The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 14-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Four pitchers on today’s slate own a salary of at least $10,300 on FanDuel:
- Jacob deGrom (R) $11,000, NYM @ CIN
- Shane Bieber (R) $10,700, CLE vs. PHI
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $10,400, LAD vs. COL
- Luis Castillo (R) $10,300, CIN vs. NYM
deGrom is squaring off with Castillo in Cincinnati, and he has the clear edge in this matchup. For starters, deGrom has been absolutely dominant over the second half of the season. He’s pitched to a 1.69 ERA and 2.29 FIP while increasing his K/9 to 11.36. He’s been particularly effective over his past two starts from a Statcast perspective, limiting opposing batters to an average distance of 178 feet and a hard hit rate of 14%. Both represent significant decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
He shouldn’t find a ton of trouble today vs. the Reds lineup. They’ve struggled against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .270 wOBA and 27.0% strikeout rate. deGrom’s resulting Vegas data is solid — 3.5 opponent implied team total, -171 moneyline odds — and his 9.1 K Prediction ranks first on the slate.
There are some other strong options to consider, but you can never go wrong with deGrom in cash games or guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Castillo’s matchup with the Mets is much more intimidating. Their projected lineup boasts a .334 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months, and they’ve struck out in just 23.6% of at-bats. Castillo has also struggled to duplicate his early season success after the All-Star Break, pitching to a 4.58 ERA. His opponent-implied team total of 4.6 runs is the highest mark in the stud tier by nearly a full run, and he also owns the lowest K Prediction. He doesn’t need to be on your radar.
Bieber stands out as the best pure value among the stud pitchers on FanDuel, where his price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.
He has a decent matchup today vs. the Philadelphia Phillies, who rank merely 20th in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the second half of the season. Bieber’s resulting Vegas data is respectable — he owns a 3.8 opponent implied team total and -193 moneyline odds — but it puts him well behind some of the other pitchers on the slate. He’s best used as a pivot in GPPs.
Kershaw rounds out the stud tier, and he’s in a dream spot today vs. the Colorado Rockies. They’ve been dreadful when playing on the road this season, ranking just 28th in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers. Meanwhile, Kershaw continues to absolutely dominate at home. He’s pitched to a 2.70 ERA at Dodger Stadium this season, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +1.99 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
His Vegas data in this matchup is unsurprisingly elite. He leads all pitchers with a 2.8 opponent implied team total and -380 moneyline odds, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.04 on FanDuel. He might not provide the same upside as deGrom — he owns a K Prediction of just 6.7 — but Kershaw has a safer floor at a lower price tag.
Value
Zack Greinke has struggled over his past 10 starts, posting an average Plus/Minus of -3.81 on FanDuel, but he’s started to turn things around. He’s allowed just one run over his past 12 innings, and he recorded seven strikeouts in his last start.
His Statcast data from his past two starts is also encouraging. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 187 feet, which represents a decrease of -17 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Los Angeles Angels, who are a lot less intimidating with Mike Trout on the IL. Their projected lineup has struggled to a .272 wOBA and 25.4% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Their implied team total of 3.1 runs is the second-lowest mark on the slate, and Greinke is also a massive -358 favorite. He’s still priced down a bit on FanDuel — he’s seen a price decrease of -$1,100 over the past month — so this is an excellent buy-low opportunity.
Mike Foltynewicz got off to a dreadful start this season, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five starts on DraftKings. He’s in an awesome spot today vs. the San Francisco Giants, who have been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball this season. They rank just 27th in wRC+ against right-handers, and their projected lineup has posted a .263 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months. He’s one of the better pitching values of the day on FanDuel, where his $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Fastballs
Dylan Cease: He’s taking on the Detroit Tigers, who have been the best team to target in fantasy this season. They rank dead-last in wRC+ and first in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, giving Cease excellent upside at a reasonable salary.
Anibal Sanchez: The Marlins are the only team that has been comparable to the Tigers in terms of futility vs. right-handers this season, and that’s who Sanchez squares off with today. He owns a 3.5 opponent-implied team total and -239 moneyline odds, and he’s underpriced at $8,100 on DraftKings.
Charlie Morton: He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, but he has a difficult matchup vs. the Boston Red Sox. Still, he’s worth some consideration on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 96%.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
- 1. Mitch Garver (R)
- 2. Jorge Polanco (S)
- 3. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 4. Eddie Rosario (L)
- 5. Miguel Sano (R)
Total Salary: $25,300
Rostering the Twins top stack is going to set you back quite a bit on today’s slate, but they still represent one of the top team targets. Their implied team total of 6.7 runs ranks first on the slate by a comfortable margin, as does their Team Value Rating of 87 on DraftKings.
They have immense upside today vs. Royals left-hander Eric Skoglund. He’s pitched just 14.0 innings this season, but he’s been hammered to the tune of a 8.36 ERA and 8.48 xFIP. The Twins rank second in wRC+ and first in ISO against southpaws, so things don’t figure to get any easier for Skoglund today.
Garver is really expensive for a catcher at $5,500, but no one at the position can match his upside. For starters, he’s expected to occupy the lead-off spot in the lineup, which is extremely rare for a catcher. He’s also done immense damage vs. left-handed pitchers this season, posting a 203 wRC+. Basically, this guy is an elite hitter who just happens to catch. He enters this contest in elite recent Statcast form, posting a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +20 feet and hard hit differential of +8 percentage points.
If you’re looking to go in a cheaper direction, consider the Milwaukee Brewers. They own one of the top four-man FanDuel stacks on today’s slate:
- 1. Lorenzo Cain (R)
- 2. Yasmani Grandal (S)
- 3. Ryan Braun (R)
- 5. Tyler Austin (R)
Total Salary: $11,300
The Brewers implied team total of 5.3 runs is much more modest, and it ranks merely tied for seventh on the slate. That said, they are significantly less expensive, and their Team Value Rating of 90 ranks second on FanDuel. That’s important on a slate with lots of stud pitchers to choose from.
They’re taking on Pirates left-hander Steven Brault, who has pitched to a 4.98 ERA and 5.25 xFIP this season. He’s been far worse when pitching outside the friendly confines of PNC Park, owning a 5.77 ERA on the road. Each of the stacked batters will have the splits advantage against him, and Brault has had lots of trouble putting away right-handers in that situation. He’s managed a K/9 of just 5.93 when facing right-handers on the road, so the Brewers should put a lot of balls in play against him at a bare minimum.
Austin is dirt-cheap at $2,400 on FanDuel, but he’s posted a .347 wOBA and .253 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months. He’s also smoked the ball over the past 15 days, averaging a batted ball distance of 255 feet, exit velocity of 98 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 50%. He has much more upside than his current salary suggests.
Other Batters
Ronald Acuna went yard yesterday, making him the second youngest player in MLB history to post a 40 HR season. He’s now just three steals away from the 40/40 club, and he’s in a wonderful spot today vs. Giants right-hander Tyler Beede. Beede has pitched to a 5.79 ERA outside of San Francisco this season, and the Braves are currently implied for 5.7 runs. Acuna’s Statcast data from the past 15 days is also outstanding, so there’s no reason to knock him on today’s slate.
If you’re looking for some savings on DraftKings, Yolmer Sanchez could be your guy. He’s expected to bat lead-off for the Chicago White Sox, who are currently implied for 4.7 runs. He’s also really cheap at just $2,700, and lead-off batters with comparable salaries and implied team totals have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.52 on DraftKings. He should help you fit an expensive pitcher or stack into your lineup.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Twins C Mitch Garver (23)
Photo Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
