Wednesday’s mid-week main Major League Baseball slate features eight games and locks at 7:05 p.m. ET. For the first time this week, weather does not appear to threaten any game.
Pitchers
Four pitchers top FanDuel’s pricing:
- Robbie Ray (L) $10,600, TOR vs BOS
- Lance McCullers Jr. (R) $10,200, HOU vs CLE
- Kyle Hendricks (R) $9,900, CHC @ STL
- Julio Urias (L) $9,100, LAD vs SF
Robbie Ray gets some love against one of the better offenses in baseball. For as good as Boston has been, they have flaws against lefties, particularly in road games. The Red Sox are bottom 10 in Hard Hit rate and top 10 in BABIP. Boston also has the 12th highest Groundball-to-Flyball ratio against lefties and do not crack the top 10 in any traditional hitting categories except batting average. Ray has had a notable decrease in walks this season, something the Red Sox have been middle-of-the-road at doing.
This game has the highest projected game total, but largely because the Blue Jays are projected to score 6.2 runs. His salary is a bit higher than I would prefer on FanDuel, but there is no doubt he can accumulate strikeouts, give up some runs and still flirt with 40 FanDuel points. Ray rates more favorably in the Bales Model on DraftKings, where he’s priced as the second pitcher.
Lance McCullers Jr., who is the top-rated pitcher on FanDuel, is going against one of the worst offenses, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). Cleveland is bottom 10 in every major offensive category. The offense has the lowest road BABIP against righties, and there is little reason to say bad luck is going to turn good. Cleveland also does not take walks, one of the few flaws with McCullers (4.47 Walks Per 9). McCullers leads the position in Pro Trends on both platforms and has the highest projection on FanDuel.
Remember when it was legitimate to worry about Kyle Hendricks earlier this season? He is back to being his cyborg self and gets a chance to improve his career record against the St. Louis Cardinals. Hendricks is 12-3 with a 2.82 ERA in 23 starts against the Cardinals. He has allowed 15 home runs in 147 innings and a slash line against of .241/.285/.382. In games at Busch Stadium, Hendricks is 5-1 with a 2.73 ERA. His biggest downfall is lack of strikeouts and he is being supported by an up-and-down offense, but it is difficult to not lock the Cubs ace into DFS lineups.
Julio Urias is the top-rated pitcher on DraftKings, but has a 75% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. He will have his hands full against the San Francisco Giants. Their offense is top five in wRC+ and is tops in slugging and Home Run-to-Flyball ratio on the road against southpaws. I am OK fading Urias despite a strong offense behind him, because the Giants are better on the road than at home despite what seems like an advantage playing in the bay. Urias also had trouble with the Giants in Chavez Ravine, only scoring 12 FanDuel points. He posted 52 against them in San Francisco. Look for ownership around McCullers.
Value
It is ugly since Erick Fedde has some upside against the Marlins. The Nationals have outscored Miami, 24-4, in the first two games of their series. Despite a strong strikeout rate, Marlins starter Jordan Holloway has allowed 33 baserunners in 29 innings pitched and is supported by a .211 BABIP and Miami’s third-ranked defense. The Nationals are hitting better and I expect them to win in one of the closer matchups.
Fastballs
Adam Wainwright has been the Cardinals ace in 2021 which speaks more to their pitching issues than his success. He is a pivot off Hendricks and the Cubs because Chicago struggles against righties on the road. Only two teams strike out more and only three have a lower wRC+ this season.
Fading Michael Pineda and Dylan Cease in Chicago is recommended. Both pitchers have struggled against the opposing offense; Pineda has an .OPS against of .967, while Cease has an .OPS against of 1.001, the worst of any projected starter.
Hitters
Notable Stack
We go to Buffalo for the top stack on FanDuel via the Toronto Blue Jays:
- Marcus Semien (R)
- Vlad Guerrero Jr. (R)
- Bo Bichette (R)
- George Springer (R)
Total Salary: $15,900
The Blue Jays will cost a pretty penny against Garrett Richards but they have the highest projected run total. Bichette is the top-rated hitter on both platforms and is mispriced on FanDuel at $3,600.
Other Hitters
Akil Baddoo has double-digit fantasy points in three of four games since returning from the break. He has a .309 Weighted On-Base Average in July and is significantly better against right-handed pitching like Jordan Lyles of the Rangers.
Tim Anderson is hitting an otherworldly .667 against Michael Pineda with a 2.000 OPS in 18 at-bats.
If you want to target Cubs against Adam Wainwright, look at Jason Heyward and Ian Happ. The duo has nine homers and at least a .904 OPS against the veteran. Alternately, target the Cardinals’ best hitters against Kyle Hendricks. Eight of Paul Goldschmidt’s 12 hits against him have gone for extra bases, while Nolan Arenado has three home runs against Hendricks.
Yuli Gurriel has been lacking run production recently, but he has seven hits in his last three games and has another favorable matchup against Eli Morgan. Gurriel is only $2,600 on FanDuel.
