The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate. There’s a four-game early slate starting at 3:07 p.m. ET and a nine-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Two pitchers on today’s slates stand out above the rest on FanDuel:
- Jacob deGrom (R) $11,500, NYM @ KC
- Hyun-jin Ryu (L) $10,700, LAD @ ATL
deGrom hasn’t been as dominant this season as he was last year, when he posted a 1.70 ERA and 1.99 FIP en route to the NL Cy Young award. That said, he’s still been awesome. He’s increased his K/9 to 11.49, which is the best mark of his career.
deGrom also stands out with his consistency. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in 14 of his past 15 starts, and he allowed just three earned runs in the lone exception. He’s been particularly effective over the past month, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.72 on FanDuel.
He has a wonderful matchup today vs. the Kansas City Royals. Their offense has been pedestrian against right-handers this season, ranking just 24th in wRC+. deGrom’s resulting Vegas data is strong: 3.5 opponent implied team total, -202 moneyline odds. Pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically been good investments, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.34 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
deGrom also owns a K Prediction of 7.4, which ranks third on the slate. He’s a strong option for both cash games and guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Ryu is the current frontrunner for this year’s NL Cy Young award given his sparkling 1.45 ERA. His strikeout numbers are mediocre – he’s posted a K/9 of just 7.63 – but he makes up for it by limiting the damage on balls in play.
His Statcast data from his last start is particularly impressive. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of just 169 feet, which represents a decrease of -21 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
Unfortunately, he’s in a difficult spot today vs. the Atlanta Braves. They’re currently implied for 4.5 runs, which is high considering the matchup. Historically, pitchers with comparable price tags and opponent implied team totals have struggled to a Plus/Minus of -3.21 on FanDuel.
That said, Ryu could still be an interesting option for GPPs on DraftKings. He’s a better value at just $10,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 77%, and he has more strikeout upside than usual against the Braves. They’ve posted the fifth-highest strikeout rate against left-handers since the All-Star break. Ryu should also command reduced ownership, which further increases his appeal.
Values
Ryan Yarbrough has been a nice value recently on DraftKings, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.73 on DraftKings. He dominated in his last outing, recording eight strikeouts over 8.2 shutout innings against the Seattle Mariners.
He’s in another elite spot today vs. the Detroit Tigers. Their projected lineup has been dreadful against left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .267 wOBA and a 25.7% strikeout rate. Yarbrough owns the arguably the best Vegas data on the slate, ranking first in opponent implied team total (3.2 runs) and second in moneyline odds (-275).
Yarbrough’s Statcast data from his past two starts is also excellent. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 168 feet, exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 20%. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and recent Statcast marks have been amazing options, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.84 on DraftKings. It’s hard to look past deGrom whenever he’s available, but Yarbrough appears to be the superior option today.
The Red Sox get to take on the Baltimore Orioles, who have become the punching bag for the rest of the AL East. That puts Eduardo Rodriguez squarely on the DFS radar. He’s a -328 favorite, which makes him the largest favorite on the slate. His opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs ranks third.
Rodriguez has seen a dip in his strikeout numbers this season, but he still offers considerable strikeout upside on today’s slate. The Orioles have posted the highest strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitchers.
Fastballs
German Marquez: He’s pitching at Coors Field, which is always alarming for a starting pitcher. That said, he has an elite matchup vs. the Miami Marlins, whose projected lineup has posted a .263 wOBA and 36.1% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. His $7,600 salary on FanDuel also results in a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: German Marquez
Trent Thornton: He has solid Statcast data from his past two starts and owns a solid matchup vs. the Seattle Mariners. Their projected lineup has struggled to a .278 wOBA and 27.0% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Dinelson Lamet: He possesses arguably more strikeout upside than every other pitcher on the slate. He’s pitched to a K/9 of 12.60 over the past 12 months, and the Phillies projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 29.0% against right-handers over the same time frame. Lamet has recorded 19 strikeouts over his past 12 innings, making him an elite option for GPPs.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
- 1. Eric Sogard (L)
- 2. Tommy Pham (R)
- 3. Ji-Man Choi (L)
- 5. Austin Meadows (L)
- 8. Mike Zunino (R)
Total Salary: $22,500
The Rays are currently implied for 5.4 runs, which is one of the top marks on the early slate. They’re taking on Tigers right-hander Jordan Zimmermann, who has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. He’s pitched to a dreadful 7.13 ERA, and he’s managed just 6.50 strikeouts per nine innings.
He’s struggled in particular against left-handed batters, which could spell trouble against the Rays. Left-handers have posted a .405 wOBA against Zimmermann this season, and three of the Rays top five batters are expected to bat from the left side.
Choi is one of those batters, and he’s posted a .372 wOBA and .197 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months. He’s also smoked the ball over the past 15 days, posting an average distance of 263 feet, exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 57%. He leads the team with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his $4,200 salary is very reasonable considering the matchup.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- 1. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 2. Trevor Story (R)
- 3. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 6. Ryan McMahon (L)
Total Salary: $17,500
The Rockies are playing at Coors Field, which will make them a popular target. They lead all teams with an implied team total of 7.5 runs, and their Team Value Rating of 95 on FanDuel ranks first as well.
They have an appealing matchup vs. Marlins right-hander Hector Noesi, who will be making just his third start of the season. In fact, this is just his third start since 2016, and he’s pitched to a 8.18 ERA and 7.59 FIP since resurfacing. He’s also allowed four HRs over just 11.0 innings, which doesn’t bode well for his success at Coors Field.
He’s been particularly poor against right-handed batters, allowing them to post a .387 wOBA and a .640 slugging percentage. Story enters this contest in elite recent form, posting an average distance of 239 feet, exit velocity of 99 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 54%. Story has also improved against right-handers this season, posting a 174 wRC+ when facing a right-hander at Coors.
Other Batters
Miguel Sano remains discounted on FanDuel, where his $3,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s expected to occupy the No. 3 spot in the lineup, and the Twins are currently implied for 6.5 runs. They’ll benefit from some of the besting hitting conditions on the slate in Arlington, resulting in a Weather Rating of 93. Overall, there’s nothing not to like with Sano on today’s slate.
Trent Grisham is expected to bat leadoff for the Brewers, which makes him a nice source of savings at just $2,900 on DraftKings. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits for Nationals right-hander Anibal Sanchez, and Grisham has posted a .430 wOBA and .308 ISO against right-handers this season.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Rays P Ryan Yarbrough (48)
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
