The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 15-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Four pitchers on today’s slate own a salary of at least $10,500 on FanDuel:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $12,000, HOU vs. TOR
- Max Scherzer (R) $11,600, WSH vs. ARI
- Lucas Giolito (R) $11,400, CWS vs. NYY
- Blake Snell (L) $10,500, TB vs. LAA
Cole has blossomed into one of the best pitchers in baseball after being traded to the Astros two years ago. His 3.72 ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but his 2.37 xFIP suggests he’s been significantly unlucky to start the season. On a positive note, he’s increased his K/9 to a career-best 13.82, which is the top mark among qualified starters by more than a full strikeout.
He’s in a phenomenal spot today vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. Their projected lineup has struck out in 27.0% of at bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, which could spell trouble against an elite strikeout pitcher like Cole. His current K Prediction of 9.2 is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin.
Cole also possesses arguably the best Vegas data on the slate. He’s a massive -280 favorite, and his opponent implied team total of 3.0 runs is tied for the lowest mark on the slate. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.67 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
He’s easily the top pitching option on the slate and should command massive ownership in all formats.
Scherzer has been an elite pitcher for years, but he’s putting together arguably his best season at 34 years old. He’s pitched to an unreal 2.04 FIP while striking out 12.28 batters per nine innings. He also leads all pitchers with 3.8 wins above replacement (per Fangraphs).
Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA Today Sports. Pictured: Max Scherzer
Unfortunately, he has a tougher matchup today vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks. He lags behind Cole in each of the three big pitching categories: 3.3 opponent implied team total, -173 moneyline odds, 7.6 K Prediction.
He’s an interesting option for guaranteed prize pools – the presence of Cole will likely result in lower ownership than usual – but Cole seems like the superior option for cash games.
Giolito was once considered the best pitching prospect in baseball, and he’s finally starting to put it all together with the White Sox. He was absolutely dreadful last season, pitching to a 6.13 ERA over 32 starts, but he’s lowered that figure to just 2.28 in 2019. If baseball had a most improved player award, Giolito would be a lock.
He’s been particularly strong recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +15.29 on DraftKings over the past month and has struck out 15 batters without allowing a run over his past 15 innings.
That said, he gets a big step up in weight class today vs. the New York Yankees. Their projected lineup has dominated vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .344 wOBA, and they’re implied for 4.2 runs. This current version of the Yankees also isn’t as strikeout prone as we’ve seen in the past, giving Giolito a mediocre K Prediction of just 5.8.
The Yankees scored four runs off Giolito over five innings in their first meeting this season, but that was before he started dominating everyone he faced. Regardless, this is a really stiff test.
Snell rounds out the stud quartet, and he’s an interesting option vs. the Los Angeles Angels. It’s a brutal matchup – their projected lineup has posted a .365 wOBA and paltry 18.5% strikeout rate vs. southpaws over the past 12 months – but Snell’s opponent implied team total of 3.0 runs is still tied for the top mark on the slate. He’s also increased his K/9 to 12.25 this season, so he has big strikeout upside regardless of opponent.
Snell is particularly appealing on DraftKings, where his $10,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 77%.
Values
Rich Hill has been one of the stingiest pitchers in baseball recently, allowing just five earned runs over his past 30 innings. He’s also displayed nice strikeout upside over that time, whiffing 38 total batters.
He’s a nice value today on FanDuel, where his $9,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 76%. He has a decent matchup vs. the Chicago Cubs and provides a nice combo of Vegas data (3.6 opponent implied team total) and strikeout upside (8.4 K Prediction). Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.22.
He has the potential to provide similar production to the high-priced options at a slight discount.
If you’re looking for a true value at SP2 on DraftKings, Zach Davies is your guy. He’s priced at just $6,800, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 94%, and he has one of the best matchups possible vs. the San Francisco Giants. Their projected lineup has been anemic vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a wOBA of just .223.
