MLB DFS Breakdown (Monday, Sept. 21): Roll With Jacob deGrom

Thursday features an eight-game main slate on DraftKings starting at 6:35 p.m. ET and a six-game main slate on FanDuel starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Pitchers

Tonight’s slate features one pitcher over the $10,000 mark on FanDuel:

Studs

• Jacob deGrom (R), $11,500, NYM vs. TAM

Jacob deGrom has been his normal, dominant self so far in 2020. In fact, he’s been better than normal. His 2.00 FIP and 12.86 K/9 are a career-best, and with a week left in the season, he has put himself squarely in contention for a Cy Young Award. On Monday, he takes on a Tampa Bay Rays team that has been around league-average against righties, collectively hitting to a .322 wOBA and striking out 25.5% of the time.

While the matchup is not a great one, DeGrom is an elite pitcher than can dominate in any game. His $11,500 price tag is steep, but he is more than capable of paying that off in this one. He’s the top cash game option on the slate and warrants guaranteed prize pool (GPP) consideration as well.

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Values

Lance McCullers Jr.’s matchup is nothing to write home about, but at just $8,700 on FanDuel, he offers sneaky upside for the price. The Seattle Mariners, his opponent, hold a .314 wOBA on the season against righties, which is slightly below league average. While McCullers’ season numbers (3.97 FIP, 8.8 K/9) don’t jump off the page either, he is still capable of putting together dominant performances. In his last start, he threw seven innings of shutout baseball, allowing just two hits while striking out eight batters. That said, given the inconsistency we’ve seen out of him from start-to-start this season, he’s best served as a GPP option.

Adam Wainwright has a good matchup against a Kansas City Royals team that has been near the bottom of the league against right-handed pitching, collectively hitting to a .298 wOBA and striking out a relatively high 24.5% of the time. His $9,500 price tag is a bit higher than we’d like to see for a pitcher that typically lacks high-end upside, but he’s shown lately that he’s capable of paying off his price. In his last four starts, he’s scored 50+ FanDuel points in two of them. This matchup against the Royals has all the makings of a third.

Fastballs

German Marquez gets a tough matchup against a San Francisco Giants team that has the 10th-best wOBA (.329) in all of baseball against right-handed pitching. Their 22.2% strikeout rate is also very low, making this a less-than-ideal spot for him on Monday. As the fifth most expensive option on the slate on FanDuel, he’s an easy fade.

On the other side of that game, Johnny Cueto is an interesting name for GPPs. The Colorado Rockies are a good matchup on paper — their .298 team wOBA against righties is fourth-worst in all of baseball. The Rockies are also not the same team away from Coors Field, so the upside for a solid performance is there tonight. That said, Cueto has been very inconsistent, with scores ranging from 10 up to 41 over his last five starts. He shouldn’t be considered in cash games, but he will be sparsely-owned in tournaments with sneaky upside relative to his $8,000 price on FanDuel.

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Notable Stacks

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man on DraftKings (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
• 1. Ronald Acuna Jr. (R)
• 2. Freddie Freeman (L)
• 3. Marcell Ozuna (R)
• 4. Travis d’Arnaud (R)

• 6. Ozzie Albies (S)

Total Salary: $26,200

The Atlanta Braves take on rookie Trevor Rogers, who has struggled so far during his time in the majors. In 21 innings pitched, he’s pitched to a 5.23 FIP and has allowed 2.1 HR/9 so far. This won’t fly against a powerful Atlanta Braves team that is number one in the league against righties with a .367 wOBA. Their .232 ISO is second to only the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Ronald Acuna Jr. has been otherworldly against righties, hitting to a .451 wOBA and .402 ISO this season. Freddie Freeman has been even better with a .502 wOBA and .364 ISO.

Their implied team total of 5.4 runs is the second-highest on the slate, so they’ll be popular. That said, it would be foolish not to get at least a piece of this offense on Monday night.

The St. Louis Cardinals also rank highly as a four-man stack on FanDuel (per the Bales Model):
• 1. Kolten Wong (L)
• 3. Tommy Edman (S)
• 3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)
• 4. Brad Miller (L)

Total Salary: $12,100

The St. Louis Cardinals match up extremely well against rookie right-hander Carlos Hernandez, who has struggled so far this season to the tune of a 7.04 FIP. He’s also allowing 2.9 HR/9, a number that he’ll have to lower substantially if he wants to stick around in the big leagues.

Paul Goldschmidt has been excellent against righties with a .392 wOBA in 171 plate appearances against them so far this season. Kolten Wong also stands out as an elite value at his $2,700 price tag. As the projected leadoff hitter, Wong has been much better against lefties, collecting a .327 wOBA.

The Cardinals have a slate-high 5.5 implied team total and are -171 favorites in this one at the time of writing, so they’ll undoubtedly carry some ownership tonight.

Other Batters

Ian Happ grades out extremely well in the Bales Model on Monday. He has an impressive .403 wOBA and .328 ISO against righties this year and takes on right-hander JT Brubaker in this one. He’s projected to lead off and carries a reasonable $3,100 price tag for the Chicago Cubs.

Corey Dickerson is a great value at just $2,800 on FanDuel. He’s expected to bat first against righty Huascar Ynoa and has a solid .327 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. He’s an excellent cheap option to include in either cash games or GPPs.