The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 14-game slate starting at 3:40 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers on today’s slate own a salary of at least $10,000 on FanDuel:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $11,700, NYY @ BAL
- Jacob deGrom (R) $11,200, NYM vs. BOS
- Max Scherzer (R) $10,900, WSH @ TOR
- Sonny Gray (R) $10,000, CIN vs CHC
Cole comes into his second start in a Yankees uniform against Baltimore. The 29-year-old has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past few years, finishing with a strikeouts per nine innings pitched (SO/9) of 13.8% last season, the best in MLB.
Cole is the highest-priced pitcher and the second-rated pitcher on the Bales Model for this slate. He has a 6.61 Projected Plus/Minus, the highest projected score at 47.8 as well as the highest ceiling at 79.6 and floor at 6.5. The Yankees are -350 favorites, the largest on today’s card, and Baltimore has a week lineup that I expect Cole to take advantage of.
Back Cole with confidence as I expect a strong outing from the 29-year-old righty.
DeGrom was dominant in his opening day start, firing five clean innings with eight Ks. The 32-year-old continues to dominate and is looking to become the third-ever pitcher to win the Cy Young three years in a row.
Now he comes into his second start of 2020 with the highest rating on the Bales Model at 74.58. He’s s projected for 45.9 points, has a ceiling of 76.3 and a floor of 6.2.
deGrom takes the mound against a top-heavy Boston lineup. Andrew Benintendi is the only player to have a positive Projected Plus/Minus for Boston today. The rest of the lineup is projected to finish below their projected points total. Boston is struggling out of the gate in 2020 and has a 1-4 record.
I look for deGrom to continue his dominance today against Boston. Back deGrom with confidence.
Scherzer comes into his second start of 2020 against Toronto. The 36-year-old struggled on opening day against a very tough Yankees lineup. He comes into this start with a 46.28 projected point value, a ceiling of 77.2 and a floor of 6.2. His stuff was on full display on opening night against New York as he had a 12.518 SO/9. Scherzer has the third-highest rating at 70.31 according to the Bales Model.
Rob Carr/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Scherzer
Toronto is a young lineup that strikeouts a lot. The Blue Jays have four hitters who strike out more than 30% of the time they step up to the plate. I expected Scherzer to be able to get a lot of strikeouts in this one. Toronto does not have one-hitter with a rating better than 60. Scherzer is projected for 46.28 points. Back him with confidence.
Gray is coming off an opening day masterpiece as he shut down Detroit to pick up the win. The 30-year-old has a much tougher matchup this time against the Cubs. Chicago has been hitting everything in-site putting up 16 runs in the first two games of the series.
Gray has a 48.45 rating according to the Bales Model. He has a ceiling of 45.8 and a floor of 4.4. His Projected Plus/Minus is -5.15. Gray’s points/salary is three, which is below average. He looked great against Detroit with a 10.875 SO/9, but Chicago is a much better offensive team than Detroit.
Chicago has four players coming into this one with a rating over 64. This is a tough matchup for Gray and with such a steep price I would stay away. There are better options out there today.
Values
Lance Lynn revived his career in Texas in 2019 and started 2020 off on the right foot. The-33-year-old was dominant against Colorado with an 11.66 SO/9. He faces off against an Arizona offensive that is not as dangerous as Colorado’s offense can be.
Lynn has a projected salary of 38.3 with a ceiling of 61.6 and a floor of 5.4 according to the Bales Model. He is projected to finish with a Plus/Minus of 7.61 and a 4.3 points/salary. Lynn faces off against Madison Bumgarner who has struggled on the road the past few years. Lynn has a great chance for a win in this one.
Lynn is the fifth-rated pitcher according to the Bales Model with a rating of 66.03. He can be found at FanDuel at a price of $8,900. There is value on Lynn in this one.
German Marquez is coming off a strong opening day start in which he faced Lance Lynn and Texas. The 25-year-old will face Oakland in his second start of 2020. Marquez has been much better on the road than at home and should fare well in the spacious RingCentral Coliseum.
Marquez is projected for 36.09 points with a ceiling of 55.5 and a floor of 5.4. His Projected Plus/Minus is 6.9 and his points/salary is 4.2. Marquez is the sixth-highest rated pitcher according to the Bales Model with a rating of 63.77. He can be found on FanDuel at a price of $8,500.
Fastballs
- Andrew Heaney: He looked very sharp in his opening day start against Oakland. The 29-year-old faces off against the Mariners, who have one of the weakest offenses in the MLB. This is a great spot for Heaney who is priced at FanDuel at $7,100.
- Frankie Montas: He has a very high Projected Plus/Minus in this one with an 8.27 score. He is Oakland’s best pitcher and is coming off a strong opening day start. He draws a tough matchup in this one against Colorado, but the Rockies are not as scary offensively on the road as they are at Coors Field. Montas can be found at the price of $7,700 at FanDuel. Montas is a risky pick but has a lot of upside in this one.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man FanDuel stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
- 1. David Fletcher (R)
- 2. Mike Trout (R)
- 3. Anthony Rendon (R)
- 4. Justin Upton (R)
- 5. Shohei Ohtani (L)
Total Salary: $17,300
The Angels just got back superstar third basemen Anthony Rendon. All five players listed above have a rating of 70+ according to the Bales Model. Their Plus/Minus is all positive. They face off against Justin Dunn, who pitched to an 8.15 xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) in 2019.
This will be Dunn’s first start of 2020. Trout stands out as one of the best hitters on the Slate as he has not gotten off to a great start, but now he has protection. Dunn will be forced to pitch to Trout with Rendon behind him. Dunn is the lowest-rated pitcher according to the Bales Model with a 26.72 rating.
Rendon homered in his first game back and looks to already be in mid-season form. The Angels implied team total of 5.8 ranks first in today’s slate. The Angles offense broke out for 10 runs last night and I expect more of the same today.
On Draft Kings, the top four-man stack belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
- 1. Max Kepler (L)
- 2. Josh Donaldson (L)
- 3. Jorge Polanco (S)
- 4. Nelson Cruz (R)
Total Salary: $16,500
The Twins have four players listed above with a rating of 71 or higher according to the Bale Model. The Twins are a better offensive team at home and get to face with very little experience. St. Louis will send to the mound Daniel Ponce de Leon. Ponce de Leon had a 4.72 xFIP in 2019.
The Twins implied team total of 5.7, which ranks second. Cruz sticks out as the best option as he is priced at a salary of $4,400 which offers a Bargain rating of 92%. Cruz has been one of the most consistent hitters over the past few years.
Other Batters
Nikko Goodrum is priced at a crazy low price on FanDuel of $2,500. This gives him a bargain rating of 92%. Goodrum has been hitting leadoff for Detroit this year, which gives him more opportunities than ever before. He is rated on the Bales Model at 74.95. Back Goodrum with confidence in this one.
If you are looking for a value option to round out your lineup on DraftKings, consider Goodrum’s teammate Miguel Cabrera, who has come into 2020 in great shape and has been hitting the ball with authority. He is priced at Draft Kings at $3,000 and has a bargain rating of 94%.
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