The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 15-game all day slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 1:05 p.m. ET. DraftKings also has a six-game early slate beginning at the same time.
Both site’s nine-game main slates start at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are four pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Chris Sale (L) $11,500, BOS vs. CWS
- Trevor Bauer (R) $11,200, CLE vs. KC
- Mike Minor (L) $10,100, TEX @ DET
- Charlie Morton (R) $10,000, TB @ MIN
Sale is easily the top option of the day as he leads all pitchers in floor, median and ceiling projections in our models by a significant amount. He’ll enter this game allowing opposing hitters to average an 88-mph exit velocity and 17% hard-hit rate over his last two starts, which is among the best marks of starting pitchers today.
He’s got a great matchup against a projected White Sox lineup that has a 27.7% strikeout rate and wOBA of just .296 over the past 12 months against left-handed pitchers. Overall, Sale leads the day in K Prediction (10.5), opponent implied run total (3.1) and moneyline odds (-354). Historically, it’s been profitable to target pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data as those pitchers have averaged a +8.21 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 68.4% Consistency Rating, per our Trends tool.
Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chris Sale
Considering Bauer is just $300 less than FanDuel and carries a 20% Bargain Rating over there, it’s easier to just plug in Sale if you’re paying up for pitcher on FanDuel’s early or all-day slate. The projected Royals lineup has an abysmal .298 wOBA against righties over the past year, but they also don’t strike out a ton, sporting a 21.4% strikeout rate, which could limit Bauer’s upside in this spot. Furthermore, Bauer has an xFIP of 4.45 along with a 16% K-BB% this season, which isn’t exactly what you’re looking for in a pitcher that costs this much.
Minor has a favorable matchup against a projected Tigers lineup that has a 28.7% strikeout rate and .306 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. However, it’s not ideal that the Rangers are underdogs in this spot. It’ll be a poor pitching environment as this game features a Weather Rating of 47 with warm temperatures and the wind blowing out to left center. Minor’s +1.89 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel makes him one of the worst values on the main slate.
Morton isn’t in a good spot against the Twins and is also one of the worst values on the slate with a +1.27 Projected Plus/Minus. The Twins are implied for 4.6 runs, and they’ve demolished right-handed pitchers this year, leading the league in team ISO against them and ranking third in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+).
Values
Framber Valdez is an interesting punt option on both sites, especially on DraftKings where he has an 86% Bargain Rating if you want to load up on bats. Valdez has a 3.90 xFIP through his first three major-league starts, and he put together back-to-back solid outings against the Orioles and Blue Jays before he got lit up by the Yankees in his last start. A matchup against a Pirates offense that ranks 28th against lefties in wRC+ this year could be what he needs to get back on track. He won’t have much strikeout upside in this spot, but at his price tag, you won’t need much out of him.
Fastballs
Patrick Corbin: He’s my preferred cash-game option on the main slate. At the time time of writing, the Marlins’ 3.4 implied run total is the lowest mark on the main slate, and they rank 29th or worse against lefties this season in ISO, wOBA and wRC+.
German Marquez: He’s mostly just in play on FanDuel’s early only slate that starts at 3:05 p.m. ET since has a 93% Bargain Rating there. He has a solid 3.44 xFIP and 19% K-BB% this year, and he’ll be on the road against the Giants, giving him a Park Factor of 93.
Matt Boyd: You can make a case for him as he’s up against a projected Rangers lineup with a 28.3% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. And Boyd possesses a 3.50 xFIP along with a 25.2% K-BB% this season. The main concern is the Rangers’ 4.5 implied run total with hitter-friendly weather conditions.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top four-man early-slate DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 2. Alex Verdugo (L)
- 3. Max Muncy (L)
- 6. Matthew Beaty (L)
Total salary: $17,700
The Dodgers are implied for 5.5 runs against Arizona righty Taylor Clarke, who has been abysmal this season, pitching to a 5.48 xFIP with an 11.1% K-BB% this year. He’ll enter this game in poor form, allowing opposing hitters to average a 277-foot average batted-ball distance, 97-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate.
The matchup against the righty will put Pederson on the positive side of his batting splits. He’s smashed right-handed pitchers over the past year, hitting them to the tune of a .369 wOBA and .316 ISO. Muncy will also be on the positive side of his splits, sporting a .400 wOBA and .287 ISO. Additionally, his 96-mph exit velocity and 43% hard-hit rate could pair well with Clarke’s troublesome Statcast data.
The top FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.
- 1. Scott Kingery (R)
- 2. Jean Segura (R)
- 3. Bryce Harper (L)
- 4. Rhys Hoskins (R)
Total salary: $15,400
At the time of writing, the Phillies’ 5.8 implied run total leads the main slate (though there are currently five games without odds). They’re in a good spot against Jason Vargas, who has been worse than his 3.75 ERA suggests since he possesses a 5.30 xFIP, along with a subpar 8.1 K-BB% this year.
Kingery will be on the positive side of his splits, owning a .350 wOBA and .206 ISO against lefties over the past year. He’s also in excellent form, boasting a 262-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 55% hard-hit rate, all of which exceed his 15-day/12-month differentials by a substantial amount. Kingery’s eight Pro Trends leads the entire main slate.
Harper leads this entire stack with a .383 wOBA and .254 ISO against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Overall, he owns a +17-foot distance differential, along with a 95-mph exit velocity over the past two weeks, which could bode well for Harper since Vargas has a +12-foot distance differential, including a 93-mph exit velocity allowed to opposing hitters over his last three starts.
Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Bryce Harper
Other Batters
If you want exposure to the Yankees’ 6.3 implied run total on the early slate, you could make a case for Luke Voit or Edwin Encarnacion as your first baseman on DraftKings. Both hitters have Bargain Ratings over 80% and have nearly identical Statcast data over the past two weeks. However, Voit is slightly cheaper and has a .403 wOBA and .257 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past year, compared to a .357 wOBA and .247 ISO for Encarnacion, respectively.
If you need some salary relief, Robinson Cano is cheap on both sites. He’s hit right-handed pitchers decently well over the past year, hitting them to the tune of a .330 wOBA and .194 ISO. Cano carries the top Projected Plus/Minus among second basemen on both DraftKings and FanDuel for the main slate.
Matt Carpenter owns a top-two Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and FanDuel against Daniel Mengden. The Cardinals are implied for a healthy 5.5 runs against the A’s and Carpenter has the benefit of hitting from the leadoff spot, along with the ability to hit right-handed pitching well, evidenced by his .366 wOBA and .248 ISO.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Bryce Harper and Jean Segura
Photo credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
