The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
FanDuel and DraftKings will offer 14-game all-day slate starting at 12:10 p.m. ET, and DraftKings’ eight-game early slate will start at 1:10 p.m. ET.
Both site’s five-game main slates will begin at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there is one pitcher who costs $10,000 or higher:
- Gerrit Cole (R), $11,800, HOU vs. COL
Cole is only available on the all-day or early slate on Wednesday. He has been dominant over his last 10 games, averaging a +10.03 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an 83% Consistency Rating. He’s in a favorable spot, drawing the Rockies away from Coors Field.
The Rockies have struggled against right-handed pitchers outside of Coors Field this season as they rank 26th or worse in ISO, wOBA and Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). Cole doesn’t need too much touting because we all know what he brings every night.
The Rockies are implied for a day-low 2.9 runs, and the Astros are massive -338 moneyline favorites. Per our Trends tool, pitchers with comparable salaries and moneyline odds have averaged an outstanding +6.19 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 72.7% Consistency Rating.
Values
Joey Lucchesi is a solid value with a 92% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. It’s a decent spot against a projected Mariners lineup that has a slate’s second-highest strikeout rate at a whopping 31%. He’ll enter this game with some of the best batted-ball data on the slate among starting pitchers today, allowing opposing hitters to average a 193-foot average batted-ball distance with an 88-mph exit velocity.
Rostering Lucceshi will allow easy access to expensive stacks and bats that have sizable implied run totals.
Brendon McKay has a 97% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and draws a matchup against the Blue Jays, who have a 26.6% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. They’ve been mediocre against lefties this year, ranking 22nd in wRC+ against them.
McCay rates out well in our models since he leads the whole day with a +13.38 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. And despite his higher price tag on DraftKings, he still has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the early slate. The main drawback from McKay is his low projected pitch count, so he’ll need to be efficient in the time he’s given.
Fastballs
Steven Matz: He’s in a good spot against a projected Marlins lineup that has a high 31.3% strikeout rate against lefties over the past year, not to mention they rank 27th or worse in ISO, wOBA and wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season.
James Paxton: He leads our median projections for the main slate against a projected Orioles lineup with a 26.3% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months. Paxton has been hit or miss over his last 10 starts, hitting salary-based expectations just 50% of the time.
Eduardo Rodriguez: The Red Sox are the second-largest favorite on the day with -304 moneyline odds against the Royals. He’s hit salary-based expectations 83% of the time over the past month, and he enters this game with great batted-ball data, holding hitters to a 178-foot average distance and 89-mph exit velocity.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top four-man DraftKings stacks for the early slate in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Houston Astros.
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. Michael Brantley (L)
- 4. Alex Bregman (R)
Total salary: $20,400
It’s not surprising to see the Astros rate out as the top stack for the early slate since their 5.7 implied run total is the highest total of the night at the time of writing. They’ll square off against Peter Lambert, who owns an abysmal 1.46 WHIP, 1.90 HR/9 and 6.92 K/9 over the last 12 months.
The Astros have been dominant this year against righties, ranking fifth or better in team ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Springer has been exceptional against right-handed pitchers over the past year, hitting them to the tune of a .386 wOBA and .255 ISO. He also has elite Statcast data over the last two weeks, evidenced by his 246-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 56% hard-hit rate.
Bregman has comparable metrics to Springer against righties, sporting a .397 wOBA and .253 ISO even though it’s a righty-righty matchup. Bregman continues to smash the ball, exceeding his 15-day/12-month distance differential, exit velocity and hard-hit rate by +36 feet, +6-mph and +23 percentage points.
The main drawback of this stack is you’ll have to dive into the lower tiers of pitching options to make it work.
One of the top FanDuel stacks for the main slate in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Boston Red Sox.
- 1. Mookie Betts (R)
- 2. Rafael Devers (L)
- 3. Xander Bogaerts (R)
- 5. Andrew Benintendi (L)
Total salary: $16,700
At the time of writing, the Red Sox’s 6.7 implied run total leads the main slate over the Yankees by a full a run. To no one’s surprise, it’s historically been +EV to target hitters in games with comparable implied run totals.
Per our Trends tool, hitters batting in the 1-5 spot in games with similar implied run totals have historically averaged a +3.03 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 50.6% Consistency Rating.
The matchup for this stack is as good as it gets considering Glenn Sparkman has allowed 24 hits, 18 earned runs, and six home runs over his last three starts. And this season he owns a poor 5.58 xFIP with a 6.9% K-BB%.
Betts has demolished right-handed pitchers over the last year, owning a .401 wOBA and .236 ISO. His Statcast data also shouldn’t be overlooked, boasting a 242-foot average distance with a 94-mph exit velocity over the last two weeks.
Overall, Betts, Devers and Benintendi all have average batted-ball distances of at least 239 feet along with exit velocities of at least 93 mph over the last 15 days. Given how pricy this stack is, you’ll likely need to roster Lucchesi or someone cheaper to be able to fill out the rest of your roster.
Other Batters
If you need some salary relief on DraftKings’ early slate, Stephen Piscotty will be on the positive side of his batting splits against Jose Quintana. Over the last year, Piscotty boasts an exceptional .406 wOBA and .254 ISO against left-handed pitchers. He’s a solid bargain with a 94% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
If you want to punt second base on the main slate, Brock Holt could be a viable target considering he costs just $3,300 on DraftKings and $2,300 on FanDuel. He’s projected to hit from the No. 6 spot in the order and is a cheap way to get exposure to Boston’s 6.7 implied run total.
If you’re not paying up for Devers, DJ LeMahieu is the most intriguing. His median projections narrowly trail Devers, and it would give you exposure to the Yankees’ high implied run total. LeMahieu has done well against lefties with a .401 wOBA and .259 ISO against them over the past year. If you play on both sites, you could roster LeMahieu on FanDuel where he has an 88% Bargain Rating and opt for Devers on DraftKings.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Joey Lucchesi
Photo credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
