Welcome to MLB Opening Day 2021!
Thursday’s slate features 11 games and starts at 1:05 p.m. ET. The game between Baltimore and Boston has been postponed due to rain.
Pitchers
The best part about Opening Day is every team starts their ace pitcher.
Here are the high-priced options on FanDuel:
- Shane Bieber (R) $11,500, CLE @ DET
- Gerrit Cole (R) $11,000, NYY vs TOR
- Yu Darvish (R) $10,700, SD vs ARI
- Tyler Glasnow (R) $10,000, TB @ MIA
It’s no surprise to see Shane Bieber atop the pricing list. The reigning American League Cy Young winner gets a matchup against one of the worst teams in baseball based on 2021 expectations. Bieber had the highest Strikeouts per 9 Innings (K/9) and was tied for the highest percentage of quality starts last season. He also is tied at the top among today’s probable pitchers with seven Pro Trends.
Gerrit Cole has the highest projected fantasy point production on FanDuel according to the Bales Model. His 2.43 Projected Plus/Minus is the highest among the top pricing tiered pitchers. Cole’s ability to pitch deep into games will be put to the test against a young, improved, and potent Toronto Blue Jays lineup. His penchant for the occasional blow-up and inconsistent strikeout numbers is why he is $500 less than Bieber.
Only one team hit fewer home runs than the Arizona Diamondbacks and they did not acquire much new pop this winter. Yu Darvish has allowed 0.653 Home Runs per 9 Innings (HR/9) over the past 12 months, third best on the slate and the best among the elite pitchers. His road start against Arizona is a great way for him to get re-acclimated with the National League West.
Tyler Glasnow is the surprise among the top priced pitchers. It is easy to plug-and-play him based on his matchup against the Miami Marlins, but matchups do not guarantee wins. He is the least likely among the top four pitchers to pitch into and past the sixth inning and is more likely to require more pitches to get through five, according to the Bales Model. The Tampa Bay bullpen is already battling injuries and a No Decision from a player at his price is realistic.
Values
Luis Castillo starts his 2021 campaign against the St. Louis Cardinals. Acquiring Nolan Arenado is great for St. Louis, but there are more duds than studs in its lineup. Besides Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt has seen his Slugging Percentage drop in four straight seasons and the future of the Cardinals offense rests on Dylan Carlson and his 110 career at-bats.
Another theme to follow today is weather. Each game east of the Mississippi River is expected to have less than ideal temperatures and some have a small percentage of rain in the forecast. Cardinals-Reds is a part of that theme.
You may look at Chad Kuhl and say, ‘hard pass.’ I get it, but the weather in Chicago is going to be abhorrent with the wind projected to be blowing in at 15 mph. At $6,300 on FanDuel, Kuhl could be the savings you need and a pivot off opponent Kyle Hendricks. Kuhl is also the cheapest pitcher on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Brad Keller is another to save salary as Kansas City welcomes Texas to Kauffman Stadium. He has less upside with a 5.6 projected strikeout total, but Texas has little to scare opponents offensively and is already short relievers. Keller is also tied for second among pitchers with six Pro Trends. He is a name to consider especially if you play multiple lineups.
Fastballs
Aaron Nola tops the Bales Model today. He is priced as the sixth pitcher on FanDuel but has the fourth best projection. Atlanta is an imposing opponent, which should keep DFS players away from Nola. He has a 92% Bargain Rating, tops among pitchers.
Brandon Woodruff is another pitcher priced below his projections. The 28-year old had an impressive 11.12 K/9 in 2020 and faces a Twins roster that struck out 24.4% of at-bats last season. Despite new faces in Minnesota, majority of them do not scare me off Woodruff in another cold game.
Clayton Kershaw and Jack Flaherty are great for their own reasons but have one flaw – allowing home runs. Both aces are top 10 in HR/9 among today’s starters. Kershaw is pitching in Colorado against the Rockies. The matchup looks good based on the Rockies’ offseason but I am not a fan. Flaherty travels to Cincinnati where the winds will be blowing out to right field. The Reds are a team where positive offense regression is realistic after a down 2020.
Notable Stacks
No surprise the top stack today comes from the game with the highest projected run total, according to our Vegas Model.
- Cody Bellinger (L)
- Justin Turner (R)
- Corey Seager (L)
- Mookie Betts (R)
Total Salary: $17,400
The foursome projects for 57.3 FanDuel points against German Marquez and the Rockies. That said, rostering all four hampers roster construction, so playing three of the four is going to offer some relief. Another way to get pieces of this game total is to roster two Dodgers and run it back with one Rockies hitter at low ownership.
Other Batters
Tommy Pham is the top-rated outfielder against Madison Bumgarner and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Pham hit .300 and had a Weight Runs Created Plus (wRC+) of 161 against left-handed pitching. That means he was 61% better against lefties than league average. Among the big names in San Diego’s loaded lineup, Pham is one that may get overlooked. He is a top five overall play on DraftKings.
If Points Per Salary and Projected Plus/Minus are metrics that you favor, the top play is Cleveland Indians outfielder Jordan Luplow. He is leading off for Cleveland against the Detroit Tigers and is $2,200 on FanDuel. Luplow is a top 10 overall play on FanDuel.
Yoshi Tsutsugo is in line for more at-bats with Ji-Man Choi on the shelf because of knee surgery. The Tampa Bay Rays have a penchant for changing lineups daily and the opening at first base helps Tsutsugo at third base. He is the top rated Rays hitter and is only $2,600.
Carlos Santana may not be the power threat he once was, but in fantasy getting on base is important. The Royals are projected to score 5.1 runs against Texas and Santana is going to be in the meat of Kansas City’s lineup.