Davies has also posted some impressive Statcast data over his past two starts. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 188 feet and a hard hit rate of just 23%, both of which represent significant decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Pitching in San Francisco also rewards him with a Park Factor of 93, which is the top mark on the slate.
Fastballs
Eduardo Rodriguez: He’s posted a K/9 of 10.03 over the past 12 months and has a strong matchup vs. the Baltimore Orioles. His K Prediction of 7.3 is tied for sixth on the slate, and he’s also a strong -195 favorite.
Cal Quantrill: He should garner very little ownership at Coors Field, but he has nice upside at just $5,000 on DraftKings. He’s struck out 16 batters over his past 11 innings, and the Rockies have historically been less potent against right-handed pitchers.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Oakland Athletics:
- 1. Marcus Semien (R)
- 2. Mark Canha (R)
- 3. Matt Chapman (R)
- 4. Khris Davis (R)
- 5. Stephen Piscotty (R)
Total Salary: $20,900
The A’s are currently implied for 5.2 runs, which is tied for the third-highest mark on the slate. They’re also priced reasonably, resulting in a Team Value Rating of 70 on DraftKings.
They’re expected to roll out a righty-heavy lineup vs. Mariners left-hander Marco Gonzales, who has struggled this season. He’s pitched to a 4.77 ERA, and he’s posted a 5.43 xFIP against right-handed batters. His Statcast data from his past two starts is also concerning, particular his average distance of 235 feet. That represents an increase of +22 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
Canha stands out as the projected No. 2 hitter. He’s absolutely destroyed left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .381 wOBA and .305 ISO. He’s also outperformed his 12-month average distance over the past 15 days.
Davis looks like the best pure value of the bunch at just $4,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 94%.
On FanDuel, the top four-man stack belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
- 1. Mookie Betts (R)
- 2. Andrew Benintendi (L)
- 3. J.D. Martinez (R)
- 5. Xander Bogaerts (R)
Total Salary: $16,300
This stack is expensive, but saving salary dollars on FanDuel isn’t nearly as important as it is on DraftKings. The Sox are in one of the best offensive spots of the day, evidenced by their implied team total of 5.6 runs.
They’re taking on Orioles right-hander Jimmy Yacabonis, who has pitched to a dreadful 6.11 ERA and 6.44 FIP in the majors this season. He hasn’t been much better in the minors, owning a 4.91 ERA and 5.17 FIP at the AAA level. He could be in for a long evening against a potent Red Sox lineup.
Photo credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez
Benintendi has gotten off to a slow start this season, but he owns some of the most impressive Statcast data on the slate over the past 15 days. He’s posted an average distance of 264 feet, which represents an increase of +43 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Batters with comparable distance differentials, implied team totals, and lineup spots have historically raked, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.99 on FanDuel.
He’s an elite hitting target even if you aren’t stacking the Red Sox.
Other Batters
JaCoby Jones is not someone who typically does a lot of damage with his bat, but he’s been destroying the baseball over the past 15 days. He’s posted an average distance of 266 feet, exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 55%, all of which represent massive increases when compared to his 12-month averages. He’s projected to bat leadoff at just $2,800 on FanDuel, which makes him a nice potential source of savings.
Nelson Cruz leads all hitters with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he has crushed the ball since returning from the injured list eight games ago. He’ll be on the negative side of his splits vs. Royals right-hander Brad Keller, but Cruz has still displayed immense power vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. He’s expected to bat third for the Twins, who are currently implied for a slate-best 5.8 runs.
Austin Dean is projected to bat leadoff for the Marlins, which makes him an interesting punt play at just $3,400. It’s rare to find a leadoff hitter priced below $3,500, but they’ve historically provided an average Plus/Minus of +0.93. He’s also made solid contact over the past 15 days, posting an average exit velocity of 94 miles per hour and hard hit rate of 41%.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Houston Astros P Gerrit Cole
Photo credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports
