The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and Predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a split slate that varies by site. DraftKings’ early slate (five games) starts at 1:10 p.m. ET, and FanDuel’s early slate (six games) begins at 12:10 p.m. ET. The four-game main slate for both sites starts at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are two pitchers who cost at least $10,000 or more:
Clayton Kershaw threw just three innings and 55 pitches against the Mets in his first start back from the DL. Kershaw did throw an extra inning in the bullpen after he was pulled from the Mets game, so he likely could’ve gone longer. Provided he can keep his pitch count in check, Kershaw could be a serviceable option against a projected Cubs lineup that boasts a 27.4% strikeout rate against lefties during the past year.
Additionally, the Dodgers have favorable Vegas data, boasting -180 moneyline odds and the Cubs are implied for a mere 3.2 runs. However, I still believe there is some risk backing Kershaw given he’s still working his way back from injury, and the Cubs rank 10th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against lefties this season (FanGraphs).
Lance McCullers is the top-priced option on the main slate. He’s in excellent recent form, limiting his past two opponents to an average batted-ball distance of 199 feet, exit velocity of 89 mph and 21% hard-hit rate. McCullers’ 6.7 K Prediction is the third-highest mark on the slate, and the Astros own the slate’s highest moneyline odds (-154) against a Rays team implied for a slate-low 3.4 runs. On a four-game slate, McCullers will come heavily owned, and rightfully so as pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have historically been solid investments (per our Trends tool):
Values
Tanner Roark costs just $7,100 on DraftKings’ main slate. While the Nationals are sporting +126 moneyline odds and the Phillies are implied for 4.4 runs, Roark could bolster his floor with his 7.4 K Prediction given the projected Phillies lineup has a slate-high 28.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have been serviceable value plays on DraftKings:
Mike Leake has been consistent over his past 10 games on DraftKings, averaging a +4.99 Plus/Minus with 70% Consistency. Leake doesn’t have a ton of upside (5.6 K Prediction), but he can grind out innings and the matchup against the Orioles is one of the best on the board. Over the past year, the Orioles boast a 28.1% strikeout rate and low .297 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against right-handed pitchers. They also rank 26th in wRC+ against righties this season. Leake’s 92% Bargain Rating makes him appealing as an SP2 option. Additionally, the Mariners have -140 moneyline odds, the second-highest mark on DraftKings’ early slate. The primary knock on Leake is the Orioles’ 4.4 implied run total, which could warrant some pause.
Fastballs
Zach Greinke: He’s only available on FanDuel’s early slate unless you choose to play the all-day slate on DraftKings. Greinke has a sublime matchup against a projected Marlins lineup that owns a 27.2% strikeout rate and .294 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Greinke’s 7.9 K Prediction is among the highest on the slate and the Diamondbacks are the early slate’s (FanDuel) second-biggest favorite (-146 moneyline odds).
Aaron Nola: The Phillies are slight -129 moneyline favorites, but Nola has a pedestrian 5.7 K Prediction against a projected Nationals lineup that has a 22.5% strikeout rate against righties over the past year. However, he has solid recent batted-ball data with a 198-foot average distance, 89-mph exit velocity and 29% hard-hit rate. Additionally, the Nationals rank 22nd in wRC+ against righties this season, and their projected lineup has a pedestrian .316 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past year. Nola has historically dominated at home, averaging a +6.97 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 71.4% Consistency. While there are indeed reasons to like Nola, his upside may be limited in this spot given the Nationals’ low strikeout rate.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man main-slate DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Red Sox, who are implied for 5.6 runs:
Boston’s implied run total trounces everyone else on the slate and they will square off against Jaime Barria, who has atrocious Statcast data over the past 15 days: He’s allowing a recent batted-ball distance of 236-feet, exit velocity of 95-mph and hard-hit rate of 56%.
With the exception of Christian Vazquez, the other stacked Red Sox possess exceptional power against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months:
J.D. Martinez always stands out considering he owns a .445 wOBA and .378 isolated power (ISO), but he’s absolutely crushing the baseball with a 234-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 41% hard-hit rate. Martinez, Mitch Moreland, and Mookie Betts all have average distances of at least 234 feet over the past 15 days. On a positive note for Vazquez, he possesses 45% hard-hit rate over his past seven games, which represents a 15-day/12-month differential of 20-percentage points.
The top early-slate four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Twins, who are implied for 5.1 runs:
It’s an appealing matchup for the Twins against Lucas Giolito, who is averaging a -9.42 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his past 10 starts, and allowing a 236-foot average batted-ball distance over his past two starts.
Eduardo Escobar is generating an abundance of hard contact over the past 15 days, evidenced by his 94-mph exit velocity and 46% hard-hit rate. Additionally, Escobar has smoked right-handed pitchers over the past year to the tune of a .375 wOBA and .280 ISO. Eddie Rosario is in the same realm as Escobar, sporting an elite .415 wOBA and .285 ISO. The Twins may be a popular stack as they’re one of two teams with an implied run total over 5.0 on the early slate.
Other Batters
Mitch Haniger and the Mariners have the highest implied run total (5.2) on the early slate. Haniger is projected to hit from the No. 3 spot and he’s hit righties well over the past 12 months, sporting a .353 wOBA and .222 ISO. Historically, hitters in games with similar implied run totals, hitting from a comparable lineup spot have averaged a +1.84 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Haniger is an excellent value on FanDuel with a 90% Bargain Rating.
Tim Anderson may go low-owned since he’s projected to hit from the No. 7 spot, but he looks like like a candidate for positive regression with his +39 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) Score. Anderson is obliterating the baseball over the past 15 days with a 250-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate. He’s sporting an absurd +51-foot 15-day/12-month distance differential. Hitters with comparable batted-ball metrics and lineup spots have historically averaged a +1.69 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Anderson is an appealing GPP option at a low cost.
Eric Thames has an astonishing amount of power for a hitter who is projected to hit leadoff. In the past year, Thames has an elite .374 wOBA and .287 ISO. His .157 wOBA differential and .238 ISO differential are top marks among the first baseman on the main slate. It’s also a bonus that Thames is in tremendous batted-ball form with a 247-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate. This is an excellent spot for Thames against Anthony Desclafani, who is allowing a 229-foot average distance and 92-mph exit velocity over his past two starts.
Mike Trout is obviously in play Thursday with his .438 wOBA and .255 ISO against left-handed pitchers during the past 12 months, but so is Justin Upton, who has crushed lefties with outstanding .433 wOBA and .355 ISO. While Upton is on a cold streak with his average +0.42 FanDuel Plus/Minus over the past month, he’s generating an exceptional amount of hard contact in his past 10 games: Upton boasts a 233-foot average distance, along with a massive 97-mph exit velocity and 51% hard-hit rate. The Angels are one of two teams implied for at least 5.0 runs on Thursday’s main slate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: J.D. Martinez
Photo credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
