edwin Encarnacion (R)
Total Salary: $14,900
It’s tough to read to deeply into Dobnak’s performance this season, but he was significantly worse against right-handers than left-handers over his limited innings. Left-handers posted a paltry .183 wOBA against him, while right-handers were much more successful given their .346 wOBA.
That could spell trouble vs. the Yankees, who employ one of the most righty-heavy lineups in baseball. Gardner and Didi Gregorious were the only two lefties in the lineup last night, and they will likely employ a similar lineup today.
Judge reached base three times in five plate appearances yesterday, and his Statcast data continues to be out of this world. He’s posted an average distance of 292 feet, exit velocity of 103 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 69% over the past 15 days, all of which represent huge increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Other Batters
If you’re looking to go super contrarian today, stacking the Rays vs. Cole is an interesting option. Is it the optimal strategy? Of course not. But could it pay off huge if the Rays get to Cole? Absolutely.
Austin Meadows stands out as one of the Rays’ top options. He’s expected to occupy the lead-off spot in the lineup, and he’s fared well against right-handers this season. He’s posted a 152 wRC+, and 24 of his 33 HRs have come against right-handed pitchers.
Giancarlo Stanton could fly a bit under the radar for the Yankees. He hasn’t had the same success as some of his teammates recently, but his Statcast data is still pretty strong. It results in a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +52, which suggests that better results could be coming in the future. His $4,000 salary on DraftKings also comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, making this an excellent buy-low opportunity.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Astros SP Gerrit Cole (45)
Photo credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
