The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 15-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Four pitchers on today’s slate have a salary of at least $10,200 on FanDuel:
- Stephen Strasburg (R) $11,500, WSH vs. CWS
- Hyun-jin Ryu (L) $11,200, LAD @ ARI
- Blake Snell (L) $11,000, TB @ DET
- Kyle Hendricks (R) $10,200, CHC vs. COL
The Nationals have really struggled this season, but don’t blame Strasburg. He’s putting together arguably his best MLB season, pitching to a 2.68 FIP and 11.16 K/9 through his first 12 starts. He’s been even better over the past month, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +4.31 on FanDuel.
Strasburg is in a wonderful spot today against the White Sox. Their projected lineup has really struggled vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, posting a .266 wOBA and 25.9% strikeout rate. Their implied team total of 3.2 runs is tied for the lowest mark on the slate, and Strasburg is also a massive -258 betting favorite. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data have posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.54 (per the Trends tool).
Strasburg’s K Prediction of 8.1 also ranks third, so he checks all the boxes on today’s slate.
Ryu has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball this season. He’s pitched to a ridiculous 1.48 ERA, which is the top mark among qualified starters by nearly half a run.
His Statcast data from his past two starts is also impressive. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 178 feet, exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 31%. All three represent significant decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Unfortunately, he has a brutal matchup today vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks. Their projected lineup has destroyed southpaws over the past 12 months, posting a .364 wOBA and 19.4% strikeout rate. The low K rate in particular is concerning since Ryu isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher to begin with. The result is a K Prediction of just 4.4, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and salaries have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of -1.25. He’s tough to roster in any format given the price.
Snell has a strong case for the top spot among today’s pitchers. He ranks first in three key pitching categories: Opponent implied team total (3.2 runs), moneyline odds (-270), and K Prediction (8.7). Snell has been one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball over the past 12 months, posting a K/9 of 11.71, and the Tigers’ projected lineup has posted a 28.4% strikeout rate against southpaws over the same time frame.
Snell has dominated over his past five starts, pitching to a 1.78 ERA and 12.46 K/9. The result is an average Plus/Minus of +6.02 on DraftKings. It’s a tough call between Snell and Stasburg, but the extra strikeout upside gives Snell a slight edge.
Hendricks is the toughest stud pitcher to make a case for on today’s slate. He has a decent matchup vs. the Colorado Rockies – their offense is very mediocre when playing away from Coors Field – but his opponent implied team total of 4.2 runs is still the highest mark in this tier by a significant margin. His K Prediction of 4.7 is also only slightly better than Ryu’s.
Values
Chris Paddack could easily be considered a stud on today’s slate. He’s coming off a poor start in his last outing, surrendering four runs over five innings vs. the New York Yankees, but he’s still pitched to an elite 2.40 ERA and 9.91 K/9 this season.
He offers comparable marks to Snell and Strasburg today at a slight discount. He owns an opponent implied team total of 3.4 runs and K Prediction of 7.5, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +1.83 on DraftKings.
His Statcast data from his past two outings also suggests he’s due for some better results. He’s posted an average distance of 203 feet, exit velocity of 91 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 38%, all three of which represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
If you’re looking for a cheaper SP2 on DraftKings, consider Atlanta’s Max Fried. He’s priced at just $7,800, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86%.
He’s also been really effective from a Statcast perspective over his past two starts, allowing batters to post an average distance of 183 feet, exit velocity of 91 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 29%. Fried isn’t really a strikeout pitcher, so his ability to limit damage on balls put in play is important.
He has a nice matchup vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates, who rank 27th in wRC+ vs. left-handers this season. Pitching in Pittsburgh also rewards Fried with a Park Factor of 87, which is the top mark on the slate.
Fastballs
Madison Bumgarner: He’s taking on the New York Mets, who have been anemic offensively of late. Their projected lineup has also posted a strikeout rate of 28.1% over the past 12 months.
Noah Syndergaard: Thor has really struggled this season, pitching to a 4.90 ERA, but his 3.62 FIP suggests he’s due for some regression. That could start today vs. the Giants, who are implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs.
Chase Anderson: He’s priced at just $7,200 on DraftKings and has an appealing matchup vs. the Marlins, which makes him a viable option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Right-handed pitchers have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.74 vs. the Marlins this season.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 2. Max Muncy (L)
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 4. Cody Bellinger (L)
- 5. Corey Seager (L)
Total Salary: $26,000
The Dodgers’ top stack is going to set you back quite a bit on today’s slate, but they have massive upside. Their implied team total of 5.7 runs is the third highest mark on the slate, and they get a big park upgrade moving from Dodger Stadium to Chase Field. They already rank second in wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers this season, so they can do some real damage in a hitter’s park.
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cody Bellinger
They’re taking on Diamondbacks starter Taylor Clarke, who has been pretty mediocre in his first major league season. He’s pitched to a 4.76 FIP while managing a paltry 5.71 K/9. Left-handed batters in particular have feasted on him, posting a .394 wOBA and clubbing two HRs over nine innings.
That could spell trouble vs. the Dodgers. Most of their top bats are left-handed, and all five of the stacked batters have a wOBA of at least .364 vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. Bellinger in particular has obliterated right-handed pitching this season, posting a .500 wOBA and .370 ISO. It’s hard to envision a scenario where Clark is able to keep this lineup down.
Unfortunately, stacking the Dodgers likely means passing on the top pitching options. If you’re looking for a cheaper option, consider the Tampa Bay Rays:
- 1. Yandy Diaz (R)
- 2. Tommy Pham (R)
- 4. Avisail Garcia (R)
- 5. Mike Zunino (R)
Total Salary: $13,200
Their implied team total of 5.4 runs is tied for fifth on the slate, and their Team Value Rating of 87 ranks second on FanDuel. Garcia and Pham are the best pure values on FanDuel – they own Bargain Ratings of 92% and 84% respectively – but both players are currently listed as questionable. You’ll need to make sure they’re actually in the lineup if you choose to stack them on today’s slate.
They’re taking on Tigers left-hander Ryan Carpenter, who has pitched to an abysmal 7.58 ERA this season. It’s a small sample size of just 19.0 innings, but he also pitched to a 7.25 ERA over 22.0 major league innings last year. It’s fair to say he’s been overmatched at the MLB level.
He’s been particularly inept at keeping balls in the ballpark. He’s already allowed six HRs this season, and five of those have come against right-handed batters. You need HRs to win a GPP, and the Rays have the ability to provide them in bunches on today’s slate.
Fastballs
The Cubs own the highest implied team total of the day at 6.4 runs, which makes them an appealing team to target. Kyle Schwarber stands out as the projected leadoff hitter at just $3,900 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 94%, and leadoff hitters with comparable implied team totals and salaries have historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +1.32. He’ll also have the splits advantage vs. Rockies right-hander Jeff Hoffman.
Ronald Acuna is another leadoff batter who should be on your radar. He’s taking on Pirates left-hander Steven Brault, and Acuna has posted a .448 wOBA and .349 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months. He’s way too cheap at $4,500 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 91%.
Khris Davis has only played two games since returning from injury, but he’s crushed the baseball in those contests. He’s posted an average distance of 252 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 57%, and that kind of contact should lead to strong fantasy production moving forward. He’s someone to consider buying low on.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Phillies SP Aaron Nola (27)
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
