The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nearly full slate. Both DraftKings and FanDuel offer a 12-game main slate starting at 3:40 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Tyler Glasnow (R) $9,700, TB vs. ATL
Glasnow comes into his first start of 2020 as the highest-priced pitcher on FanDuel. The 26-year-old is coming off a year in which he missed 121 days with a strained forearm. When healthy last year Glasnow was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He had a 1.78 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 12.1 SwK and a 175 BPV in 61 IP. Health is the only thing holding Glasnow back from being a real threat to win the Cy Young. He is healthy coming into this start, and when Glasnow is healthy he is a guy you want to back.
He gets to face off against Mike Folytnewicz and the Atlanta Braves. Glasnow does not have much experience against Atlanta. The current Atlanta roster has only had a total of 27 PA against Glasnow. Look for Glasnow to get 2020 started on the right foot and back him with confidence today.
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow (20)
Fastball
Josh James (R) $6,700, HOU vs SEA
James makes his first start of 2020 after just one start in 2019. James does not have a lot of Major League innings under his belt, which is part of the reason he is underpriced. The 27-year-old is coming off a year in which he had a 4.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 16.6 SwK and 138 BPV in 62 IP. James got a little unlucky last year as his xERA was 3.70. He struck out 100 batters in 2019 showing everyone that his stuff is nasty.
James was a starter his whole career until he was called up to the majors. He came up as a starting pitcher in 2018 but was transitioned into the bullpen for the postseason. In 2019 he was expected to be the fourth starter, but suffered shoulder inflammation and returned as a key member of the Houston bullpen. Now in 2020, he is getting his chance to start.
James faces the Seattle Mariners tonight and has held the current Seattle roster to a .190 BA in his career. Seattle is not a strong offensive team, especially when it is missing its top hitter in Mitch Haniger. If you are looking for a cheaper starting pitcher today, there is no better guy to back then James.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top four-man on DraftKings (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Detroit Tigers:
- Nikko Goodrum (S)
- Jonathan Schoop (R)
- Miguel Cabrera (R)
- C.J. Cron (R)
Total Salary: $14,100
Today’s top four-man stack on FanDuel (per the Bales Model) also features the Detroit Tigers:
- Nikko Goodrum (S)
- Jonathan Schoop (R)
- Miguel Cabrera (R)
- C.J. Cron (R)
Total Salary: $13,200
Detroit is returning home to face the Kansas City Royals. Kansas City is sending Mike Montgomery to the mound. Montgomery is coming off a year in which he posted a 4.95 ERA. The 31-year-old lefty is not very good, and Detroit’s lineup is filled with righties. Look for Goodrum and Detroit to take advantage of Montgomery in this one.
Cron hit .253 with 25 HR and 78 RBI in 2019 and he only had 458 AB. He had a .263 xBA saying he got a little unlucky. He now gets to be a full-time first baseman for Detroit and has room to grow. Cabrera hit only 12 HR in 2019 and had a PX of 64. His xPX was 93 which shows he got a little unlucky and should have been an 18-HR hitter. He got 2020 off to a solid start over the weekend homering off Michael Lorenzen.
Other Batters
Eugenio Suarez is coming off a career year in 2019 as he hit 49 HR, 103 RBI, 3 SB and a .271 BA in 585 AB. He gets to face off against Jon Lester today. In his career vs Lester, he has a .381 BA and 6 HR in 42 AB. Those are ridiculous numbers and he is priced at a reasonable rate of $3,400 on FanDuel.
Jose Altuve is coming off a career-high 31 HR in 2019. Altuve has changed as a hitter throughout the years but has always been one of the game’s best. He gets to face off against Kendall Graveman today who he has hit well in the past. In his career off Graveman, he has hit .360 with 1 HR in 25 AB. His xBA is .391. Altuve is the highest-priced second basemen, but he is worth every penny. You can find Altuve priced at $4,000 on FanDuel.
